Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) : covid-19 antigen detection market space exposure! Promising upstream, middle and downstream industrial chain
Covid-19 antigen detection has high social value in large-scale and rapid screening and detection. We expect that from the perspective of rationality, combined with three types of application scenarios, the market scale of diagnosis and treatment and detection demand of grass-roots medical and health institutions is about 5.5 billion yuan, the detection demand of isolated observers is about 2.5 billion yuan, and the self inspection demand of community residents is about 24.9 billion yuan, with an overall total of more than 30 billion yuan.
From a long-term perspective, assuming that the society under the normalization of covid-19 is open, it can be divided into static self-test and dynamic large-scale test according to the application scenarios of covid-19 antigen detection. In a comprehensive view, the market scale of antigen detection in a long-term perspective is 270 billion yuan.
The upstream, middle and downstream industrial chain has great prospects. The industrial chain can be divided into upstream raw materials, midstream product manufacturing and production and downstream terminal sales. The gross profit distribution of the industry is calculated according to the relevant gross profit margin level of the industry. After the calculation, the gross profit of the upstream, middle and downstream accounts for 14%, 24% and 60% respectively based on the terminal sales price.
Main raw materials and auxiliary materials for upstream production: main raw materials and auxiliary materials. Referring to the cost splitting of representative antigen listed companies, the sales cost rate of antigen detection is about 40%. In terms of specific splitting, antigen antibody accounts for 27%, NC film and PVC rubber sector account for 5%, auxiliary materials account for 34% and packaging materials account for 12%.
Manufacturing of midstream products: China's covid-19 antigen detection and self inspection products are ready to be issued. As of March 12, 2022, five covid-19 antigen detection products have been approved in China. It is expected that more manufacturers will get product registration certificates in the future. Considering the potential demand for antigen detection in China, it is expected that companies that have obtained CE certification and US EUA certification in China will also accelerate their registration applications in China.
Downstream terminal sales: the downstream terminals represented by different scenarios and different groups of people in antigen detection are different. According to the current situation of nucleic acid detection, it is inferred that the detection purchaser of grass-roots medical institutions and self-test isolation observers should be government medical insurance through bidding, while it is clear that self-test of community residents at their own expense is personal consumption. In terms of retail, it is stipulated that it can be purchased through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels.
From the perspective of investment suggestions and related targets, we pay attention to the investment opportunities of the whole industrial chain, and the relevant beneficiary listed companies are as follows:
In terms of upstream raw materials, antigen antibody reagents: Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Sino Biological Inc(301047) , Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) , youningwei, Feipeng Biology (to be listed), etc; Auxiliary materials: Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Getein Biotech Inc(603387) , Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , Guangzhou Improve Medical Instruments Co.Ltd(300030) , etc; Packaging materials: Shanghai Haishun New Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.Ltd(300501) , Xi'An Global Printing Co.Ltd(002799) , Shenzhen Colibri Technologies Co.Ltd(002957) , etc;
In terms of midstream production and manufacturing, China has been approved: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) ; Overseas approved: Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , an Xu biology, etc;
In terms of downstream terminal sales, retail pharmacies: Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd(000028) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) , etc; Pharmaceutical e-commerce: JD health, Alibaba health, Ping an good doctor, Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , etc.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : covid-19 virus antigen detection is approved, and relevant industrial chain enterprises may significantly benefit
Covid-19 virus antigen detection was approved and became a powerful supplement to nucleic acid detection. Antigen detection has the characteristics of convenience, timeliness, low cost and low accuracy. It is easier to popularize and realize home self-test. However, the probability of missed detection and false detection is higher, which can not replace the gold standard of "nucleic acid detection" and can not be used as the basis for diagnosis. Therefore, carrying out antigen detection is conducive to early detection. Adding a fast screening method before nucleic acid detection has become a powerful supplement to epidemic prevention, control and screening. At the same time, for medical and health institutions that do not have the ability of large-scale nucleic acid detection, antigen detection, as a means of early screening, can greatly improve the detection efficiency.
Five products have been approved, and relevant industrial chain enterprises may benefit significantly. On March 12, the State Food and Drug Administration issued a notice approving the change of covid-19 antigen product self-test application of Nanjing Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Beijing jinwofu, Shenzhen Huada Yinyuan, Guangzhou Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Beijing huaketai biology. Since then, five covid-19 antigen self-test products have been officially listed in China. The barrier of antigen detection itself is not high. In addition to the above five enterprises, many enterprises in China can mass produce antigen detection kits, but previously related products were mainly used for export.
According to data from the General Administration of customs, according to data from the General Administration of customs, according to data from the General Administration of customs, in 2021, China has exported a total of 668993 billion yuan of covid-19 detection kits in 2021, and a single month in December 2021 will export more than 10 billion yuan in a single month in December 2021, with more than 10 billion yuan in a single month in December 2021, of which Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) 00463 \ \, and a single month in a single month in December 2021, with more than 10 billion billion billion yuan in a single month in 2021, with a single month of December 2021, 2021, with more than 10 billion billion billion billion billion yuan in a single month of 2021, of which of 2021 December, of which of which includes $100 billion and other companies have obtained the listing qualification of overseas covid-19 antigen reagent. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the current short-term competitive barriers are mainly registration approval and supply capacity. In addition to five listed products, other enterprises that have listed covid-19 antigen detection products overseas are expected to be the first to be approved. At present, China's relevant quality evaluation standards and registration evaluation methods have not been released, which is expected to be faster than the review time and speed of 1-3 years for the approval of conventional in vitro diagnostic kits.
In terms of investment suggestions, it is expected that the liberalization of covid-19 antigen detection will bring a large marginal increment to the performance of enterprises in relevant industrial chains. It is suggested to pay attention to in vitro diagnostic enterprises whose relevant products have been listed in China or abroad. It is suggested to pay attention to: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , etc.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : normalization of epidemic prevention! Grasp the investment opportunities of antigen self-test and covid-19 oral drug industry chain
Normalize epidemic prevention and grasp the investment opportunities of antigen self-test and covid-19 oral drug industry chain. On March 11, the covid-19 epidemic prevention and control group of the State Council issued the notice on printing and distributing the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), adding antigen detection as a supplement to covid-19 detection. On March 12, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the application for self-test application of five covid-19 antigen products for listing. We believe that we should pay attention to China's antigen self-test market after the implementation of the policy. Antigen detection has the advantages of high efficiency, quickness and low cost. China's ten billion level antigen detection market is about to be opened. Combined with the recent epidemic situation outside China and the development trend of in vitro diagnosis industry in the future, we believe that we can focus on three opportunities: 1) enterprises such as antigen antibody, NC membrane and packaging materials and accessories upstream of the industrial chain; 2) Testing enterprises with excellent product quality, sufficient production capacity and advanced approval progress; 3) C-end cooperative pharmacy. In addition, under the normalization of the epidemic situation, we should still pay attention to the investment opportunities related to covid-19 small molecule oral drug industry chain. It is suggested that attention should be paid to the Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) \ , Shanghai Haishun New Pharmaceutical Packaging Co.Ltd(300501) etc.
Minsheng Securities: covid-19 antigen detection wind has come, giving rise to 10 billion detection demand per month
Recently, the state approved and liberalized the use of covid-19 antigen detection kit, which we believe is to lay the foundation for the steady relaxation of epidemic prevention measures in the future, so as to make high-risk floating population and asymptomatic infection more controllable, and antigen detection is expected to be spread nationwide.
Five covid-19 antigen testing products have been approved in China, and home testing has spawned a 10 billion testing market. As of March 12, 2022, five covid-19 antigen detection kits have been approved in China. From the perspective of methodology, it is divided into latex method, fluorescence immunochromatography and colloidal gold method. Immunochromatography needs necessary equipment to be used, while latex method and colloidal gold method can be applied to family self-test. In the long run, with the normalization of covid-19 epidemic, covid-19 home self inspection is expected to be popularized nationwide. Assuming that the ex factory price of the product is 6-10 yuan / person, and the median value is 30% based on the penetration range of 10% - 50%, the corresponding market space for covid-19 antigen detection in China is 20.16-33.6 billion yuan per month.
The upstream of covid-19 testing industry chain is expected to benefit fully. The raw materials of the kit can be mainly divided into biological raw materials, NC film and other auxiliary packaging materials. Based on our dominant position in their respective market segments, we suggest to focus on Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) in the field of biological enzymes, Acrobiosystems Co.Ltd(301080) and Sino Biological Inc(301047) in the field of antigen and antibody, North Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(002246) in the field of NC membrane, and Shenzhen Changhong Technology Co.Ltd(300151) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) and Guangzhou Jet Bio-Filtration Co.Ltd(688026) .
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : the number of approved covid-19 therapeutic drugs in China will increase in the future, and the sales related to anti epidemic in pharmacies are expected to gradually increase
China is an important global exporter of covid-19 antigen testing products. China is an important producer of covid-19 antigen testing, and many enterprises have obtained CE, FDA, TGA and other relevant certifications. According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, the total export volume of covid-19 antigen detection products in China in 2021 exceeded 70 billion yuan.
As an important terminal channel, pharmacies may usher in a wide range of incremental opportunities. According to the notice issued by the Health Commission, community residents who need self-test can purchase antigen test reagents for self-test through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels. With covid-19 antigen detection clearly as a supplementary detection means, the anti epidemic terminal value of chain pharmacies is expected to be gradually reflected, and the stores may usher in a new increase in revenue. Antigen detection is convenient and low-cost, which is expected to become a daily demand product; On the other hand, the sales of antigen detection products are expected to boost passenger flow and drive the sales of related products. As the situation of epidemic prevention and control tends to stabilize, the sales of respiratory drugs and anti infective drugs in pharmacies may gradually resume. In addition, if the number of covid-19 therapeutic drugs approved in China increases in the future, the sales of anti epidemic drugs in pharmacies are expected to gradually increase.
From the perspective of investment suggestions, we believe that the rapid promotion of covid-19 antigen detection application in China is expected to improve the overall prosperity of the industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of the leading enterprises of antigen detection and the first certified enterprises; At the same time, the demand elasticity of upstream supply chain and downstream sales channels (such as pharmacies) is also worth grasping. Key companies: Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , etc.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) : the potential market for antigen detection in China is vast, and the list of industrial chain companies is exposed
On March 11, the comprehensive group of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council issued the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), which made detailed provisions on the applicable population and detection process of covid-19 antigen detection. We believe that the issuance of the scheme has laid the tone for the liberalization of the application of follow-up antigen self-test in China, and relevant manufacturers with products, certificates and production capacity are expected to benefit significantly. Considering China's large population base, relatively low price of antigen self-test (vs nucleic acid detection can better reduce the economic burden), relatively convenient purchase channels (pharmacies, Internet and other channels), we believe that there is a broad potential market space for antigen detection in China. Industrial chain companies include Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Maccura Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300463) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Asahi biology, Sansure Biotech Inc(688289) , Jiangsu Bioperfectus Technologies Co.Ltd(688399) , Wuhan Easy Diagnosis Biomedicine Co.Ltd(002932) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) etc.
Huachuang Securities: covid-19 self inspection, optimistic about the benefit elasticity of Pharmacy
We believe that community residents may have a high frequency of self-detection, and the application scenario of antigen detection is expected to be continuously expanded, with great market potential. As the main place for community residents to buy medicine, retail pharmacy has gradually become an important part of the national epidemic prevention system with strong convenience. Head chain pharmacy has the advantages of good brand and reputation, huge customer group and close cooperative relationship with upstream manufacturers. It is expected to not only undertake more important epidemic prevention functions, but also achieve good development.
In the short term, antigen detection reagents are expected to be quickly listed and sold in pharmacies. When the initial supply is in short supply, it will test the cooperative relationship between pharmacies and upstream manufacturers; Pricing depends more on regulatory requirements and corporate strategy; The quarterly performance of pharmacy is highly flexible.
In the medium term, the sale of antigen detection reagents will have a positive impact on the profitability and drainage of pharmacies. On the profit side, under the condition of sufficient supply in the medium term, the gross profit margin of antigen detection reagents sold by pharmacies may return to the level of normal epidemic prevention materials, and is still expected to contribute to a larger increment of marginal gross profit, so as to realize a higher net profit margin of single products under the condition of less allocation of store rent, clerk cost, management expenses, etc. In addition, the sale of antigen detection reagents is also conducive to pharmacy drainage and increase related sales opportunities. Pharmacy performance is expected to continue to thicken.
In view of the potential incremental contribution of selling antigen detection reagents, the performance of pharmacies is expected to achieve high elasticity under a low base, and the valuation of superimposed pharmacies is at the bottom of history. We recommend Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) , Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) , Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) ; It is suggested to pay attention to China National Accord Medicines Corporation Ltd(000028) , Shuyu Civilian Pharmacy Corp.Ltd(301017) .
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) : antigen detection is expected to be an effective supplement to nucleic acid detection. Pay attention to relevant antigen antibody companies and consumables companies
Antigen detection is expected to be an effective supplement to nucleic acid detection. The rapid spread of the epidemic has put great pressure on domestic epidemic prevention and control and nucleic acid screening. Antigen detection is applicable to detect patients within 7 days of illness. Its accuracy is not as accurate as nucleic acid detection and there is false negative, but it takes a short time, has low requirements for environment and personnel, and is relatively cheap. It will become an effective supplement to nucleic acid detection.
China's market is promising and its exports continue to grow. At present, there are still some uncertainties in the price and penetration rate of antigen detection products. With reference to Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) covid-19 detection reagent, the bid winning price of products purchased by the group in the alliance area is 16.8 yuan. Based on the calculation of fever patients, isolated people and self inspection people in grass-roots medical institutions, antigen detection will bring a large increase to the market.
Judging from the overseas approval, the domestic covid-19 antigen detection kit has been successively certified overseas. If the approval of Chinese antigen detection products is accelerated, some companies with leading overseas sales, high popularity and strong supply capacity are expected to benefit. According to the data of the General Administration of customs, China's covid-19 antigen kit exported 71.4 billion yuan in 2021. It is expected that with the recurrence of the epidemic, the short-term overseas demand is still strong.
In terms of investment suggestions, companies with approved antigen detection products have obvious first mover advantages. In addition, if the approval of Chinese antigen detection products is accelerated, some companies with leading overseas sales, high popularity and strong supply capacity are expected to benefit. For the upstream raw material end, the improvement of downstream prosperity will lead to the continuous growth of demand. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant antigen antibody companies and consumables companies. For the self inspection crowd, it is recommended to pay attention to retail pharmacies and enterprises with strong OTC ability. It is suggested to focus on Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , the beneficiary companies Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) , Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , the overseas antigen self-test products approved and leading in sales Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Getein Biotech Inc(603387) , etc.
