The first trading day of A-Shares in 2022 is coming. Are you ready?
Let’s take a look at the major events affecting the stock market during the new year’s Day holiday and the latest research and judgment of securities analysts.
events affecting A-Shares on New Year’s day
1. The people’s Bank of China has implemented the continuous transformation of two direct tools to increase its support for small and micro enterprises
In order to implement the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on supporting small and micro enterprises, according to the decision of the executive meeting of the State Council, the people’s Bank of China issued a notice to implement the continuous transformation of two direct tools, namely, the inclusive small and micro enterprise loan extension support tool and the inclusive small and micro enterprise credit loan support plan, from January 1, 2022.
2. 7 departments such as the central bank: no institution or individual shall provide online marketing services for illegal stock recommendation and virtual currency transactions
The people’s Bank of China and other seven departments solicited public opinions on the administrative measures for online marketing of financial products (Draft for comments). The exposure draft proposes that no institution or individual shall provide online marketing services for illegal financial activities, including but not limited to illegal fund-raising, illegal issuance of securities, illegal lending, illegal stock recommendation, virtual currency trading, foreign exchange deposit trading, etc; It is not allowed to carry out network marketing for unspecified objects for financial products such as private placement asset management products and non-public issuance of securities.
3. The CSRC issued announcement No. 1, pointing to the “dilemma” in the capital market!
On January 1, 2022, the CSRC issued announcement No. 1 to better compensate the interests of damaged investors. The measures for the administration of commitment funds of parties to securities and futures administrative law enforcement jointly issued by the CSRC and the Ministry of Finance revised the “settlement fund” into “commitment fund”, and issued the provisions on the implementation of commitment system of parties to securities and futures administrative law enforcement (hereinafter referred to as the implementation provisions), which made it clear that the commitment funds paid by parties can be used to compensate investors for losses, Resolve the contradiction between the “difficult investigation and punishment” faced by the law enforcement of the capital market and the “fast investigation and punishment” required by the market.
Specifically, in the commitment fund management measures jointly formulated by the CSRC and the Ministry of finance, the name of “settlement fund” is adjusted to “commitment fund”. At the same time, it is also necessary to further adjust and improve the settlement fund measures in combination with practice. The implementation regulations focus on cases that are difficult to investigate and punish from three aspects: giving full play to the characteristics of the system, steadily and prudently promoting and strengthening supervision and restriction; There are 23 articles in the implementation regulations without chapters, which mainly specify the handling procedures, management and use of commitment funds, etc.
4. Xinhua News Agency: in 2022, the global stock market may experience a “tightening” shock
Looking forward to 2022, the shift of monetary policy of the central banks of major economies such as the Federal Reserve and the uncertainty caused by the repeated epidemic have become two prominent risks facing the market. Analysts believe that the world economic recovery is not stable. Once the monetary environment is excessively tightened, the global stock market may suffer the shock caused by policy “tightening”.
Affected by high international energy prices, global supply chain obstruction and other factors, global inflation has increased significantly, especially in the United States. In November 2021, the US consumer price index rose 6.8% year-on-year, the largest year-on-year increase in nearly 40 years. In order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve announced to accelerate the “table contraction” in December of the same year, and may raise interest rates many times in 2022.
Historically, the tightening cycle of the Fed’s monetary policy often leads to changes in the prices of major global assets, and the stock market may fluctuate violently in the short term. In particular, emerging markets and developing countries will face adverse impacts such as capital outflow, devaluation of local currency and decline in the prices of China’s risky assets.
Takashi Ueno, a researcher at the Nikko Institute of basic research, believes that the negative impact of the US withdrawal from loose monetary policy and its shift to tightening on the global stock market may exceed expectations.
At the same time, the spread of the mutant covid-19 virus Omicron strain has once again challenged the global epidemic prevention and control. After the discovery of the Omicron strain in South Africa, the global stock market fell sharply, highlighting the market vulnerability.
Ulrich cartel, chief economist of Deka Bank of Germany, predicted that if Germany’s control measures to deal with the spread of Omicron virus continue until the spring of 2022, the economy may face a great impact and the stock market may undergo a drastic correction.
5. Make it worse! Hengdahai Nanhai Huadao No. 2 Island 39 building was ordered to dismantle within 10 days
Recently, an administrative punishment decision issued by the comprehensive administrative law enforcement bureau of Danzhou City, Hainan Province was circulated on the Internet. The administrative punishment decision said that Danzhou Xinheng Tourism Development Co., Ltd. is located in the third (sixth) phase of Haihua Island, No. 2, Baimajing Town, Danzhou City. It has built 39 buildings with a total building area of 434941.46 square meters. The planning license obtained in violation of the law has been revoked The project violates the provisions of Article 40 of the urban and rural planning law of the people’s Republic of China. According to the provisions, the company is hereby ordered to dismantle the above illegal buildings within 10 days. If the demolition is not carried out within the time limit, the law enforcement bureau will organize the demolition according to law.
After verification by the reporter, the document is true. It is reported that Danzhou Xinheng Tourism Development Co., Ltd. is a subsidiary of Evergrande, and the above projects were required to stop selling in May 2020 due to environmental protection problems. China Evergrande Hong Kong shares were suspended today.
6. The Hang Seng Index fell on the first trading day of the new year, and Shangtang’s share price soared by more than 40%
Hong Kong stocks ushered in the first trading day of the new year today. The Hang Seng index opened high and went low, closing down 0.53% to close at 23274.75. In terms of individual stocks, Shangtang, which was just listed last week, soared 40.91% to close at HK $7.75, with a total market value of more than HK $250 billion.
7. Four departments: the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% compared with that in 2021
According to the website of the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022. In order to create a stable policy environment, the framework and threshold requirements of the current technical index system of purchase subsidies will remain unchanged in 2022. According to the requirements of the notice of the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of science and technology on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (CJ [2020] No. 86), in 2022, the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021; For qualified vehicles in urban public transport, road passenger transport, rental (including online car Hailing), sanitation, urban logistics and distribution, postal express, civil aviation airport and public service of Party and government organs, the subsidy standard will decline by 20% on the basis of 2021.
8. National development and Reform Commission: the first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects have started about 75 million KW
In order to further promote the high-quality construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base and coordinate various issues, the national development and Reform Commission and the national energy administration took the lead in establishing a work promotion mechanism, implementing monthly scheduling, and guiding local energy competent departments and relevant central enterprises to promote the construction of base projects in strict accordance with the requirements. At present, about 75 million kw of the first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects have been started, and the rest will be started in the first quarter of next year.
9. Foreign media: Indonesia banned coal export this month to ease China’s supply concerns
On January 1, Lianhe Zaobao reported that Indonesia banned coal export in January 2022 because of concerns about China’s insufficient power supply. Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of thermal coal, with an export volume of about 400 million tons in 2020. According to reports, Indonesian online media kumpalan quoted a letter from the Indonesian Ministry of energy as saying that the Ministry of energy informed all ports to store all coal for supply to Chinese power plants and independent power producers (IPPs).
According to Zhang Jinming, an analyst of Guosheng securities coal team, China will import about 16 million tons of thermal coal from Indonesia every month in 2021. If Indonesia prohibits coal export, it will affect 5.3% of the effective supply of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal. Considering that Australian coal is still limited and the import volume of other countries is limited, it is difficult to make up the gap through other countries in the short term, If Indonesia’s export ban continues for a long time, it may cause the China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal market to return to the balance of supply and demand, or even slightly tight.
At the same time, Zhang Jinming’s team also mentioned that under the background that China’s coal price has fallen greatly, the price of imported coal has begun to hang upside down slightly, and the purchase enthusiasm of Chinese end users and traders for imported coal has been greatly limited, the reduction of the amount of imported coal will form a strong support for China’s coal market.
According to the analysis, Indonesia’s average monthly coal import accounts for 5.39% of China’s total coal supply, and the short-term power coal price is expected to bottom. In terms of demand, as of December 29, 2001, the inventory of power plants in eight coastal provinces was 33.698 million tons, a decrease of 3.33% on a weekly basis; The daily consumption was 2.362 million tons, an increase of 11.8% over the previous week. At present, the inventory of the power plant is running at a high level, and the daily consumption is lower than expected, so the procurement demand is poor. In terms of supply, the production task of coal mines will be completed at the end of the year, and more coal mines will stop production and reduce production, but normal production may return after new year’s day. In terms of import, the average monthly coal import volume of Indonesia in 2021 was 16.2088 million tons, accounting for 5.39% of the total monthly coal supply. Under the condition that the coal demand is less than expected, the reduction of imported coal is expected to support the coal price in the short term.
latest research and judgment of top ten securities companies
1, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : blue chip diffusion promotes the “good start” market
The policy synergy is gradually formed. It is expected that the economic stabilization and the recovery of the credit cycle will be verified in January. After the new year, the accelerated influx of incremental funds and the active increase of stock funds are expected to open the “good start” market. After the preview of the blue chip market in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected to spread, and the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year.
First of all, the policies in the first quarter are expected to move from relay to joint force. There is sufficient policy guarantee for stabilizing the economy and market. It is expected that the economic bottom recovery trend in the fourth quarter will be verified in January. At the same time, the recovery of the credit cycle will also improve the market’s expectations for the future economy.
Secondly, it is expected that the “good start” of fund issuance will drive the influx of incremental funds, the game behavior of stock funds will decline and actively increase positions after the next year, and the market began to form a consensus on the market at the beginning of the year. most
After, under the loose policy and mild macro and market environment, the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year, the incremental capital structure style may be more diversified. It is expected that the blue chip market will gradually spread in the dimension of industry and style. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to continue to actively participate in the “good start” market around the “three lows”.
2. Monarch strategy: where is the attack point in spring?
study and judgment of the general trend: smooth and slow, steady and steady. in the last week of 2021, the market remained high and volatile, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.6% to close at 3639.78. Looking back on the negative effects of blue chip bubble, policy risk, power restriction, production and real estate risk in 2021, the market failed to get out of the narrow fluctuation pattern, and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.8% over the whole year. 1) looking forward to 2022: under the background of falling profit end and loose restraint at denominator end, the A-share market will still maintain a range shock with top and bottom, and the overall operation rhythm of the market will be consistent with the general tone of “taking multiple measures simultaneously to promote the smooth operation of the market and resolutely prevent big ups and downs and urgent ups and downs” of the CSRC. 2) further focus on this round of cross year offensive: we also believe that this round of agitation will be more gentle in rhythm. On the one hand, the periodic drive at the denominator end is weakening. At present, the market has fully expected a wide currency rhythm in the first half of 2022. On the other hand, the molecular side still needs to be further verified. The marginal drive brought by the steady growth policy will be verified successively through economic / financial data, which will be the main driver to consolidate this round of cross year market. On the whole, this round of cross year offensive is progressing smoothly in rhythm, and it is more necessary to play steadily in adjusting the structure.
last year this time, the same and different. what is the difference between this round of cross year market and the market in the same period in 2021? In January 2021, under the position of “no sharp turn”, the macro liquidity margin improved. At the same time, with the decline of the risk-free interest rate on the residential asset side, the institutional incremental funds increased significantly. The macro and micro mobility is over expected and the risk appetite continues to be low. The blue chip bubble continues to deduce and drives the Shanghai Composite Index to break through 3500 points and stand on 3600 points for many times. However, at the end of January, the reduction of Omo volume and the increase of dr007 opening price disturbed the expectation at the denominator end, the market showed an obvious correction, and the overall market volatility was large. Based on the current situation, 1) the current macro and micro liquidity performance is weaker than that in the same period in 2021, which makes the upward rhythm of this round of cross year market more moderate. 2) However, different from the loosening of market liquidity expectation at the end of January 2021, the market expectation is stable under the current broad currency direction, which also makes the current round of cross year market more stable. 3) In addition, from the molecular side, different from the fact that the market in January 2021 is completely dominated by the denominator side, the importance of the molecular side of this round of cross year market is rising. Under the tone of “stability” and “progress in stability”, the marginal improvement of the molecular end is worth looking forward to, and also points out the direction for the structural configuration.
stabilize the economy, revitalize infrastructure, and improve the configuration value of infrastructure chain. at the policy level, the economy is facing triple pressures of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, and stabilizing growth has become the core task. Considering the relative weakness of real estate investment and the gradual slowdown of export growth, under the condition that the repair of domestic consumption is a slow variable, generalized infrastructure has become a new starting point. At present, the amount of special bonds in 2022 has been issued 1.46 trillion in advance. According to historical experience, the scale of 2022 is expected. At the same time, the use efficiency of special bonds has also been improved. On the one hand, the preparation of special bond projects in 2022 is significantly ahead of previous years, and the lack of projects may be alleviated. On the other hand, monitoring the actual use progress of special bonds on a monthly basis helps to shorten the time from bond issuance to the formation of physical workload. In terms of the proportion of infrastructure structure, traditional infrastructure is the main body of growth, focusing on transportation, water conservancy projects and other fields. From the perspective of marginal changes, the new energy infrastructure represented by wind power, photovoltaic and BIPV, as well as the new information infrastructure represented by 5g, IDC and satellite Internet, are worth looking forward to.
industry configuration: pay attention to the configuration of consumption and infrastructure chain. recommendation: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture and social service / tourism direction with the support of performance and negative expectations. 2) Infrastructure: grasp the key points of new infrastructure such as BIPV and power operation, and also pay attention to the development of traditional infrastructure under steady growth; 3) Finance: securities companies and banks; 4) Consumer electronics.
3, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : still available for a period, grasp three lines
The recent A-share adjustment, the differentiation of long-term and short-term interest rates and the narrowing of term interest rate spread more reflect the expectation of economic recession and concerns about the effect of credit easing policy. In this context, looking forward to the market situation in January this year, we believe that the A-share market is expected to pick up, the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, and the opportunity at the beginning of the year should be grasped. The main reason for the market recovery in January is that the risk appetite and liquidity at the beginning of the year will be improved.
However, for the duration and height of the market this spring, we believe that we should have reasonable expectations. If there is a large rise, we should consider cashing it in time. This is because compared with the beginning of 2021, both economic expectations and incremental funds are lower than last year. From the perspective of economic expectations, investors had recovery expectations for the economy at the beginning of last year, while the current economic data showed weak performance, and both supply and demand showed a downturn. From the perspective of incremental funds, the issuance of new funds reached nearly 500 billion in January last year, and the issuance scale of new funds this year is difficult to compare with that at the beginning of last year. Therefore, in the spring market over the years, we believe that this year’s spring market should be weak. On the other hand, the strength of the steady growth policy remains to be seen. The release of financial data after the spring festival may be an important time point.
L at present, it is mainly optimistic about three directions
First, we are optimistic about the opportunity of transformation and revaluation of traditional industries with undervalued value: the undervalued sector has higher cost performance and is first repaired in the early stage of the current wide credit. At present, China’s external environment also requires a breakthrough from the transformation. Focus on: thermal power transformation, new energy operation, consumer electronics transformation, automotive electronics, computer media transformation, metauniverse, state-owned enterprise reform and transformation, etc.
Second, the opportunity to complete the adjustment of hard science and technology. Out of concern about performance fulfillment or sustainability, the hard technology industry has experienced a shock correction recently. In the long term, the configuration cost performance has gradually become prominent. If its high prosperity can be further confirmed after the beginning of the year, it is expected to end the adjustment and start a new round of market. Focus on: military industry, semiconductor materials, IGBT, photovoltaic, etc.
Third, focus on the direction of financial development. The national financial work video conference requires ten key tasks to be done well in 2022. It is proposed to moderately advance infrastructure investment. We believe that the key direction of fiscal policy at the beginning of next year is to focus on infrastructure (especially new infrastructure), green and low-carbon, agriculture (food security and seed industry, etc.).
4. Haitong strategy: optimistic about the market in the first quarter
① Policy: the signal of “steady growth” is clear, and the follow-up policy is expected to be strengthened.
② Fundamentals: it is estimated that the GDP in 22 years will be 5% ~ 5.5% year-on-year, and the roe peak of A-Shares will be 22q1.
③ Liquidity: the long-term trend of asset allocation transferring to equity remains unchanged, and the supply and demand of funds in the stock market is unbalanced in 22 years.
④ Fed interest rate hike: it is possible to start from 22q2, when there will be upward pressure on China US bond interest rates.
⑤ Style: 22 year value, slightly dominant market, CSI 300 is stronger than CSI 500.
⑥ Hard technology: the absolute value of profit growth in 22 years is high, but it is lower than that in 21 years. The opportunity for valuation digestion is market adjustment.
⑦ Consumption: the current valuation is medium and high, the performance growth rate has dropped, and the big opportunity still needs to wait.
⑧ Optimistic about the market in the first quarter, the configuration is balanced, such as undervalued financial real estate, high prosperity hard technology, and consumption following the rebound.
5. Minsheng Securities: where the consensus has not been seen
1 Market Review in December 2021: seemingly offensive, but actually defensive
After the central work economic conference, although macro analysts have raised their expectations for steady growth in 2022, this has not been really traded by the market. It can be seen from the market performance in December: yuanuniverse, power grid construction, real estate completion chain, infrastructure and dilemma reversal and some consumer goods with periodic price increases (later decline) are relatively dominant, this reflects the real expectation of the market on the fundamentals. The scenario is that the environment is only understood as the relaxation of liquidity and the correction of early-stage policies. There is doubt about the strength of policies. The starting point lies in the limited new infrastructure . Even consumer goods with price rise expectations will eventually fall due to investors’ concern about the decline of volume. Investors will trade more assets in assets that are bullish on liquidity and avoid macroeconomic weakness or the so-called “scarcity and high prosperity”.
2 if you are willing to follow the consensus of the market, the difficulty of obtaining income is not low
consensus 1 . At present, the market believes that it is only a correction in the direction for the real estate chain, but the market is also willing to believe that the performance of “high-quality companies” on the chain will be moderately repaired. We take may 2021 as the anchor to measure the repair space: the subdivided industries with large rebound space not only need the recovery of completion volume, but also need to straighten out the repair of gross profit margin; Logically, the most logical building and decoration sector (Q3 performance is only damaged by volume) has actually rebounded more than in May. Real estate is a plate with large rebound space, but it is also a “consensus” market worried about insufficient policy strength. consensus 2 . The most determined direction of infrastructure investment is the power and power grid investment sector. In our annual strategy and weekly report, we have made key recommendations based on the structural shortage of power and the poor growth rate of investment on the power grid side; We are still optimistic, but such sectors have reached a consensus in the short term, so we need to pay attention to the risk of overvaluation and transaction congestion. consensus 3 , price increases can be transmitted to consumers, resulting in improved profit margins. Historically, when the growth gap between PPI and CPI converges, the revenue growth of the consumer sector is not low, while the overall growth rate of the consumer sector falls into a negative value in Q3 of 2021. If there is no support of “quantity” in the future, the simple “price increase” will lead to concerns of dampening demand; consensus 4 : broad liquidity, Panasonic’s boom investment or “macro immunization”. Historically, the year-on-year rebound of M2 social finance often leads the trend rebound of social finance for more than 10 months. The purpose of wide currency itself is to cooperate with the policy of wide credit, which has been experienced for 8 months. After experiencing the “lessons” in 2015, it should not be based on the assumption that regulators are still willing to provide liquidity idling to support the significant expansion of valuation. From the perspective of industry, the meta universe plate needs to solve the problem of industrial comparative advantage; The stock price elasticity of the new energy sector in 2021 not only stems from good fundamentals, but actually exceeds the general expectation of the market in 2020; When looking for the industry “beyond expectation” space in 2022, the resource bottleneck in the upstream of the industrial chain has become a “hard constraint” to be considered. consensus 5 : the market of small cap growth. We also valued the opportunities of Small Cap Growth Based on the environment under the supply shock of the United States in the 1970s, but what needs to be solved is that the valuation and price of its constituent stocks are not as cheap as the small cap growth index. It is difficult to mine individual stocks, and it also needs industrial logic clues to guide investment.
Options beyond 3 consensus: dividend, cycle and Rural Revitalization.
if investors believe that the expected return on opportunities under the consensus is not high, or the risk return ratio is poor, there are actually more options. first, from the perspective of ppi-cpi concerned by the market, within the range where the scissors difference is still positive, the middle and upper reaches are still profit advantage plates; From the perspective of large categories of assets, since the market consensus also recognizes that the possibility of a significant economic downturn is reduced, the probability of capital gains from the allocation of 10-year Treasury bonds and potential capital losses from the allocation of dividend assets are decreasing, and the difference between the dividend yield of dividend assets and the yield of treasury bonds is at the highest level in two years. Second, lay out the next scenario of credit expansion and prepare for “Pro cyclical” . Third, the market believes that the rebound of consumption is often based on the rebound of demand, common prosperity and social zero. However, we find that the performance of core consumer stocks since 2016 is not accompanied by the strength of social zero. On the contrary, it is the rise of gross profit margin caused by the expansion of income differentiation (the median disposable income is weaker than the whole). Under the logic of common prosperity, the structure of consumption opportunities may change, Pay attention to sinking market and county consumption. The real opportunities for consumption may be in the varieties with low gross profit margin ignored in the past. fourth, from a global perspective, 2021 is the only asset with negative cumulative 10-year return at the forefront of growth. Be vigilant that 2021 is only the beginning of trend reversal. The recent regional commodity export ban and shutdown overseas are in contrast to China’s perceived lifting of supply constraints.
4 investment suggestions
We suggest that investors pay more attention to areas where consensus has not been formed and changes have not taken place, and the actual opportunity cost is not high. Current recommendations: coal, crude oil chain (oil service, oil transportation), real estate, nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum), banks and steel. The theme recommends Rural Revitalization (county consumption, etc.). Our main line remains unchanged throughout the year.
6. Investment promotion strategy: performance oriented, attack first and then defend
7, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : Spring agitation, seize the “double carbon new cycle” and business expectation
Since the past 15 years, during the turbulent spring period, the performance of the industry with continuous improvement in the medium-term prosperity expectation has been significantly dominant. Allocation suggestions: A-Shares are “restless in spring” to seize the “double carbon new cycle” and economic changes. At present, s
