Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) according to the outlook of stable growth policy in 2022, the first half of 2022 will be the window period for interest rate reduction. It is expected that the short, medium and long-term financing interest rates will be reduced. The 7-day reverse repo interest rate, 1-year MLF interest rate, 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rate will be reduced by 5 BP at the same time, to 2.15% / 2.90% / 3.75% / 4.60% respectively, effectively reducing the financing cost of the real economy. In addition, the recent appreciation of RMB supported by strong export and other factors has provided a moderately loose space for China’s monetary policy. In the environment of China’s broad currency and the Fed’s interest rate increase, the RMB may depreciate in 2022, but the range is limited. It is expected that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will operate in the range of 6.3-6.5 in the first half of the year and fluctuate in the range of 6.5-6.6 in the second half of the year.
(interface News)
