On January 2, Tianfeng International released the Research Report on airpods shipment forecast.
Analyst Guo Mingyu said that since the shipment of airpods in the fourth quarter of 2021 was better than expected, reaching about 27 million units, the shipment of airpods in 2022 was revised to 90 million units. The forecast is significantly better than the 65-75 million units expected by the market and the 85 million units previously estimated by Jibang consulting.
Guo Mingxuan pointed out in his report that according to his latest survey, airpods has regained its growth momentum. In the fourth quarter of 2021, airpods shipments increased by 107% month on month and 20% year-on-year. For the whole year, the shipment of airpods in 2021 was about 72 million units, although it decreased by 18% year-on-year, but it was significantly better than the 55-65 million units agreed by the market.
the off-season in the first quarter was not light, and airpods regained its growth momentum
Looking ahead to 2022, Guo Mingxuan estimated that the demand for airpods in the first quarter will not be weak in the off-season. Strong demand pushed up the shipment of about 25 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32%.
Turning to the reason why the shipment of airpods has been better than expected for two consecutive quarters, Guo Mingyi believes that Apple’s launch of airpods 3 and price reduction of airpods 2 in the fourth quarter of 2021 is the key to its success. The sharp drop in airpods shipments in the first three quarters of 2021 is mainly due to Apple’s failure to launch new products in time or provide lower prices when the market competition suddenly strengthened significantly.
On October 19, 2021, Apple launched the previously preheated airpods 3, priced at 1399 yuan, which supports adaptive EQ, spatial audio, etc. Airpods 2 immediately reduced its price by 280 yuan to 999 yuan, falling below the 1000 yuan mark.
Tianfeng international also predicted in the report that Apple will launch airpods Pro 2 in the fourth quarter of 2022. Its selling points include new appearance design, support for Apple Lossless (alac) format, and the sound of charging box for users to find. For the demand of this product, Guo Mingxuan estimated that its shipment volume in 2022 would be 18-20 million units.
Moreover, it also believes that airpods may support health management functions in the future. This innovation will redefine TWS and make structural changes in market demand.
Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Goertek Inc(002241) or become the biggest winner
The composition of airpods components is complex. There are more than 100 workstations in a production line. At present, Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) and Goertek Inc(002241) are the main suppliers of airpods EMS. Guo Mingyu believes that these two companies will be the biggest winners for airpods to regain its growth momentum.
It is worth mentioning that the share prices of the above two companies have risen sharply since the fourth quarter of 2021. Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) from September 21 to December 31, 2021, the share price rose 46.73%. Goertek Inc(002241) from October 15 to December 31, the share price also rose nearly 40%.
In addition, Tianfeng international suggests that investors can pay attention to suppliers with large share price correction in the fourth quarter of 2021 / the second half of 2021 due to weak airpods shipments, including: Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) , xinrixing, Xuande, Zhending, varta and Amkor.
(Financial Associated Press)
