In February 2022, the automobile sales volume reached 1.737 million, with a chain comparison of – 31.4% and a year-on-year comparison of 18.7%. The sales volume of passenger cars reached 1.487 million, with a month on month increase of – 32.0% and a year-on-year increase of + 27.8%, slightly exceeding market expectations. The terminal started the inventory replenishment process. The sales volume of commercial vehicles reached 250000, with a month on month decrease of – 27.4% and a year-on-year decrease of – 16.6%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles reached 334000, a year-on-year increase of + 184.3%.
Matters: on March 11, 2022, China Automobile Industry Association released the automobile production and sales data in February 2022. Our comments are as follows:
Total volume of vehicles: 1.737 million vehicles were sold in February, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.7%, in line with expectations. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in February 2022, China’s automobile production was 1.813 million, with a chain comparison of – 25.2% and a year-on-year increase of + 20.6%; In February, the sales volume was 1.737 million, with a month on month increase of – 31.4% and a year-on-year increase of + 18.7%. Vehicle inventory increased to 815000 from 741000 at the beginning of the month. On the whole, although the chip supply was still tight in February, the worst time had passed, and the demand for export and inventory replenishment appeared.
Passenger cars: in February, the sales volume of passenger cars was 1.487 million, and the export growth rate was better than that of the whole. In February 2022, the production / sales of 1.534 million vehicles / 1.487 million vehicles respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 26.1% / – 32.0% and a year-on-year ratio of + 32.0% / + 27.8% respectively. On the one hand, the year-on-year growth was driven by the export of passenger cars, but also benefited from the demand for inventory replenishment. In February, 146000 passenger cars were exported, with a month on month growth rate of – 21.0% and a year-on-year growth rate of 72.3%, which exceeded the overall growth rate of passenger cars. In terms of models, the year-on-year growth rates of sales of cars, SUVs, MPVS and crossover passenger cars were + 28.4%, 29.6%, + 12.9% and – 9.5% respectively. In terms of structure, the sales volume of independent brands in February was 634000, a year-on-year increase of + 27.9%, and the market share of independent brands in a single month was 42.6%, the same as that in the same period last year.
The average daily wholesale and retail sales decreased slightly month on month, which is basically in line with the fluctuation law during the Spring Festival in history. Excluding the Spring Festival holiday, the actual effective production and sales days in February were 21 days. The average daily wholesale sales of passenger cars in February reached 70000, with a month on month ratio of – 7.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 15.1%, an increase of 9.1% compared with February 2019; In February, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars reached 59000, with a month on month increase of – 21.1%, a year-on-year increase of – 10.3%, an increase of 26.7% compared with February 2019. From the data of average effective sales days per day, the overall demand for passenger cars remained stable and did not fluctuate much. In February, the average daily wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles was 15000, with a month on month increase of + 5.0% and a year-on-year increase of + 170.4%.
Commercial vehicles: in February, the sales volume of commercial vehicles was 250000 units, with a year-on-year decrease narrowed. In February 2022, the output of commercial vehicles was 279000, with a month on month ratio of – 19.2% and a year-on-year ratio of – 18.3%; The sales volume was – 16000, a year-on-year increase of – 4.0%. The year-on-year decline in production and sales narrowed by 9.7 and 8.5 percentage points respectively compared with January. According to the models, the sales volume of heavy truck, medium truck, light truck and micro card was 59000 / 11000 / 123000 / 33000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 49.9%, – 9.8%, + 4.5% and + 21.7% respectively. The sales volume of heavy trucks in February was slightly lower than the market expectation. It is expected that the year-on-year decline of sales volume of heavy truck industry in the first half of the year will remain under pressure. In February, the production and sales of passenger cars were 2.523000 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of – 5.3% / – 3.6%. Among them, the sales of large passenger cars and medium passenger cars were 20 / 1700 respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 26.1% / + 4.7% respectively.
New energy vehicles: in February, the sales volume was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of + 184.3%, continuing the high growth trend. In February 2022, 368000 and 334000 new energy vehicles were produced and sold respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 18.6% and – 22.6% and a year-on-year ratio of + 197.5% and + 184.3% respectively. Among them, 354000 and 321000 new energy passenger vehicles were produced and sold in February, with a month on month ratio of – 19.0% and – 23.4% respectively, and a year-on-year ratio of + 195.0% and + 182.2% respectively. The sales volume accounted for 21.6% of the passenger vehicle market, which was further improved compared with January (19.2%). In February, the production and sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 15000 / 13000 respectively. In terms of models, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 285000 / 258000 in February, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7/1.6 times respectively; The production and sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles were 83000 / 75000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1 / 3.4 times respectively. Considering the continued high lithium price and crude oil, we continue to be optimistic that the proportion of PHEV will continue to increase this year.
Risk factors: macroeconomic growth rate is down; The sales volume of the industry is lower than expected; The implementation of consumption incentive policies did not meet expectations.
Investment strategy: in February, the industry production and sales data were released smoothly, the sales volume of new energy vehicles continued to maintain year-on-year growth, and the demand for replenishment of inventory began to appear after the Spring Festival. The overall data slightly exceeded the market expectation. Due to the impact of the supply chain caused by the rise in the price of raw materials and the risk of war, the valuation of the automotive industry has been sharply adjusted recently, and the market has gradually reached a consensus on the risk factors of the industry and the profit reduction of the sector. In the parts sector, we give priority to the targets with strong performance stability: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.Ltd(300680) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) . In the passenger car sector, we mainly recommend three new car making forces: ideal car, Xiaopeng car and Weilai car, as well as Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (a + H) with the reversal of independent brands, Byd Company Limited(002594) (a + H) with the strong power of DM-I, and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (a + H) leading personalized consumption.
