Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the bottom of the market has been confirmed twice, and A-Shares are about to usher in a resonant rise in value and growth
Recently, due to the superposition of internal and external risks, A-Shares have had a serious emotional catharsis, and there have been three serious deviations. At the same time, with the arrival of the three critical points, the market bottom has been confirmed twice, and A-Shares are about to usher in the resonance upward of value and growth.
On the one hand, the recent A-share overshoot seriously deviates from the tone of China’s loose policy and stable growth; Investor sentiment is seriously deviated from China’s sound economic fundamentals; The current valuation level of A-Shares is seriously deviated from the historical and global comparable valuation level. On the other hand, it is expected that the expectation of the conflict situation between Russia and Ukraine will gradually enter the critical point of improvement; After the “two sessions”, the steady growth policy has entered the critical point of renewed force; Investors’ serious emotional venting and position reduction are also gradually entering the critical point. The “market bottom” of A-Shares has been confirmed for the second time, and will usher in the resonance upward of value and growth with the repair of the three deviations.
On the allocation, we should insist on the balanced distribution of style and industry, adhere to the main line of steady growth, continue to focus on the “Two Lows”, and focus on the future of lithium, photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, medicine and construction.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the time and space of market adjustment have been significant, and the upward space has been opened after the correction
The CSI 300 has experienced five rounds of decline. Referring to history, the time and space of this adjustment has been significant, and the market valuation is at a medium low level since 2013. There is little negative feedback pressure on Funds: the proportion of leveraged funds is not high, the net redemption of funds is not obvious, and the funds going north will flow out in the short term, but will still flow in the medium and long term. The market fluctuated throughout the year. The callback in the past two months has left room for the subsequent market to focus on value and growth attacks, such as photovoltaic wind power and data center cloud computing.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: grasp the first quarterly report after the boots are landed
A-share twists and turns ahead, and the rebound after the festival was realized as scheduled. When the international situation was tense and the risk aversion was high, the prices of bulk commodities such as crude oil and base metals rose rapidly last week (and then fell back), which triggered the market’s concern that the economic recession fell into stagflation. Superimposed on the deterioration of micro liquidity in the A-share market, there was a phenomenon of capital stampede to a certain extent: private equity funds were forced to sell their equity assets, And the decline of margin purchase and the rise of margin sales further expanded the short-term decline of the market. North facing funds, especially Allocation Oriented foreign capital, saw a systematic reduction of positions last week. The direction of new energy power generation and precious metals inflow of Allocation Oriented foreign capital against the market is worthy of attention. After the systemic risk of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is eased, foreign capital is expected to return to A shares. At present, the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike in March has been basically digested, and the growth style is expected to rebound after the interest rate hike is implemented. The environment of high inflation and high interest rate does not mean that growth loses. Industries in high business cycle represented by science and technology sector can still have excess returns.
The segments expected to exceed expectations will mainly focus on: 1) some cyclical products with upward boom, such as new energy metals / crude oil / non-ferrous metals / coal / shipping; 2) Among the steady growth sectors, banks / infrastructure central enterprises took the lead in the first quarter; 3) In the growth sector, CXO / photovoltaic modules / IGBT and semiconductor materials / military upstream / diaphragm and power battery leader / Gigabit broadband, etc., which still maintained a high boom in the first quarter and had no obvious damage to profitability; 4) The performance of thermal power / railway is expected to recover significantly in the first quarter of last year.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: it is expected to rebound in the short term, and the investment opportunity is in stocks with low-risk characteristics
The A-share market fell sharply. The core reason is that investors moved from pricing “inflation” to pricing “stagflation”. Geopolitical disturbance only accelerated this process. It is expected to rebound in the short term, but it will take a long time for market confidence to rebuild. After the short-term oversold and storm mode, A-Shares are expected to enter a phased rebound. However, before the demand side policy and the path of credit easing are fully clear, we believe that the pattern of declining investor profit expectations and rising discount rate expectations is still difficult to reverse in the short term, and it will take time to rebuild market confidence and optimize the micro trading structure.
Look for high-quality companies with non core assets around the industry where the core assets are located. There are three recommended directions for low-risk features: 1) to g-end or public investment: photovoltaic, wind power, power operation, power grid, digital infrastructure, construction, etc; 2) Along the direction of inflation: coal and chemical resources; 3) dilemma reversal and profitability certainty: pig, Baijiu and so on.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the undervalued main line may have relative benefits
Looking forward to the future, we believe that the supply risk caused by short-term geographical events and other factors may continue to ferment. In the medium term, the Chinese market may be relatively resilient: 1) China is in a relatively favorable growth and policy cycle, and the policy reserve space of “steady growth” is relatively sufficient, and the growth may gradually improve around the second quarter; 2) The valuation of China’s market is at a relatively low historical level, which is also attractive compared with other major markets; 3) At present, as an important manufacturing country in the world, China has the largest and relatively complete industrial chain in the world. The inflation pressure may be relatively controllable, and the Chinese market may be relatively more resilient in the global supply risk. Structurally, the short-term undervalued “steady growth” sector may have relative benefits. After the macro risks gradually subside, the high boom growth fields and the middle and lower reaches manufacturing industry squeezed by costs may usher in a turnaround.
At present, we pay attention to three directions: 1) potential support areas for policy development, including infrastructure, real estate, stable demand related industrial chains (building materials, construction, household appliances, home furnishings, etc.), brokerage finance, etc; 2) For the middle and lower reaches consumption with more adjustments, low valuation and clear medium and long-term prospects in 2021, choose stocks from bottom to top, including household appliances, light industry and household appliances, automobiles and parts, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine, etc; 3) The manufacturing growth sector, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, has released some risks, and the turnaround is waiting for the marginal mitigation of overseas “inflation” risk.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : A-share bottom seeking, bottom building or has been opened
In February, the social finance was lower than expected, the epidemic broke out sporadically, the external risk disturbance has not been eliminated, and the outflow of foreign capital has added new pressure. At present, there is a strong pessimism in the market. However, we believe that the current market has begun to show some positive signals, and the market may have begun to enter the classic process of bottom seeking and bottom building. From mid April to mid May, waiting for many uncertain factors to land, A-Shares are expected to return to the upward cycle.
Anxin Securities: weak market rebound will occur, but the big reversal will take some time
The most severe stage of negative capital feedback on the market has passed. For the market index, the CSI 300 index fell 12.83% from the beginning of the year and 19.06% from the high point in May last year. An important question is whether it is a “decline relay” or is already at the “strategic bottom”.
Objectively speaking, under the current background of external factors (Russia Ukraine issue, fed interest rate hike and global inflation), real estate dilemma and China’s epidemic situation have not been significantly alleviated, the weak market will rebound, but the market reversal will take some time. We maintain the recognition that the current market is at the bottom of the strategy and have a bright heart. In March, the sign of “seeing the dragon in the field” of A-Shares appeared, and the structural market is still firm and predictable.
In March, the market will pay more attention to the performance of the first quarter report. Q1 profit exceeding expectations is still the direction highly recognized by the current market. According to the same expectation of profit growth in 2022 from March (data on March 12), the performance of 2022q1 may continue to exceed the expectation. The subdivision directions are: cyclical products (potash fertilizer, shipping, coking coal, lead and zinc, fluorine chemical industry), new energy (lithium, cobalt, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , nuclear power), medical services (CXO, covid-19 detection) Manufacturing industry (motor, electronic parts, machine tool equipment), etc.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the most panic time has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window in the coming month
The most panic time has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window in the next month. 1) Although the Russian Ukrainian negotiations have not made substantive progress, the attitude and sanctions measures of all parties have been basically clear since the interpretation of the Russian Ukrainian conflict, and the possibility of further exceeding the expected impact is reduced. Moreover, from the performance of overseas markets last week, the panic about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been significantly released, and the overseas equity market has also changed from unilateral decline to two-way fluctuation. 2) In February, the total amount and structure of social finance in China were significantly lower than market expectations. However, the “steady growth” policy has been actively introduced recently. The two sessions defined the annual GDP growth target of 5.5%, and required to “expand the scale of new loans” and “reduce the comprehensive financing cost”. Provinces have also successively announced major project investment plans, with a significant increase over last year. At the same time, many places have introduced loose policies for house purchase. “Wide currency” and “wide credit” have been increasing, and further RRR and interest rate cuts can be expected in the future. 3) The Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates and even shrink the table is imminent. On March 16, the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting in March. The interest rate increase of 25bp is basically “a certainty”, and there is a high probability of announcing the schedule reduction plan. At the same time, the market’s long-standing concerns about interest rate increase will also fall to the ground. If the market is impacted again, it may be another opportunity to participate in the deep rebound. The next month, after the continuous adjustment since the beginning of the year and the most panic point gradually passed, the market is expected to usher in a wave of repair window.
in the second quarter, the size and style will turn to balance. It is suggested to “steady growth” + “small high tech” and “dumbbell” configurations: on the one hand, financial, real estate, new and old funds and other sectors that benefit from the expectation of “steady growth”; On the other hand, we will continue to find targets that meet the characteristics of “small high-tech” from bottom to top in the more adjusted medicine, computer and “new semi army”. In the long term, we will continue to focus on the five major directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.)
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) : the bottom of the market is beginning to appear, and there is still a meal market in the A-share market in the first half of the year
The western strategy points out that the phased bottom of the market is emerging, and the growth leads the rebound of the index. Last week, the market was affected by repeated concerns about the epidemic, with a significant outflow of foreign capital, triggering an irrational adjustment in the market. With the arrival of the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the style correction market has been quietly carried out in the adjustment. Boom is still the main line of market rebound.
Looking forward to the future, with the implementation of the Fed’s interest rate increase, there is still room for further easing of China’s monetary policy, and the market liquidity expectation is expected to usher in a phased correction. With the annual report and the first quarterly report window approaching, the A-share market still has a meal market in the first half of the year. In such an environment, the boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market, which is called style correction market.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : slow work makes fine work to keep waiting for attack
Slow work makes fine work, so as to defend and wait for attack. Since March, the valuation of A-Shares has been adjusted rapidly under the influence of the volatile situation in Russia and Ukraine, the surge in international oil prices, the shift of monetary policies in the United States and Europe and other factors. In the medium and long term, we are not pessimistic about the A-share market. However, due to the short-term difficulty in dispelling overseas stagflation concerns and the repeated impact of the Chinese epidemic on the pace of consumption recovery, the repair of market risk appetite will not be achieved overnight. It is expected that the A-share market will still “grind the bottom repeatedly” in the short term, and it is suggested to “defend and wait for attack”.
Specific to the industry, pay attention to three main investment lines: first, underestimate the value and benefit from overseas inflation varieties, such as “banking, real estate, precious metals (gold)”; Second, the benefits of epidemic prevention and control are related, such as “medical biology”; Third, the theme of benefiting from the promotion of policies (support), “new energy (photovoltaic, energy storage), semiconductors, Eastern digital computing and Western computing, agriculture, rural areas and farmers”, etc.
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