The central economic work conference requires that in 2022, stability should take the lead, progress should be made while stability is stable, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced. However, the capital market is still worried about the countercyclical adjustment of macro policies, the disposal of real estate risks and the progress of consumption recovery. On January 3, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) released ten prospects for steady growth policy in 2022.
outlook 1: the interest rate will be reduced at least once in the first half of 2022, and the MLF and LPR interest rates will be reduced at the same time.
Policy efforts, currency first. The first half of 2022 will be the window period for interest rate reduction. It is expected that the short, medium and long-term financing interest rates will be reduced. The 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate, 1-year MLF interest rate, 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rate will be reduced by 5 BP at the same time, to 2.15% / 2.90% / 3.75% / 4.60% respectively, effectively reducing the financing cost of the real economy.
In addition, the recent appreciation of RMB supported by strong export and other factors has provided a moderately loose space for China's monetary policy. In the environment of China's broad currency and the Fed's interest rate increase, the RMB may depreciate in 2022, but the range is limited. It is expected that the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB will operate in the range of 6.3-6.5 in the first half of the year and fluctuate in the range of 6.5-6.6 in the second half of the year.
outlook 2: the growth rate of social finance will stabilize and recover in the first half of 2022, and the peak in the middle of the year is expected to reach 11%.
The financial system strives to stabilize credit. The central bank has strengthened its guidance on the bank credit window. It is expected that the new credit in January 2022 will exceed 4 trillion yuan, which is expected to reach 4.5 trillion yuan. The new credit in 2022 will be 22 trillion yuan, an increase of 2 trillion yuan year-on-year.
The real estate chain has basically crossed the financial bottom. At present, the financing of residential mortgage and real estate enterprises has gradually warmed up. The latest data show that in November 2021, the personal housing loan increased by about 110 billion yuan year-on-year, and the development loan increased by about 90 billion yuan year-on-year. It is expected that the trend of real estate wide credit will continue.
The year-on-year growth rate of social finance in 2022 will be in the range of 10.5% - 11%, and the growth rate in the second and third quarters will be relatively high.
prospect 3: under the background that about 1.4 trillion yuan of financial funds will be carried forward to 2022, financial expenditure will be advanced and strengthened.
The fiscal policy will be more active in 2022. It is suggested to pay less attention to the deficit ratio and the amount of new special debt, and strengthen the attention to the formation of fiscal expenditure and physical workload. It is estimated that the financial funds carried forward to 2022 will be about 1.4 trillion yuan: on the one hand, the general public revenue may exceed the budget by about 700 billion yuan; On the other hand, the total scale and remaining amount of newly issued special bonds in November and December 2021 are about 700 billion yuan, which is basically not invested in the project in the current year and will be carried forward to 2022.
It is estimated that the amount of new special bonds in 2022 will be the same as that of the previous year, still 3.65 trillion yuan; Together with the carry over amount, the actual available special debt funds reached 4.35 trillion yuan. In addition, the government will further expand the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction, which is expected to exceed 1 trillion yuan. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) full of confidence in improving the quality and efficiency of fiscal policies, it is expected that the intensity of public financial expenditure will be further improved, the amount of special bonds will be issued in advance and relatively abundant, and more physical workload will be formed in 2022.
outlook 4: the infrastructure construction is moderately advanced, and the project implementation is paid close attention. The annual infrastructure investment growth rate is expected to be 6.5%.
It is expected that the government will speed up the establishment of reserve projects and promote extensive financing to pay close attention to the implementation of infrastructure projects: on the one hand, all localities will strengthen reserve projects and speed up the examination and approval of investment projects, especially where the reform of investment project commitment system is implemented. It is expected that the examination and approval time from establishment to commencement will be reduced by more than 50%. On the other hand, the government continues to actively innovate the investment and financing model and leverage the participation of social capital, including promoting infrastructure REITs and promoting green PPP.
According to the comprehensive prediction, the infrastructure investment may achieve a medium to high growth rate of 6.5% in 2022, which is moderately higher than the economic growth, so as to effectively play a traction role. Among the infrastructure investment of about 20 trillion yuan in 2022, the proportion of new infrastructure investment is expected to increase from about 10% to 15%, and the investment scale in new energy, pollution reduction, carbon reduction, green building, urban and rural pipe network, parking lot and other fields will also increase significantly.
prospect 5: the real estate policy will "implement policies according to the city" to better meet the demand for reasonable house purchase. The inflection point of real estate development investment growth in 2022 may appear in the middle of the year, realizing positive growth throughout the year, and the growth rate is expected to be 2.8%.
"Trust without action" to prevent risks and "implement policies for the city" to stabilize demand. In the future, we will further implement local main responsibilities, strengthen the coordination of regulatory policies such as finance, land and market supervision, ensure the demand for rigid housing and meet the reasonable demand for improved housing. The growth rate of real estate sales is expected to reach an inflection point in the first quarter of 2022. According to statistics, the inflection point of commercial housing sales is generally about half a year ahead of the inflection point of land auction and construction. On the premise that the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises are supported, the turning point of Jian'an investment is expected to appear in the middle of the year.
In addition to the commercial housing market, China has also established a housing security system dominated by public rental housing, indemnificatory rental housing and housing with common property rights. We estimate that during the "14th five year plan" period, there will be about 8-9 million new affordable housing units, a new construction area of about 400-450 million square meters, and a corresponding investment of about 1.6-1.8 trillion yuan. Under the policy guidance of simultaneous rent and purchase and the pre effect of project construction, it is expected to build 2-2.5 million affordable housing units in 2022, with a corresponding investment scale of about 400-500 billion yuan.
It is expected that the growth rate of investment in real estate development will show a trend of low before high. The annual investment growth rate is expected to be 2.8%, of which the growth rate of land purchase fee is - 8% and the growth rate of construction and installation investment is 8.5%.
outlook 6: continue to tap the potential of bulk consumption. It is expected that the recovery momentum of consumption will continue, and wine travel, cars and household appliances are the highlights of improvement. It is expected that the annual social zero growth rate will be 5.4% and the CPI will be 2.8%.
Measures to promote consumption will continue to work, focusing on stabilizing bulk consumption. The measures to improve the quality and capacity of county and township consumption such as going to the countryside for automobiles, household appliances and furniture and exchanging old for new will be fully implemented, and a few regions with financial conditions will be more actively implemented. In addition, by the end of 2020, the housing provident fund had accumulated 19.6 trillion yuan and withdrawn 12.3 trillion yuan, with a cumulative withdrawal rate of less than 65%. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is expected that the use scope of provident fund will be further expanded, which can be used for traditional bulk consumption such as automobiles and household appliances, as well as emerging service consumption such as education and medical treatment.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the constraints such as the interference of the epidemic, pressure on employment and rising costs will improve. Consumption will recover moderately in 2022, and the social zero growth rate is expected to be 5.4%. It is expected that the growth rate of CPI is low before and high after, which is 1.6% / 2.3% / 3.9% / 3.4% in the four quarters and 2.8% in the whole year.
The highlights of consumption improvement include: first, the service sectors most affected by the epidemic, such as hotels, catering, duty-free, scenic spots, airlines and airports, are expected to accelerate the recovery of consumption order; Second, considering the alleviation of the core shortage problem in the industry and the arrival of the scrapping and replacement cycle of passenger cars, it is expected that the sales volume of cars will exceed 28 million in 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 9%, of which the sales volume of new energy passenger cars will reach 4.8 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of nearly 40%; Third, benefiting from raw materials and exchange rate factors, it is expected that with the stabilization of real estate, household appliance consumption will also usher in the improvement of domestic and foreign demand; Fourth, beer, condiments, quick-frozen products, daily chemicals, etc. have the growth caused by the decline of raw material prices and the transfer of price increases under the low base effect.
outlook 7: foreign trade policy is stable and strong. In 2022, the export growth rate is close to 30%, and it is still expected to achieve a rapid growth of 9%.
It is expected that relevant policies will pay more attention to stabilizing the main body of foreign trade and enhancing the toughness of the industrial chain.
First, it is expected to increase the development of new foreign trade formats such as cross-border e-commerce, strengthen the supporting of international industrial chain, accelerate the speed of export tax rebate, and promote foreign trade enterprises to transform the new "alternative short-term orders" during the epidemic into more viscous and competitive "long-term agreements". Second, RCEP will come into force in 2022, and nearly one-third of the world's economy is expected to form a unified super large-scale market to fully hedge the downward pressure on foreign demand caused by the decline of financial subsidies in the United States and Europe. Third, guide foreign trade enterprises to sign long-term agreements with shipping enterprises, strengthen the infrastructure construction of "overseas warehouse" and eliminate the adverse impact of "lack of cabinets and warehouse".
In the first three quarters of 2021, China's exports accounted for 19% of GDP. It is expected that China's exports will achieve a high growth rate of about 9% in 2022, and the proportion of exports to GDP may exceed 20%, which will continue to strongly drive economic growth.
outlook 8: it is expected that in the first half of 2022, another 300 billion yuan of small refinancing line will be added, and the growth rate of the society below the annual limit will be zero or restored to 5% - 6%.
It is estimated that the new 300 billion yuan of small refinancing line in September 2021 has been used up by the end of the year, and another 300 billion yuan may be added in the first half of 2022; In addition, policies such as inclusive small and micro loan support tools, tax reduction and fee reduction, tax deferment, local consumption vouchers and easing labor tension will also continue.
Epidemic prevention and control will be more scientific and accurate, and the offline service industry is expected to continue to recover. It is estimated that in 2022, the growth rate of social security below the limit may recover to 5% - 6%, and the scale will increase to about 29 trillion yuan, while the average growth rate in the past two years is only 2.9%.
The relief of small and micro enterprises is conducive to employment stability. It is expected that the urban survey unemployment rate will be about 5% in 2022, the same as that in 2021.
outlook 9: rebalance structural reform, protect the spirit of innovation and avoid "sports carbon reduction". It is estimated that the annual growth rate of manufacturing investment is about 6.8%, the growth rate of high-tech manufacturing investment is more than 17%, and the growth rate of PPI is about 0.5%
In 2022, structural reform will be promoted more accurately, orderly and systematically, which will contribute to steady economic growth.
Antitrust and preventing disorderly expansion of capital have achieved initial results, and more attention will be paid to protecting entrepreneurship. The industrial policy of supporting "specialized and new" enterprises will continue to increase. It is estimated that the growth rate of manufacturing investment in 2022 will be about 6.8%, of which the growth rate of high-tech manufacturing investment will be more than 17%.
The achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutralization cannot be accomplished in one service. It is expected that the policy will be based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, the new renewable energy and raw material energy will not be included in the total energy consumption control, realize the transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emission, and ensure the production order. It is expected that PPI will decline quarter by quarter in 2022, 6.5% / 0.5% / - 1.9% / - 3.3% in four quarters and 0.5% in the whole year.
outlook 10: GDP is expected to grow by about 5.5% in 2022. For the A-share market, there are many opportunities in the first half of the year. It is suggested to focus on the rise of high-quality blue chips; In the second half of the year, the market was relatively flat. For the bond market, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 2.8% - 3.4%.
Under the package of steady growth policies, it is expected that China's supply and demand adaptation will further improve in 2022, and the economy is expected to return to the potential growth level and achieve a growth of about 5.5%. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of infrastructure is expected to rise, hedging the drag caused by the low growth rate of real estate investment; In the second half of the year, consumption will return to the level close to that before the epidemic, becoming an important driving force for economic growth; The high-tech manufacturing industry is expected to maintain a high boom throughout the year. Taking into account the factors such as moderate advance force of finance, flexible and moderate monetary policy and good endogenous economic momentum, it is expected that the economic growth rate in the first three quarters of 2022 is expected to increase quarter by quarter, and the growth rate in the third quarter may reach 5.9%, meeting the victory of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China with excellent results.
The A-share market is expected to have more opportunities in the first half of the year and relatively flat in the second half of the year. In terms of style, blue chip is the main investment line throughout the year. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on midstream manufacturing and consumption in the first half of the year; Focus on opportunities in the consumer and technology sectors in the second half of the year.
The interest rate bond market is expected to show an "n" trend throughout the year, and the yield to maturity of 10-year Treasury bonds fluctuates widely in the range of 2.8% - 3.4%. It is suggested to seize the opportunity of downward interest rate in the switch between anti inflation and stable growth.
(Securities Daily)
