Today is another day when A-Shares and Hong Kong shares staged a "big shock".
At the same time, due to the excessive decline, funds and stocks have been pushed into a hot search.
Let's look at the data first: as of the closing on March 14, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.60% to 322353 points, and the gem fell 3.56% to 257045 points. The turnover on that day fell slightly to 970.64 billion yuan compared with the previous day, and the net outflow of funds going north was 14.408 billion yuan, indicating that there was great pressure on foreign capital outflow.
In terms of industry, the performance of national defense and military industry, medicine and non bank finance is relatively good, while the performance of food and beverage and consumer service is relatively weak.
When will this wave of decline end? Is there any market in the future? The reporter of China Fund News interviewed more than 25 fund companies, including GF, Nanfang, Central Europe, harvest, Boshi, China Merchants, Huatai Bairui, Jingshun Great Wall, CITIC Prudential, YONGYING, Jinying, HSBC Jinxin, xingyin, Western Lide, Cathay Pacific, Debang, Everbright Prudential, Zheshang, CAITONG, Donghai, Yinhua, Hang Seng Qianhai, Hengyue, Qianhai Kaiyuan and great wall.
These fund companies have said that short-term shocks do not change the medium and long-term investment value. Now there is no reason to be too pessimistic.
multiple factors triggered A-share crash
What caused the market fluctuation on March 14? The main reasons given by the fund companies are the tension between Russia and Ukraine, the continuous decline of China concept stocks, the continuous deterioration of the epidemic in many places, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and market panic.
A relevant person of a large public fund company in Shanghai said that the market fluctuated violently today, mainly because the tension between Russia and Ukraine continued to suppress market sentiment. On Friday, the three major stock indexes of the United States closed down, and China concept stocks continued to decline, impacting the sentiment of the A-share market. Secondly, the financial data in February weakened periodically, lower than market expectations. Third, recently, the epidemic situation in many places in China has continued to deteriorate. Some areas have opened community closed management, which has impacted the consumption and service industries. Finally, under the influence of a variety of internal and external negative factors, northbound funds sold net for 6 consecutive days, with a significant net sales of 14.408 billion yuan throughout the day.
The above-mentioned person said that it is expected that the expectation of interest rate increase in the peripheral market is still suppressed, and may be impacted by external conflicts in the short term, but the steady growth policy is expected to continue to work, China's liquidity is expected to be further relaxed, the credit confirmation has hit the bottom, and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of a shares.
Boshi Fund said that the current A-share market is greatly affected by external factors and the market sentiment is more unstable, which makes the index fluctuate greatly. Since last week, there has been a significant net outflow of funds from the north, which has further dragged down the sentiment of A-share investors and reduced risk appetite again. As there are still variables in the Russian Ukrainian war and the boots of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March have not yet landed, these external factors will still disturb the mood in the near future, thus affecting the trend of a shares, and the probability will show a wide fluctuation trend.
Qianhai Kaiyuan said that the main reasons for the sharp decline in the market are as follows: 1) the epidemic situation in China has rebounded significantly and epidemic control has been strengthened in many places; 2) Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the confrontation between major countries has intensified, which is still causing global financial turmoil. On the one hand, the recent large outflow of foreign capital, especially the overseas long money represented by the allocation board, on the other hand, the CSRC identified five Chinese concept companies as "identified subjects" with delisting risk according to the foreign company Accountability Act, which also triggered the sharp decline of Chinese concept shares and Hong Kong shares and impacted Chinese sentiment.
YONGYING Fund believes that the tightening expectation of overseas monetary policy, combined with the further outflow of overseas sovereign funds from the Chinese market, has triggered liquidity concerns. Specifically, the reasons for market fluctuations come from several aspects: first, overseas, the upward risk of global inflation has not been alleviated. Under inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates for the first time, which means that overseas monetary policy will be further tightened.
The second is the fear of overseas capital outflow. After Norway's sovereign fund removed a Chinese company from the investment list last week, Australia's pension fund also announced its withdrawal from China's listed stock market this week, raising concerns about the continued outflow of overseas funds from the Chinese market.
Third, in China, the latest social finance data was significantly lower than expected, mainly because the residents' medium and long-term loans turned negative for the first time in history, corresponding to a large decline in real estate sales, which led to a weaker expectation of China's economic repair.
China Merchants Fund said that the sharp adjustment of the A-share market today is closely related to the following three points: first, China's social finance data in February showed that residents' medium and long-term loans have turned negative, indicating that even under the current monetary easing, the demand for physical financing continues to decline;
Second, the covid-19 epidemic situation has rebounded significantly across the country, and there is a certain and partial shutdown risk in the short term. Combined with the recent market performance, the core of this round of adjustment lies in the rapid shift of the current market pricing state to "stagflation". While the sharp inflation of physical assets, investment, consumption, export and employment are facing great challenges. Under strict supervision, intertwined epidemic and increased geographical risks, enterprises and residents independently shrink their balance sheets, which is also reflected in the greater pressure on the liability side of institutional investors. At present, whether for the residential sector, enterprise sector or investors, they are facing the decline of profit expectation, the rise and high fluctuation of discount rate expectation.
Third, the Federal Reserve will hold a meeting this week after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said he would consider raising interest rates by 25bp in March to curb inflation.
Everbright Prudential Fund said that overseas risks brought capital disturbance and further exacerbated the volatility of a shares. On the one hand, the increased volatility in overseas markets and the risk of stagflation have led to the continued hawkish of the Federal Reserve and increased pressure on capital outflow. On the other hand, more importantly, geopolitical risks, confrontation and game among major powers have intensified, and foreign capital and overseas "long money" have flowed out sharply for reasons such as security. The long-term funds reflect the function of "value discovery", which means that the rebound expected by the market may take longer.
Western benefit fund said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to ferment and still faced uncertainty; At the same time, the repeated outbreaks in China may affect the strength of consumption recovery, resulting in major adjustments in a shares, especially consumption related sectors.
CITIC Prudential Fund said that the market depth adjustment was mainly due to: first, the CSRC included five zhonggai ADRs in the delisting risk list. On the same day, zhonggai shares fluctuated sharply. Zhonggai shares triggered foreign investors' concerns about the Hong Kong stock market and A-share market, causing foreign investors to continue to withdraw A-shares. Second, the epidemic situation in many cities has intensified in recent days, and the market is worried again about the postponement of the time point of economic recovery and consumption recovery. Third, the total amount of new credit and social finance was lower than expected, and the structural problems remained prominent. The medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises increased significantly year-on-year respectively, and the medium and long-term loans of residents showed negative growth for the first time, indicating that the demand for physical financing is still weak, and the demand for mortgage is still weak under the continuous decline of real estate sales. Fourth, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to a sharp rise in commodity prices led by nickel in the short term, and the market is obviously worried about the performance expectation of the midstream manufacturing industry.
Yang Hong, manager of Donghai fund technology power fund, believes that the recent turmoil in the equity market may be mainly due to several aspects: the first is the high degree of geopolitical uncertainty; the second is the landing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in March; the third is that the financial data in February was significantly lower than expected, leading to risk aversion; and the fourth is the repeated outbreak in China.
Weak economic expectations and rising risk-free interest rates have weakened fundamentals, lowered the valuation center, and increased upward pressure on share prices.
Since March, the outbreak of the epidemic has increased uncertainty in the already fragile market, and the overseas geopolitical turmoil has also exacerbated the overall volatility of the global market.
Hong Kong stocks fell sharply, opportunities are brewing
Compared with a shares, Hong Kong stocks, especially the Hang Seng technology index, fell more than 11% on March 14.
As for the future market, many fund companies believe that there are domestic and foreign troubles in the Hong Kong stock market, but investment opportunities are gradually emerging.
"The sharp decline in the Hong Kong stock market on Monday is still dominated by trading level factors. First, due to the redemption pressure faced by global emerging market funds, overseas investors passively sell Hong Kong stocks. At present, the trading of Russian stocks is still suspended and cannot be sold and realized, which may also cause some investors to replace Hong Kong stocks to reduce their positions and raise funds." Cheng Yu, director and fund manager of HSBC Jinxin overseas investment department, said that secondly, due to the increased volatility of offshore Chinese stocks, it can not be ruled out that some Chinese investors have also accelerated the redemption of Hong Kong stock funds recently, which also caused negative feedback on the transaction. Third, due to the uncertainty of ADR delisting, China concept stocks suffered a sharp decline. Due to the relatively perfect arbitrage mechanism of Hong Kong stocks and US stocks, the relevant stocks listed in Hong Kong were also short. In addition, the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the upcoming FOMC meeting this week also led hedge funds to actively short the Hong Kong stock market.
Due to the relatively weak liquidity of Hong Kong stocks, the stock price is prone to violent fluctuations when they are under huge capital pressure in the short term. However, it must also be noted that under the background of stable and good fundamentals, based on the perspective of medium and long-term fundamentals and valuation, the current Hong Kong stock market has been in the deep value range.
Zhan Jia, director of the International Business Department of Everbright Prudential fund, said that the recent market was mainly affected by adverse factors such as the lower than expected Internet performance, the accountability of U.S. stocks and China Securities Regulatory Commission, the potential pressure of the United States on China on the issue of Russia and Ukraine, the withdrawal of overseas sovereign funds from China's equity market, and the Chinese epidemic. Due to the high proportion of foreign capital in the circulating market value of Hong Kong stocks, in addition to the Internet, other sectors have also made up for the decline irrationally recently, and the sentiment has dominated the market.
At present, it is still recommended not to touch companies with high dynamic P / E ratio or sectors greatly affected by negative policies. Try to find opportunities in sectors that underestimate the value and grow unaffected by the epidemic. At the same time, there will be differences before the long-term value of short funds, and the opportunities on the right side of the Hang Seng index may be greater in the future than in the past.
Hang Seng Qianhai Fund said that the Hang Seng Index fell below 20000 points, a new low in recent six years, and the Hang Seng technology index fell below 4000 points, a new low since the release of the index, mainly due to three reasons:
First, the resurgence of covid-19 epidemic has exacerbated the market's concerns about the economy. The financial and credit data in February were weaker than expected, adding that the covid-19 epidemic in Hong Kong was still continuing, and the epidemic in some Chinese cities also tended to worsen over the weekend, which once again triggered the market's concerns about the economy of China and Hong Kong, thus stimulating the demand for risk aversion.
Second, the drag of concept stocks in US stocks. Last Friday, China concept stocks continued to fall sharply. At present, the global market is in an emotional environment with high sensitivity and strong vulnerability. The potential risks faced by China concept stocks are still uncertain. Pessimistic expectations directly led to the continuous sharp decline of China concept stocks, dragged down the performance of Hang Seng technology index with high correlation, and also impacted the main board of Hong Kong stocks.
Third, the lack of confidence accelerates the withdrawal of foreign capital. Recently, western countries' sanctions against Russia have developed from conventional economic and trade restrictions, financial cut-off and sports ban on Russia to freezing and confiscating Russian overseas assets. To a large extent, this has broken the consensus of the past market on the "sanctity and inviolability of private property", triggered the panic of transnational investment and reduced investment confidence to the freezing point, resulting in the urgent and accelerated sale of overseas assets by foreign capital. The negative impact on the Hong Kong market with a large amount of "foreign" is the most direct, which is reflected in the current continuous decline in the Hong Kong stock market.
Although Hong Kong stocks have undergone substantial adjustments and their valuations are at historic lows, they are expected to remain volatile and the rotation between sectors will continue under the influence of tight liquidity, foreign geopolitics and other factors. In the short term, it is suggested to focus on some undervalued industries related to the "steady growth" policy, as well as industries with a high probability of being revalued in the Hong Kong market, such as green power, energy storage and other sectors, and pay attention to industries that may be given policy support after being affected by the downward pressure of the economy, such as consumer and financial industries, But avoid industries and companies that are highly influenced by industry policies and political factors.
Jingshun Great Wall Fund said that the recent Hong Kong stock market is facing multiple adverse factors under the "internal and external attack": on the one hand, the number of newly diagnosed cases of covid-19 epidemic in Hong Kong is still high, and the spread of the epidemic in many places in China has also aroused investors' more concerns about the epidemic situation; On the other hand, under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, global inflation expectations rose again and equity assets were under pressure. The first "temporary delisting list" released by the SEC also put pressure on the Hong Kong stock market, especially Internet companies.
In the short term, it is expected that under the "internal and external attack", the Hong Kong market may still lead to market shock and consolidation before the dust settles. In the medium and long term, the current valuation level of the Hong Kong market has been in a low position. With the gradual development of "stable growth" in the future, the stabilization and recovery of China's economy, and the gradual digestion of current uncertainty by overseas and A-share markets, the Hong Kong market is expected to stabilize gradually.
Western gains Fund said that in terms of Hong Kong stocks, the CSRC identified five listed companies in the United States as "relevant issuers" with delisting risk last Thursday, which led to the continuous selling of some foreign capital on technology sectors similar to Hong Kong stocks. At the same time, Didi's listing process in Hong Kong on Friday was subject to twists and turns again, causing the market to worry about the policy of the Internet sector. The short-term sentiment and capital pressure led to a significant adjustment of the Hang Seng technology index.
Looking forward to the future, the policy area pays great attention to the communication progress between the CSRC and the U.S. regulatory authorities and the listing process of Didi. If it is actively implemented, the market risk appetite is also expected to warm up. In the medium and long term, with the improvement of macro-economy, the profits of mainstream technology companies are expected to improve. After the recent adjustment of Hang Seng technology related companies, they may have better medium and long-term investment value, which deserves special attention.
In addition, Qu Shaojie, assistant general manager of the International Business Department of Great Wall Fund, said that there are three reasons for the continuous adjustment of Hong Kong stocks recently:
First, geopolitical conflicts continue to evolve. As of today, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has broken out for more than two weeks, triggering a series of crises and risks. The global market, including the Hong Kong stock market, has fluctuated sharply, reflecting global concerns about the energy crisis, debt crisis, geopolitical crisis and economic downturn. All kinds of commodities have soared, while the stock markets of various countries have fallen sharply.
The second is the transmission of concerns. In December 2021, the SEC announced that it had passed the amendment and issued the detailed rules of the foreign company Accountability Act. On March 11, us time, the SEC included five Chinese concept companies in the provisional list of the foreign company Accountability Act. Companies on the list for three consecutive years will be banned from listing and trading. Chinese concept shares fell sharply, followed by Hong Kong stocks, with obvious stampede caused by capital flight.
Foreign investment is the third departure. Looking back on the market over the past year, the open short selling value of Hong Kong stocks has shown an upward trend since March 2021, and has risen to near the historical high since 2022. The market has a strong bearish mood and extremely pessimistic mood. At the same time, European and American funds reduced the allocation of Hong Kong stock market due to the consideration of comprehensively reducing equity positions, and European and American funds withdrew significantly.
He said that the risks experienced by Hong Kong stocks this time are phenomenal: there are strict industry supervision, antitrust, epidemic impact, economic pressure, external war, withdrawal of foreign capital and accountability of China concept shares.
At present, there is an obvious correction in the Hong Kong stock market, which has fallen below the low point when the epidemic just broke out in early 2020, approaching the low point in early 2016, and hitting the long-term support of the 250 month moving average for the first time in 30 years. Whether from the perspective of technical indicators or withdrawal range, the downward space of Hong Kong stocks in the future is relatively limited, and the long-term allocation value has been highlighted.
"At present, Hong Kong stocks have a considerable cost performance in terms of valuation and chips, or provide a good admission opportunity for stable long-term investors. We can pay attention to the strategic allocation value of Hong Kong stock assets from a long-term perspective." He said.
A-Shares have the same medium and long-term trend
short term or shock pattern
The short-term shock does not change the long-term good pattern. Many fund people believe that the current market investment opportunities are gradually increasing, and there is nothing worth continuing to be pessimistic.
\u3000\u3000 "The situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Fed's interest rate hike, the outbreak of the epidemic and other internal and external factors lead to a strong pessimism in the current market. The short-term market is repeated, and the shock pattern is still expected. However, these negative factors are relatively short-term factors. At present, the market may have begun to enter the classic bottom seeking and bottom building process. After the external negative factors are removed, A-Shares will be sold It is expected to usher in a clearer uplink starting point signal. " The views of relevant investors of China Southern Fund represent the general views of current institutions.
Boshi fund also said that under the condition of no essential bad economic fundamentals and relatively friendly policies and liquidity, the medium and long-term good trend of A-Shares remains unchanged. Its high-quality leading enterprises still have good investment value in new energy, science and technology, advanced manufacturing and other sectors benefiting from economic transformation.
Cathay Pacific Fund believes that there is nothing worth continuing to be pessimistic. In terms of monetary policy, the central bank still has room for further easing, and it is possible to cut interest rates or reserve requirements in the short term; In terms of real estate policy, we can also see that there is also a trend of marginal easing under the premise of "housing without speculation". There are two main emotions that dominate the market, one is greed and the other is fear. Now the market must be very scared, so I hope investors can be greedy at this time.
YONGYING Fund believes that the current market adjustment is coming to an end, mainly based on the dawn of the negotiations between the two sides of the recent geopolitical conflict. At the same time, the rise of commodity prices has slowed down, and it is expected that the price of resource products may return to rationality. Looking forward to the future, whether global inflation impacts the downstream through price increases or the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction, on the whole, the gradual slowdown of global demand is relatively more clear. Even if China's short-term financial data is low, it may only lead to the gradual increase of policy strength, and steady growth is a more certain direction.
Everbright Prudential Fund said that the overall short-term cost performance of A-Shares has further improved. Even without considering the index valuation, many stocks have entered the configurable range. Considering China's economic target of 5.5%, the easing policy is expected to continue to be introduced, and the market is expected to rebound in the shock. Although the medium-term market recovery depends on the effect of steady growth, such as the verification of the bottom of the economy, the emergence of new business directions in large segments of technology and consumption, etc. If the situation in Russia and Ukraine does not deteriorate further, the landing of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in March and the increase of China's wide credit may bring a short-term rebound.
Western Lide Fund said that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and market liquidity need to be further observed, and the market may still be at the bottom of shock. With the gradual stabilization of the external situation and the gradual digestion of inflation expectations, we are still not pessimistic about the market in the medium and long term. Focus on the main line of global inflation in the short term. In the medium and long term, the science and technology sector with high growth and the consumer sector benefiting from the recovery of the epidemic still deserve special attention.
Deppon Fund said that in the short term, it is expected that the fluctuation of A-share market will continue to enlarge, but at present, the pessimistic expectation of the market has been fully reflected, and the valuation has returned to the center. In the future, the A-share market still has good allocation value, and with the gradual decline of internal and external uncertainties, investors regain confidence, and A-shares are expected to return to the upward channel.
Xingyin Fund said that the recent overseas interest rate hike is expected to suppress global risk appetite, which is reflected in the suppression of gem valuation in the Chinese market. China's economy is in the transition stage from the "recession period" to the "end of the recession", the performance growth of listed companies has accelerated to the bottom, and China's equity market does not have a comprehensive upward driving force. However, considering that after the two sessions in March, the policies related to steady growth will be further implemented, and the allocation can be moderately balanced, the growth sector can be gradually optimistic.
Zheshang Fund believes that the valuation of leading enterprises with global competitive advantages in the growth of science and technology has returned to a reasonable range. From the perspective of long-term investment thinking, they already have investment value; In addition, based on the bottom line assumption, as long as the market environment is better than 2018, there are structural opportunities. In this regard, we believe that China's environment in 2022 is much stronger than that of "Macroeconomic contraction + industrial kinetic energy depletion" in 2018. Therefore, we remain confident in the future.
Hengyue Fund said that at present, the strength and effect of steady growth policy and the rhythm and attitude of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates still dominate the A-share market. Looking forward to the future, when the overseas stagflation risk is not alleviated, the Fed is difficult to change its position quickly. China's credit easing is lower than expected in stages, while the epidemic restricts the progress of infrastructure construction in stages. It is expected that the market will continue to grind the bottom and fluctuate in the short term.
Golden Eagle Fund said that the short-term market is weak, but from a medium-term perspective, there is no need to be too pessimistic. After the situation in Russia and Ukraine became clear, the rebound trend of A-Shares remained. At present, although the Russian Ukrainian negotiations have not achieved substantive results and inflation concerns need to be digested, Chinese high-quality listed companies have released the latest business conditions from January to February to boost market confidence. In the follow-up, we need to wait for the introduction of more substantive policies or the improvement of economic and financial indicators after the two sessions. At present, there is no need to be too pessimistic about the market. We have observed that the performance price ratio of stocks and bonds of various important indexes has been at an all-time high, and the performance price ratio of equity investment is becoming prominent. In the future, as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine slows down, the main line of the market will return to the first quarterly report dominated by performance. Commodity prices fall, risk appetite is repaired, and A-Shares may still rebound.
Harvest Fund said that looking forward to the future, the above short-term factors do not change the long-term improvement of China's economic fundamentals. First of all, the recently released social finance data in February showed that the new social finance was 1.19 trillion yuan, which was less than the expected 2.22 trillion yuan, but there were seasonal reasons, epidemic prevention and real estate restriction policies. In a single month, there were accidental factors, and the implementation of loose policies was still good for a long time. Secondly, there are new epidemic cases, but China has a complete epidemic prevention system and practical experience in epidemic prevention, and the impact of new epidemic cases on the economy is more controllable. Finally, although geopolitical conflicts increase risk aversion and generate potential inflation concerns, China's CPI in 2022 is basically controllable and stable growth is expected to be sustainable.
In the market, we can continue to pay attention to the industry sectors that underestimate the value and benefit from the steady growth policy. Especially close to the annual report and the first quarter earnings disclosure window, after the risk aversion is fully released, the market focus may return to the fundamentals of listed companies.
short term optimistic about optional consumption + infrastructure
China Europe Fund said that the continuous decline of the market has released the risk of A-share valuation differentiation, and A-share has gradually emerged the opportunity of reallocation, especially in related fields such as optional consumption and infrastructure investment, which are more sensitive to the theme of economic stabilization. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities under the main line of China's steady economic growth, mainly in the areas with large incremental elasticity in the infrastructure investment related to steady growth, especially the energy infrastructure and new energy power operators involved in the dual carbon field; As well as the financial industry driven by China's loose policies and other expected fields such as building materials, construction services, real estate and property services.
GF said that from the perspective of valuation, after adjustment, the current A-share valuation has a certain investment value. Whether assessed from valuation or risk premium, the early market decline has released a certain risk. From the industry level, the valuation quantile of most industries has been below 20%, including military industry, medicine, electronics, food and beverage, etc. With the gradual announcement of the performance forecast of the first quarterly report of listed companies, it is expected that the stock price will gradually return to the fundamental research and judgment. At present, the prosperity of new energy related subdivided industries is relatively strong. It is suggested to gradually pay attention to the representative sectors of "high prosperity growth", such as photovoltaic, wind power, etc.
Huatai Bairui Fund said that the pressure of short-term overseas high inflation has eased, and the market is waiting for a clear direction of steady growth policy. In the early stable growth environment, the market pays more attention to the infrastructure chain. We believe that there is still potential policy space for real estate and related industrial chains. The periodic contradictions brought by energy transformation have not been eliminated, and China's power supply and its impact on relevant industries can not be ignored. In the medium term, industrial transformation is still inseparable from the participation of advanced manufacturing industry, especially in the sectors represented by smart cars and new household appliances, which have both consumption boost and high-end manufacturing.
Yinhua Fund said that in the medium term, the Chinese market may be relatively resilient. China's growth and policy cycle are relatively favorable, and the reserve space for the "steady growth" policy is relatively sufficient. The follow-up "steady growth" policy will continue to work, and may gradually improve around the second quarter; Structurally, the short-term undervalued "steady growth" sector may have relative benefits. After the macro risks gradually subside, the high boom growth fields and the middle and lower reaches manufacturing industry squeezed by costs may usher in a turnaround.
Deppon Fund said that in the near future, the market can pay more attention to some sectors with determined operating performance and relatively low valuation, and do some defensive allocation. After the market sentiment picks up, we will focus on high-quality companies with bottom performance turnover, improved business environment and moat.
Jin Zicai, assistant general manager of CAITONG fund and director of fund investment department, said that the restrained demand of service industry in recent two years will be released, and the demand of service industry represented by aviation and hotels is expected to increase significantly. In addition, with the normalization of epidemic prevention and control, the marginal impact of the epidemic on the production and sales of food and beverage may be weakened. Under the arrangement of steady growth measures, consumer confidence is expected to gradually strengthen, and the price increase space accumulated in food and beverage related industries will be gradually released.
Xingyin Fund said that it was optimistic about two main lines in March: 1. Energy chain. Under the tense situation between Russia and Ukraine, global energy prices may remain high for a long time. Industry: Petroleum and petrochemical, nonferrous metals, coal. 2. Growth chain. After the two sessions, with the liberalization of real estate and the gradual implementation of relevant rescue policies for small and medium-sized enterprises, the growth style is expected to stabilize and rebound. Industry: power equipment and new energy, medicine, counting from east to west.
Yang Hong, manager of Donghai fund's science and technology power fund, believes that from the perspective of meso industry, the science and technology industry represented by new energy and military industry has corresponding allocation value from the perspective of industry prosperity or performance valuation, so it is suggested to pay active attention to it.
China Southern Fund said that in terms of industry allocation, with the steady growth policy, the pull of infrastructure investment will bring more opportunities to the financial and construction industry chain, and there is still policy catalysis in the undervalued sector; Upstream raw materials and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries benefit from inflation and their profitability continues to improve, which is worthy of attention; In terms of emerging industries, we can pay attention to the investment opportunities of new infrastructure sectors such as digital infrastructure, new energy storage, photovoltaic and wind power. In addition, pay attention to the performance forecast of the first quarterly report and find the direction of high growth and high prosperity.
In addition, Harvest Fund said that for the recently concerned zhonggai shares, affected by external factors such as international geographical conflicts, the recent sharp decline of zhonggai shares is accidental. From the perspective of the developed market, the fluctuation of the investment in the offshore market is higher than that in the developed market, and the fluctuation of the investment in the offshore market is relatively large. Overall, at present, the share price of zhonggai shares has fallen more and is more affected by the news and emotional trading, but high-quality companies still have a solid fundamental foundation, which has little to do with the valuation itself.
In fact, when the market is adjusting, there will always be a lot of irrational voices or emotions. For example, in 2018, the market also had irrational voices. But looking back now, these market adjustments and fluctuations, especially those caused by accidental factors, are only twists and turns on the way to the good for a long time. We believe that this state will not last for a long time, and we are still very confident in the high-quality companies.
On the whole, the long-term positive trend of China's overall economy has not changed. With the introduction of policies in various aspects, it can be expected to play a further positive role in the high-quality development of the economy and the economy will develop better and healthily. Echoing the investment clues, from a medium - and long-term perspective, we are still firmly optimistic about investment directions with high growth space, including green power, smart cars, life technology, emerging consumption and so on; For the medium and short term, we still maintain the judgment of abundant structural opportunities in the future market and are relatively optimistic about "stable growth", such as infrastructure; Dilemma reversal, such as logistics, aviation and agriculture; High prosperity continues, such as new energy, semiconductors, etc
latest news from Russia and Ukraine
Russian Ukrainian Negotiator: communication between the two sides is difficult at the beginning of the fourth round of negotiations, but it continues
On the 14th local time, podoliyak, a member of the Ukrainian delegation to the Russian Ukrainian negotiations, said on his social media that the fourth round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine had begun. Both Ukraine and Russia have actively expressed their respective positions, and the two sides are still in communication.
He also pointed out that there are difficulties in the negotiations, and the differences between the two sides are caused by the differences in the political system between Ukraine and Russia.
a dot u missile was intercepted near the Donetsk government building
debris caused 20 deaths and 9 injuries
On the 14th, a dot u missile was intercepted near the Donetsk government building, causing damage to some buildings and fire.
A preliminary analysis said that the missile was intercepted by the Donetsk air defense system, but the missile engine and some cluster munitions fell into the city center, causing damage.
Donetsk local defense headquarters said that at least 20 people were killed and 9 injured by dot u missile debris.
military administration of Kiev, Ukraine:
all infrastructure is in normal operation and martial law is still in force
On the 14th local time, the military administration of Kiev, Ukraine, issued a statement saying that all infrastructure in Kiev, including transportation and medical treatment, were operating normally. People can use public transport between 8 and 19, and pharmacies, shops, gas stations and parking lots are also open.
The statement again reminded that the city's martial law is still in force, residents need to abide by the curfew rules, and enter the shelter in time when there is an air defense alarm.
Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine: 10 new humanitarian corridors have been agreed
In a video speech on the morning of the 14th, Deputy Prime Minister Irina veleshuk of Ukraine said that Kiev and Lugansk had agreed on 10 new humanitarian corridors.
adviser to the director of the office of the president of Ukraine: the Ukrainian side will discuss security and Russian withdrawal in the fourth round of negotiations
On the 14th, the adviser to the director of the office of the president of Ukraine said that in the fourth round of Ukrainian Russian negotiations, Ukraine will discuss security and Russian withdrawal.
"The fourth round of negotiations with the Russian delegation will begin in a few minutes, and our position remains unchanged: peace, an immediate ceasefire and the withdrawal of all Russian troops. Only in this way can we talk about any good neighbourly relations and political solutions," he said in a video posted on his social account.
Russian Ministry of Defense: 3920 Ukrainian military infrastructures have been paralyzed
On March 14 local time, according to the latest news released by the Russian Ministry of defense, 3920 Ukrainian military infrastructures have been paralyzed since the start of the special military operation. These include 143 UAVs, 1267 tanks and armored vehicles, 124 multiple rocket launchers, 457 guns and mortars, and 1028 special military vehicles.
On the 13th, the Russian army also attacked the military center used for foreign mercenary training in Lvov state in western Ukraine, and a large number of foreign mercenaries were eliminated. Ukrainian President Zelensky again called for the establishment of a no fly zone in Ukraine on the 13th.
Russia claims to eliminate 180 foreign mercenaries, while Ukraine denies
According to the US cable news network (CNN) reported on the 13th, Ukraine denied the statement that the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the Russian army eliminated up to 180 foreign mercenaries through precision strikes, and called it "pure Russian propaganda".
Earlier on the 13th, Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Eaglerise Electric & Electronic (China) Co.Ltd(002922) . Konashenkov said at a press conference, "On the morning of March 13, high-precision long-range weapons attacked the Ukrainian armed forces training center and yavorovsky military training ground in starichi village - known as yavorovsky by the Russian side Military training ground. The Kiev authorities set up a training and coordination point for foreign mercenaries in these facilities, then sent mercenaries to the area where they took hostile action against Russian military personnel, and set up a base for storing foreign weapons and military equipment. As a result of the strike, up to 180 foreign mercenaries and a large number of foreign weapons were cleared. The elimination of foreign mercenaries arriving in Ukraine will continue. "
In response to Konashenkov's statement, Ukrainian Defense Ministry spokesman markiyan lubkovsky told CNN, "this is not true. (this is) pure Russian propaganda". He further pointed out that it has not been confirmed that foreigners were among the dead at the yavolov military base.
Earlier on the 13th, a number of foreign media reported that Ukrainian defense minister leznikov said that the Ukrainian yavolov military training ground was attacked in the early morning of the same day, and foreign military instructors worked in it. At least 35 people have been killed and 134 injured.
It is reported that the military training ground is close to the border of NATO country Poland and is known as the "international peacekeeping and security center". The United States and other NATO countries often send military instructors to help train Ukrainian soldiers. The training ground is also often used for joint military exercises of NATO countries.
