Covid-19 antigen detection scheme was born, and the interpretation of research reports by analysts of many securities companies followed up quickly.
On March 11, the comprehensive group of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council issued the notice on the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial) (hereinafter referred to as the "scheme"), and decided to add antigen detection as a supplement on the basis of nucleic acid detection. Subsequently, applications for registration of 10 covid-19 antigen detection kits including Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , kingwhorf and Huada Yinyuan were successively approved.
Boosted by the good news, the covid-19 detection sector raised the limit wildly on the 11th day. Under the weak market of low opening and low going on the 14th, the covid-19 detection sector rose against the market, and relevant concept stocks were also collectively active. Many stocks such as Saili medical, North Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(002246) , Changzhou Qianhong Biopharma Co.Ltd(002550) and Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Shanghai Labway Clinical Laboratory Co.Ltd(301060) also rose by more than 10%.
Concept stocks danced in the wind, and the demand for antigen detection industrial chain broke out in an all-round way. As soon as the plan was published, nearly 30 securities companies released dozens of research reports for follow-up interpretation, and topics such as market scale prediction triggered a "hundred schools of thought contend". How much market space will covid-19 antigen detection liberalization bring in the future The answer to Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is about 85 billion yuan, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) is considered to be over 30 billion yuan, The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities is predicted to be 11.2-33.6 billion yuan / month, Minsheng securities is 20.16-33.6 billion yuan / month, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) is 17.7-26.6 billion yuan / month, and Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) is 53.2 billion yuan / month.
From the perspective of securities analysts, the market scale of antigen detection in China is at least 10 billion. How to invest in relevant industrial chains? In addition to paying attention to the listed companies whose antigen detection products have been approved at present, the demand elasticity of upstream supply chain and downstream sales channels has also been mentioned many times in the research report. The long-term logic behind it, such as certificate obtaining ability, production capacity and channel sales, deserves attention.
antigen detection market space causes "hundred schools of thought contend"
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pharmaceutical team is relatively optimistic about the market space of the original test, pointing out that relevant policies will give birth to a 100 billion industrial chain. Considering only the demand for antigen detection used by Chinese terminals, it is estimated that the upstream raw materials are about 10 billion, the midstream antigen detection reagents are about 35 billion, and the downstream off-site channels are about 40 billion, totaling about 85 billion; Considering the global market demand, the market scale will be more considerable.
Among the optimists are Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) . The medical team estimated that from a rational perspective, combined with three types of application scenarios, the market scale of diagnosis and treatment and detection needs of grass-roots medical and health institutions is about 5.5 billion yuan, the detection needs of isolated observers is about 2.5 billion yuan, and the self inspection needs of community residents are about 24.9 billion yuan, with an overall total of more than 30 billion yuan. From a long-term perspective, assuming that the society under the normalization of covid-19 is open, it can be divided into static self-test and dynamic large-scale test according to the application scenarios of covid-19 antigen detection. Comprehensively, the antigen detection market has a scale of 270 billion yuan.
Debang securities also believes that China's antigen self-test products may start the rapid registration and approval process, accelerate the listing of multiple products, and open the 100 billion market space for China's antigen testing.
According to the calculation of Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pharmaceutical team, the main market of self-test kit in the future is expected to come from the United States, the European Union, Japan and China. According to the total population and average detection times, the global market potential is expected to exceed $50 billion (about 316.8 billion yuan), of which the U.S. market accounts for the majority, and the Chinese market is expected to reach $8.4 billion (about 53.2 billion yuan).
According to the analysis of Minsheng securities pharmaceutical team, in the long run, with the normalization of covid-19 epidemic, covid-19 home self inspection is expected to be popularized nationwide. Assuming that the ex factory price of the product is 6-10 yuan / person, and the median value is 30% based on the penetration range of 10% - 50%, the corresponding market space for covid-19 antigen detection in China is 20.16-33.6 billion yuan per month.
According to the estimation of The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities pharmaceutical analysts, if the detection frequency per capita is 1-2 times per month in peak period, the ex factory unit price is 8-12 yuan and the total population of 1.4 billion is calculated, the market scale of antigen self-test in China in a single month will reach 11.2-33.6 billion yuan.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) 's forecast results are similar. Referring to the distribution policy of overseas covid-19 antigen self-test kit, Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pharmaceutical team predicts that the market scale of covid-19 antigen self-test kit in China is expected to reach 17.7-26.6 billion yuan per month.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) pharmaceutical team's research and judgment is more conservative - based on the complex epidemic situation in China at this stage, the rapid change of product competition pattern and the lack of early reference information, it believes that the future antigen detection market space can not be accurately predicted.
Multidimensional Interpretation of investment opportunities in the whole industry chain
Concept stocks danced in the wind, and the demand of the whole industry chain of antigen detection broke out in an all-round way. How to seize investment opportunities has also become a key topic covered by many securities companies. In addition to paying attention to the listed companies whose antigen detection products have been approved, the demand elasticity of upstream supply chain and downstream sales channels has also been mentioned many times.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) pharmaceutical team believes that companies whose antigen detection products have been approved have obvious first mover advantages. In addition, if the approval of Chinese antigen detection products is accelerated, some companies with leading overseas sales, high popularity and strong supply capacity are expected to benefit. For the upstream raw material end, the improvement of downstream prosperity will lead to the continuous growth of demand. It is suggested to pay attention to relevant antigen antibody companies and consumables companies; For the self inspection crowd, it is recommended to pay attention to retail pharmacies and enterprises with strong OTC ability.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) pharmaceutical team's research report points out that the rapid promotion of covid-19 antigen detection in China is expected to improve the overall prosperity of the industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of the leading enterprises of antigen detection and the first certified enterprises; At the same time, the demand elasticity of upstream supply chain and downstream sales channels (such as pharmacies) is also worth grasping.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pharmaceutical and biological team believes that they can focus on three opportunities: first, enterprises such as antigen antibody, NC membrane and packaging materials and accessories upstream of the industrial chain; Second, testing enterprises with excellent product quality, sufficient production capacity and advanced approval progress; Third, C-end cooperative pharmacies. In addition, under the normalization of the epidemic situation, we should still pay attention to the investment opportunities related to covid-19 small molecule oral drug industry chain.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pharmaceutical team suggests to go behind the K-line and think about the long-term logic of the enterprise: first, the excellent certification ability reflects the company's ability to seize opportunities and R & D reserves; Second, the company has a strong ability of operation mobilization, and the production capacity and sales can respond in a timely and flexible manner and follow up quickly; Third, opening channels with opportunities, such as overseas markets or Chinese suitable companies entering the Chinese POCT market, can help the company achieve short-term accumulation at the strategic level.
At present, the main line of antigen detection of Debon pharmaceutical companies is that Debon pharmaceutical investment team is optimistic about the three listed products; Second, it is expected that the approval of Chinese antigen products will be accelerated one after another. It is suggested to pay attention to antigen reagent testing manufacturers that are exported to Europe and the United States in overseas epidemic situations, with leading sales volume, high overseas brand awareness and sufficient production capacity; Third, the potential investment opportunities brought by OTC are the priority of OTC companies.
antigen detection stocks have soared 26 times
In terms of individual stocks, the investment opportunities of antigen detection head enterprises and the first certified enterprises have attracted much attention. At present, among the 10 approved covid-19 antigen detection kit products, 6 enterprises are listed in a shares, namely Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) and Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) ; Among them, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) have ranked among the "100 yuan shares", and the total market value of Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) has exceeded 100 billion yuan, reaching 151305 billion yuan.
From the stock price performance, although the market has been volatile and depressed all the way this year, the stock prices of the above-mentioned enterprises, except Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) fell by 4.51%, have increased by more than double digits, Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) and Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) have risen sharply against the trend, with increases of 72.61% and 57.39% respectively. On March 10 and 11, Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) closed two "20cm" limit in a row; On the 14th, the stock prices of Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) and Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) rose strongly.
Since the first day of listing, it has also made outstanding performance in terms of rise and fall: Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ride on the dust, and is happy to increase the share price by 26 times The share price of Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) also increased by 11 times compared with that at the beginning of listing, the share price of Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) increased by 4 times, and Beijing Hotgen Biotech Co.Ltd(688068) also increased by nearly 2 times.
The above-mentioned enterprises have also been favored by analysts of a number of securities companies. Minsheng Securities believes that Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) as the leading company of molecular scientific research reagents, the industrial chain is independent and controllable, and the end products are becoming more and more abundant. The company can independently develop and produce covid-19 detection kit and other related biological reagent raw materials, with cost and scale advantages. The approval of covid-19 antigen detection kit not only further enriches the company's covid-19 related terminal detection product series, but also improves the company's overall competitive level.
Minsheng Securities believes that Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) future performance growth is deterministic, adding the profit increment brought by covid-19 nucleic acid raw material and antibody antigen reagent, and the investment value is significant. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.86423362673 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 678807/961 million yuan, corresponding to PE multiple of 63 / 53 ×/ forty-four ×； Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) pharmaceutical team positioned Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) as the leader of life science services in China, and also raised the company's profit forecast. The team believes that the covid-19 antigen detection kit has been approved for listing, which further enriches the application scenarios of the company's overall covid-19 detection solution and helps to improve the company's competitiveness in the field of POCT detection reagents. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) 21-23 will be 678 / 928 / 1115 million yuan (the previous value was 678 / 731 / 940 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of - 18% / + 37% / + 20%. The current stock price corresponds to 63x / 46x / 38x PE in 21-23 years, and the target price will be adjusted to 134.31 yuan (the previous value was 117.88 yuan); Maintain the "buy" rating.
Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) is also favored due to strong brand power, abundant production capacity, strong channel capacity and other factors Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) analysis shows that Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) is the leader of POCT in China. It has rich experience in core raw material preparation, mass production and quality control. With its own brand advantages, the company's products may have higher market acceptance. In terms of production capacity, the company has excellent automatic production capacity and has the ability to dynamically adjust the production capacity of colloidal gold platform. It is a manufacturer with relatively abundant production capacity among the approved products. In terms of channel capability, the company has established relatively complete sales channels in medical institutions at all levels, retail pharmacies and online sales platforms in China, and has the ability to quickly cover the market.
