Today (March 14), the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets did not continue the trend of rising against the trend on Friday, but both opened low for consolidation. At the time of early trading shock, they once had a pull-up performance, but also quickly suffered pressure and fell. In the afternoon, the stock index plunged again, accelerated its decline in the late trading, and the weak pattern was listed.
As of the day's close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the Shanghai index fell 2.61% to 322353 points; The Shenzhen composite index fell 3.08% to 1206363 points; The gem index fell 3.56% to 257045 points.
From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors fell more or rose less, and the local profit-making effect was poor. In terms of industry, aerospace is outstanding, with a slight decline in pharmaceutical commerce and chemical pharmacy; Wine making, tourism and hotels, wind power, coal, electric power, nonferrous metals, energy metals, gas, semiconductors, oil and other sectors led the decline. In terms of subject stocks, covid-19 drugs and covid-19 detection rose against the trend; Oil prices, beer concepts, online travel, oil and gas services, green electricity, Baijiu, pork concept, East number West calculation and other concepts led to a fall.
In terms of funds, the central bank announced on March 14 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people's Bank of China launched a 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on March 14, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%. Today, the 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase is due. Therefore, today's open market realizes zero delivery and zero return.
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North Fund
southbound funds
message surface
1. According to Zhongxin Jingwei report, according to the website of the State Food and drug administration, on the 13th, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the registration application of five covid-19 antigen detection kit products. These five enterprises include Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Tianjin BIOSIS Biotechnology Co., Ltd., Chongqing Mingdao jietest Biotechnology Co., Ltd. and Beijing Lepu Diagnostic Technology Co., Ltd. Since then, 10 covid-19 antigen detection kits have been on the market.
2. According to chinanews.com, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a risk warning on the 14th to remind consumers to stay away from the marketing trap of excessive lending and prevent excessive credit risk. The CBRC said that personal consumer credit services such as credit cards and Microfinance are deeply bound with various consumption scenarios, which facilitates life and reduces the pressure of immediate payment to a certain extent. However, if consumers use consumer credit frequently and superimposed, it is easy to cause risks such as excessive debt and damage to credit investigation. The CBRC disclosed several types of related phenomena.
3. According to the Ministry of Commerce on March 14, from January to February 2022, the actual amount of foreign capital used in China was 243.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.9% (equivalent to US $37.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.2%; excluding banking, securities and insurance). In terms of industry, the actual amount of foreign capital used in the service industry was 175.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%. The actual use of foreign capital in high-tech industries increased by 73.8% year-on-year, including 69.2% in high-tech manufacturing and 74.9% in high-tech services. From the source, one belt, one road, and ASEAN real investment increased by 27.8% and 25.5% respectively (including data from free port). From the perspective of regional distribution, the actual use of foreign capital in eastern, central and Western China increased by 36.6%, 74.9% and 13% respectively year-on-year.
4. According to the website of securities times, Guangdong Province issued the notice on the key points of the reform and construction of Guangdong Digital Government in 2022: it plans to comprehensively promote the reform of market-oriented allocation of data elements, further improve the public data management and operation system, improve the data trading and circulation platform and mechanism, strengthen the research on relevant standards and technologies of data elements, and explore the construction of personal and legal person digital space, Strive to make new breakthroughs within the year and promote the innovative development of digital economy. Among them, it is proposed to promote the circulation of data transactions. Rely on the existing trading places to build provincial data trading places and build data trading platforms. Promote the pilot of "data broker" and "data Customs". Support Shenzhen to set up a data trading market or carry out data trading relying on existing trading venues. Build the big data center of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Dawan district and improve the data infrastructure system of Dawan district.
institutional views
Regarding the current market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that on Monday, the A-share market opened low and went down with shock, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong fell sharply in the early trading, which dragged down the stock indexes of the two cities to jump off and open low in the early trading, all industries fell across the board, core assets, track stocks and growth stocks fell in turn, investors' risk aversion increased significantly, and the overall selling pressure of the market was heavy, The Shanghai stock index showed the operation characteristics of unilateral shock and downward throughout the day.
The agency further analyzed that the trading volume of the two cities is less than trillion, the stock game characteristics are significant, and investors have a heavy wait-and-see mood with money. At present, the market is obviously affected by external factors and the overall performance is depressed. It is expected that before the external factors are fully digested, the stock indexes of the two cities will continue to explore and seek effective support. It is expected that the short-term shock of the Shanghai stock index is more likely to decline, and the short-term slight decline of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
What are the markets worried about Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that ① the sharp decline in valuation is not the core contradiction of the current market. Even if it falls to the bottom of the bear market, ERP estimates that the downward space of the Shanghai composite index is about 10%.
② at present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is at the bottom of the bear market, and the median is high, mainly because the market heavyweights are still expensive. Assuming that the liquidity has been fully collected since the outbreak, most core assets have returned to normal central valuation, and only some Baijiu and new energy sources are expensive.
③ hidden worries about stagflation: the external situation leads to global inflation, which hurts the profits of enterprises. Be wary of the possibility of killing valuation to killing performance. At present, the core lies in whether the annual GDP growth target of 5.5% can be achieved, and focus on the proportion of companies that reduce the performance forecast in 2022.
④ in the short term, more optimistic factors are overseas: the easing of conflict, the decline of inflation and the landing of interest rate increase. China's optimistic factors rely more on policies to make further efforts: interest rate and reserve requirement reduction, real estate relaxation or high-level entrepreneurs' Symposium.
⑤ in the short-term stagflation environment, the high dividend portfolio is dominant, focusing on banks, real estate, coal and chemical industry. In the medium and long term, the medium-term recession is loose, and the growth is still the main line of the whole year. Under the digital economy, telecom operators, IDC manufacturing, cloud computing and photovoltaic green power under the dual carbon transformation.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) mentioned that according to statistics, there have been 14 similar sharp falls since 2011, and the market will have a rebound period after the oversold. From the perspective of the industry, the industry with the heavier decline will perform better in the next month. However, it is worth noting that the overall duration of the rebound after the oversold is about one month, and the rising probability in one week and January is 86% and 79% respectively. At present, we can moderately participate in the structural opportunity of oversold rebound in the game. Looking back, it is the performance forecast window period in the first quarter. The high boom segments released by the performance forecast or the new consensus main line.
Bohai Securities believes that in the short term, there is still the possibility of repetition of external risk factors and domestic risk aversion, or promote the repeated process of the bottom of the market. However, in the medium and long term, the expectation that the steady growth policy will promote the recovery of enterprise prosperity is relatively clear, and it is expected to bring the low point of enterprise profitability upward. The market panic and the venting process of risk aversion factors will probably bring low allocation opportunities within the year. In terms of industry allocation, based on the 5.5% GDP target and sufficient financial "food and grass", we can pay attention to the investment opportunities in the new infrastructure sector, one of the important starting points of "stable growth", and focus on the digital economy; In addition, we can also pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the pharmaceutical sector under the adjustment of epidemic prevention mode.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) said that with the implementation of the Fed's interest rate hike, there is still room for further easing of China's monetary policy, and the market liquidity expectation is expected to usher in periodic correction. With the annual report and the first quarterly report window approaching, the A-share market still has a meal market in the first half of the year. In such an environment, the boom track leader with large adjustment range in the early stage and high performance fulfillment will usher in a round of restorative market, which we call style correction market.
From the perspective of structure, the current focus on the performance, and the prosperity track leaders such as new energy, semiconductor, medicine and military industry that can be determined to be fulfilled are expected to usher in phased repair. On the other hand, the essential consumption sectors such as agriculture, food, textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in a performance inflection point. At present, China's epidemic concerns have reached a high level, and offline economic recovery related industries such as social service, retail, catering, shipping and traditional media are also ushering in the layout window period. The theme focuses on the digital economy, the concept of three children, food security, the reform of the comprehensive registration system, etc.
