Since the second half of 2021, the sales growth of real estate enterprises has continued to slow down and the market has cooled significantly. In the whole year, the performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises has rarely seen negative growth, and the overall target completion is far less than that in the same period in history. More than 80% of real estate enterprises have not completed the annual sales target.
Industry insiders believe that at present, the expected market bottom has not really come, the real estate market is still difficult to be optimistic in the short term, and the national commercial housing sales scale will enter an era of no growth. It is expected that a certain scale of real estate enterprises will still face the dilemma of negative growth in 2022.
rare negative growth in sales growth of large-scale real estate enterprises
According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, in December 2021, the top 100 real estate enterprises realized a sales trading amount of 994.01 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 35.2% and a month on month increase of 32.4% compared with November. From the perspective of cumulative performance, the cumulative performance growth of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued to slow down during the year. By the end of December 2021, the cumulative sales trading amount was 3.5% lower than that in 2020, and the sales growth of large-scale real estate enterprises rarely showed negative growth.
In 2021, the overall performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises was lower than that in the same period last year. According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, by the end of December, the cumulative performance of nearly 400 top real estate enterprises had decreased year-on-year, and the number of enterprises with negative growth in sales scale had significantly increased compared with 2020. In terms of monthly performance, in December, the monthly performance of more than 80% of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased year-on-year, of which more than 60% decreased by more than 30% year-on-year, and the monthly performance of 20 real estate enterprises decreased both month on month.
China Index Research Institute pointed out that in recent years, under the strict real estate regulation policies, the development scale of the industry has gradually stabilized, and the performance growth of 10 billion enterprises has also gradually slowed down. With the gradual transformation of industry logic, high-quality development has become the main goal of enterprise development. From the data, the average growth rate of sales of 10 billion enterprises in 2021 was 4.2%, far lower than 36.9% in 2017. The industry has entered the channel of speed reduction and stability.
According to the statistics of China Index Research Institute, except for the high growth rate of enterprises in the 30 billion-50 billion camp, the growth rate of enterprises in other camps slowed down year-on-year. Among them, the development of large enterprises with more than 300 billion yuan is more stable, with an average sales volume of 482.57 billion yuan and an average sales growth rate of 1.4%; 100 billion-300 billion enterprises and 50 billion-100 billion enterprises are deeply engaged in key cities, and their performance has maintained stable growth. The average sales volume is 165.09 billion yuan and 71.9 billion yuan respectively, and the average sales growth rate is 0.8% and 3.1% respectively; 30 billion-50 billion enterprises achieved performance growth by expanding market layout, seizing urban structural opportunities and strengthening cooperation, with an average sales growth rate of 15.3%; 10 billion-30 billion enterprises are facing fierce market competition, their business performance is tested, and their sales show negative growth for the first time.
However, some large-scale real estate enterprises performed relatively well in 2021, such as Greentown, China Resources, China Merchants, Jindi, Jianfa, Longguang and Binjiang, which all achieved high cumulative performance year-on-year growth. In addition, country garden will continue to remain the first in the industry in 2021.
more than 80% of real estate enterprises have not completed the annual sales target
In 2021, the overall goal completion of large-scale real estate enterprises is far less than that in the same period in history. According to the statistics of Kerui Research Center, the average target completion rate of large-scale real estate enterprises is less than 90%, which is significantly lower than the average level of more than 105% in recent years. Among some large-scale real estate enterprises that disclosed their annual performance objectives, more than 80% of them had not completed their annual performance objectives by the end of December.
China Index Research Institute also pointed out that from the perspective of 32 representative enterprises that announced annual sales targets, the overall completion rate of sales targets of real estate enterprises in 2021 was significantly lower than that of last year, with an average of 90.1%. Among them, the sales target completion rate of Greentown, China Resources, Binjiang, Zhengrong, Yuexiu, Dafa and other enterprises is more than 100%, and most enterprises have not completed the annual target task.
Among them, the sales target completion rate of 6 real estate enterprises is less than 80%, Evergrande is only 61.5%, capital real estate is only 68.3%, Jinke is 74.9%, contemporary real estate is 76.7%, playful year is 77.7% and Vanke is 78.5%.
For the situation that most real estate enterprises have not completed their annual sales targets, Kerui Research Center said that even if large-scale real estate enterprises have maintained cautious expectations for performance growth and moderately lowered their sales targets last year, the performance pressure of most enterprises is still large under the influence of the sharp cooling of the market and the continuous contraction of enterprise performance in the second half of last year.
large scale real estate enterprises still face negative growth pressure in 2022
In recent years, the regulation of the real estate industry has been tightened continuously, and the growth rate of enterprise scale has continued to slow down since 2016. Kerui Research Center believes that, especially since the second half of 2021, the market has cooled significantly, the project de conversion rate has performed poorly, the monthly performance growth rate of the top 100 real estate enterprises in the industry has continued the downward trend and the decline has been expanding since July last year, and the pressure on sales de conversion and payment collection of real estate enterprises has increased.
Kerui Research Center believes that at present, the expected market bottom has not really come, the real estate market is still difficult to be optimistic in the short term, and the national commercial housing sales scale will enter an era of no growth. In combination with the actual sales targets of large-scale real estate enterprises in 2021, the overall performance expectations of enterprises in 2022 are bound to be more cautious, and the performance targets of some enterprises will be flat or lower year-on-year. In 2022, while ensuring the supply of goods, enterprises need to continue active marketing, promote the de commercialization of sales and cash return. However, it is expected that a certain scale of real estate enterprises will still face the dilemma of negative growth throughout the year.
The China Index Research Institute also believes that the current real estate market has entered the adjustment channel, the pressure on the return of enterprise funds remains unabated, with the arrival of the debt repayment peak, the enterprise capital side continues to be under pressure, and the industry revenue and M & A will increase. In this context, in 2022, real estate enterprises need to follow the trend, control the scale and adjust: accelerate sales collection, focus on the financing window period and ensure the safety of cash flow; Live within your means, optimize urban layout and focus on mainstream cities; Enhance product and service capabilities and enhance brand competitiveness. In addition, in the industry adjustment stage, the advantages of central enterprises and state-owned enterprises are prominent, or new development opportunities will be ushered in. Private enterprises may seek cooperation opportunities with state-owned enterprises to better expand development space.
(Securities Times)
