Looking back on the A-share market last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets experienced a panic decline again, with a sense of caution. However, after rapid adjustment, the big finance suddenly started last Friday, which prompted the stock index to stabilize and rise, and further turned red upward, showing a V-shaped pattern of bottom recovery throughout the day.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, there was a sharp fluctuation on the disk last week, and the K-line of the Shanghai Composite Index closed a long shadow line. Especially after the double needle bottom of the daily line, there is a high probability of short-term shock repair and rebound at present, the market is greatly affected by external factors, and the extreme instability of market sentiment leads to the increase of index amplitude. This disk feature is more suitable for repeated low buying and high selling under the bottom position . The bottom area suggests investors to bargain hunting and pay attention to the midline opportunities of digital economy, big finance and other sectors.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities said that on Friday, the Shanghai stock index first suppressed and then rose, successfully stood at 3300 points, the disk changed from general decline to general rise, the panic was significantly relieved, and the profit-making effect was expanded with the release of selling pressure and panic, and the role of the support at the bottom of the stage, the market may usher in a technical rebound opportunity. In the medium term, wait for the market to stabilize gradually and pay attention to the change of volume and energy . In terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on the layout of the middle line, and pay attention to the industries such as finance, building materials, steel, electrical equipment, TMT, etc.
As far as the future is concerned, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) mentioned that at present, the A-share market has undergone relatively sufficient adjustment, and the allocation value of some sectors has begun to highlight. Under repeated stimulation, the marginal impact of external events such as the external situation and the Fed's interest rate hike may be relatively limited, and China is expected to further reduce the policy interest rate and strengthen the guidance of industrial policy in the near future, Implement "steady growth" China's policy environment of maintaining a broad currency and strengthening credit may become a "booster" for the emotional repair of the A-share market. However, under the background of multiple uncertainty risks, we predict that the market may still be dominated by a volatile structural market in the short term, and the main line of the current market is still unclear , We propose to focus on the following two points in the allocation: first, continue to focus on the "steady growth" industrial chain. Second, timely intervene in the high boom track with industrial logic support in combination with valuation changes.
on the issue of whether the market has been fully adjusted , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) pointed out that ① the CSI 300 has experienced five rounds of decline. Referring to history, the time and space of this adjustment has been significant, and the market valuation is at a medium low level since 2013. ② There is little negative feedback pressure on Funds: the proportion of leveraged funds is not high, the net redemption of funds is not obvious, and the funds going north will flow out in the short term, but will still flow in the medium and long term. ③ The market fluctuated throughout the year. The callback in the past two months has left room for the subsequent market to focus on value and growth attacks, such as photovoltaic wind power and data center cloud computing.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the market is still affected by overseas geopolitical risks this week. If the overseas risks ease, the positive factors of the A-share market may push the market upward. If overseas risks are gradually mitigated, the previously suppressed risk appetite may be gradually repaired the macro and micro positive factors accumulated in the early stage of the A-share market will gradually become the focus of the market, and the A-share may also have a better performance .
main line 1: steady growth . It is expected that the fiscal policy will continue to work in 2022, and the "steady growth" sector in history has performed well during the period of fiscal policy. It is suggested to pay attention to the traditional infrastructure that is expected to directly benefit from the "steady growth" policy, including building materials, banking, real estate and other industries; Secondly, focus on new infrastructure such as photovoltaic and wind power.
main line 2: consumption . It is suggested that we should pay attention to three directions: first, the high certainty of Baijiu and medicine and the basic industries of consumption allocation. Second, home appliances, new energy vehicles and other industries benefiting from consumption subsidies and stimulus policies; Third, offline consumer industries that are expected to benefit from the gradual control of the epidemic, including tourism and aviation.
From the macro perspective, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the supply risk caused by short-term geopolitical events and other factors may continue to ferment, and the probability of overseas "stagflation" increases. It is still necessary to closely track the progress of geopolitical situation and the risks of supply shortage and liquidity , The impact of these factors on market sentiment may still need to be further digested, and the market turnaround may occur after the marginal easing of macro risks such as inflation and geopolitics.
According to the further analysis of the agency, in the medium term, the Chinese market may be relatively resilient : 1) China is in a relatively favorable growth and policy cycle, and the policy reserve space of "steady growth" is relatively sufficient, and the growth may gradually improve around the second quarter; 2) The valuation of China's market is at a relatively low historical level, which is also attractive compared with other major markets; 3) At present, as an important manufacturing country in the world, China has the largest and relatively complete industrial chain in the world. The inflation pressure may be relatively controllable, and the Chinese market may be relatively more resilient in the global supply risk. Structurally, the short-term undervalued "steady growth" sector may have relative benefits. After the macro risks gradually subside, the high boom growth fields and the middle and lower reaches manufacturing industry squeezed by costs may usher in a turnaround.
In terms of operational strategy, Guosheng Securities said that should not be too pessimistic in the near future . The influence of disturbing factors will gradually weaken, which requires confidence and patience to wait for the market sentiment to repair. The prosperity of photovoltaic, wind power and other clean energy sectors remains, and the medium and long-term opportunities of superimposed industrial policy support remain; The new infrastructure, the "counting East and counting West" and other sectors have also been adjusted recently, but the policy support is strong. In particular, the policy setting of "counting East and counting West" is consistent with the "west to East power transmission" and "south to North Water Transfer" in that year, which are sustainable concerns of national projects that benefit the country and the people. With the spotted outbreak of the epidemic, we can pay attention to the relevant epidemic prevention sectors. At the same time, March to April is the intensive disclosure period of the annual reports of listed companies. With the recent sharp decline in the market, it is a window period for mining the wrongly killed blue chip stocks.
Xingzheng strategy believes that the time of most panic has passed, and the market will usher in a phased repair window . From the performance of overseas markets, the panic about the external situation has been significantly released, and the overseas equity market has also changed from unilateral decline to two-way fluctuation. In the second quarter, the size and style will turn to balance. It is suggested that "steady growth" + "small high-tech" and "dumbbell" configuration: on the one hand, it benefits from the financial, real estate, new and old infrastructure and other sectors expected by "steady growth"; On the other hand, we will continue to find targets that meet the characteristics of "small high-tech" from bottom to top in the more adjusted medicine, computer and "new semi army".
for a long time, continue to focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation . 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
In terms of industry configuration, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) mentioned that starts from three main lines and two themes . Main line 1: the strong will always be strong and continue to participate in the market in the third stage of growth. Specifically, we can pay attention to the main growth lines such as dual carbon new energy vehicles, solar energy storage and semiconductors, as well as the computer, communication and national defense industry under the growth diffusion;
Main line 2: add a stable growth chain with cost performance in the short term, and focus on new and old infrastructure fields such as building materials, building decoration, urban pipe network transformation and new power grid construction, as well as relevant opportunities such as real estate and banks emerging from the recent downturn;
Main line 3: in terms of consumption, we will continue to look at the overall opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector under the catalysis of many benefits in the short term, and gradually arrange the opportunities related to dairy products, planting industry and chemical fertilizer with smoother price rise in the medium and long term; In terms of themes, we will continue to pay attention to investment opportunities related to the digital economy and the reform of state-owned enterprises.
