Recently, the market continues to perform poorly, and various theories are circulating. Some people think that the fund is being redeemed on a large scale, others say that the weighted private placement has been closed in a large number, and others say that the snowball products have knocked in and caused a sharp drop. What’s the real situation?
Recently, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released the report “analysis of recent investor behavior in A-share market”. On the basis of the report, the reporter also combined some of the report views of Haitong and Shen Wan. According to the report, there is no forced selling caused by tight liquidity in the overall dimension of public offering. Jimin not only has no large-scale redemption, but even shows signs of bottom reading, “the more you fall, the more you buy”.
private placement has little pressure on the overall liquidation, and no sign of forced liquidation of quantitative funds has been observed again recently. In this round of market crash, we should not overestimate the negative feedback effect brought by snowball products. The recent net outflow of funds from the North may be due to the net redemption of overseas China Fund for two consecutive weeks and the active sale of hedge funds
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the recent adjustment of the A-share market may still be related to the manager’s initiative to reduce positions and adjust positions when the market sentiment is weak.
Jimin did not redeem on a large scale, but copied the bottom
In terms of public offering, the new issuance of the fund has remained depressed since February, but the net redemption rate of the surviving fund has decreased slightly compared with January.
In February, the newly established scale of equity fund was 13.7 billion yuan, down 79% month on month. Since the beginning of March, the new development scale of equity products has reached 16.4 billion yuan, showing signs of marginal improvement. However, channel research shows that as the profit-making effect of the A-share market continues to weaken and the purchase intention of retail customers remains depressed, some fund companies still choose to postpone the issuance plan.
A surviving fund is another case. The application and redemption of existing products are stable, and passive ETFs continue to receive subscription funds Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) channel research shows that the surviving products are not facing the pressure of large-scale redemption with the market decline. On the contrary, the weekly net redemption rate continues to remain at a low level. According to the data, passive equity ETFs have continuously maintained the status of net subscription in January, February and March, with the scale of net subscription funds reaching 58.3 billion yuan, 1.9 billion yuan and 14.4 billion yuan respectively. Whether it is all kinds of growth track ETF or Baijiu ETF, it has been net purchase since March, reflecting that the people still have the intention to “copy the bottom” through the surviving products.
Generally speaking, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) judged that there was no forced selling caused by tight liquidity in the overall dimension of the public offering industry. Of course, in terms of structure, the survey also found that some banking institutions’ funds and fofs redeemed equity public offering products due to greater net value pressure, or the special account actively reduced its positions and adjusted its positions.
However, about 80% of the equity public offering comes from individuals rather than institutions, so the application and redemption of retail customers has a greater impact on the public offering as a whole.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) has a similar conclusion. In the past three years, the market has retreated three times, namely, the impact of the global epidemic in March 2020, the sharp decline of core assets in February 2021 and the sharp decline of growth stocks since December 2021. In these three market declines, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) found that the fund had not been redeemed. In March 2020, the fund subscribed more than 100 billion yuan, in March 2021, and in January this year, the fund subscribed more than 100 billion yuan. In contrast, in 2018, whether from the annual level or the monthly level, the fund was net redeemed when the market fell.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that according to the above calculation data, individual investors did not redeem a large number of funds in the recent decline as the market thought, but “bought more and more when they fell”. Behind this change is the trend of residents’ asset allocation to the equity market. Behind this change is the trend decline of real estate demand caused by the change of population age structure, and the scarcity of high-yield financial assets under the background of breaking the rigid exchange.
no sign of quantitative fund closing is observed again
In terms of private placement, there is little pressure on the overall liquidation. Recently, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has not observed any sign of forced liquidation of quantitative funds again.
According to the statistics of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the number of private placement products with unit net worth of more than 1 yuan at the beginning of 2022 but less than 0.8 yuan / 0.7 yuan as of March 9 accounted for 0.9% and 0.3% of the total number respectively. On March 9, the products with a net value of 0.8-0.85 yuan had the greatest pressure to reduce their positions, but they only accounted for 0.8% of the total quantity. CITIC believes that although the proportion of quantity is not as large as that of scale, it can also reflect that the overall liquidation pressure of the private placement industry is not large.
For the rapid adjustment of CSI 500, the market was once worried that there would be another passive liquidation of quantitative private placement or a sharp reduction of positions due to the knocking in of snowball products Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that from the performance of CSI 500 stock index futures, the average discount of futures relative to the index since March is 11 points, and there is no rapid rise in water. Therefore, it is judged that there is no sign of forced liquidation of private placement.
“For snowball products, we learned from our research that the intensive knock in range of existing snowball products is still lower than the current stock index futures point, so snowball is still in the state of falling and buying, which is not the leading factor in the recent stock index adjustment.” Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) means.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) also believes that the negative feedback effect brought by snowball products should not be overestimated. Shen Wan said that when distributing snowball products, the issuer will consider the decentralization of observation points and knock in prices. And the existing snowball products should be far from the maturity date, and the position amplification pressure during critical point hedging is controllable. Therefore, based on the characteristics of decentralization and hedging, it can be judged that even if there are a small number of knock in hedging operations in the varieties issued since September, the market waves may be far less than the effect of stabilizing the market brought by a large number of other snowball products in this process. Therefore, in this round of market crash, we should not overestimate the negative feedback effect brought by snowball products.
why does the northbound capital flow out
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the recent net outflow of northbound funds may be due to the net redemption of overseas China Fund for two consecutive weeks and the active sale of hedge funds.
What kind of funds are running away in the northbound funds? CITIC said that the net outflow of northward funds since February mainly came from trading funds, but the net outflow of allocation funds also began last week. During the 23 trading days from February 7 to March 9, the cumulative net inflow of funds allocated / traded / entrusted to domestic Hong Kong funded institutions was 21.2 billion yuan / – 36.7 billion yuan / – 4.5 billion yuan respectively.
It is understood that the net outflow of trading funds or the corresponding is the active reduction of hedge funds behind it. The trading funds hosted in foreign investment banks are mainly hedge funds, which pay attention to short-term trading opportunities and have obvious timing characteristics. In the first week after the Spring Festival (February 7-11), trading funds once had a net inflow of 6.6 billion, but turned into a continuous net outflow with the deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, with a cumulative net outflow of 43.3 billion yuan from February 14 to March 9.
The industry structure of the recent reduction of trading funds has obvious risk aversion characteristics. Taking the rapid reduction stage from March to now as an example, the net outflow of trading funds in various industries has obvious online correlation characteristics with the market value scale held, and its correlation coefficient reaches – 56%, reflecting that the sale of trading foreign capital is not a position adjustment for individual industries, It is more likely to be a systematic reduction.
On the other hand, the net outflow of allocation funds may be caused by the continuous net redemption of overseas China related funds (especially ETFs) in the past two weeks. The current net redemption pressure is lower than that in the fermentation stage of Evergrande storm last year. Unlike transaction funds, the allocation funds entrusted to foreign banks are less selective, and generally maintain a relatively stable net inflow.
