The Shanghai stock index rose 0.6% last week. How will A-Shares run this week? We have summarized the latest investment strategies of major institutions for investors’ reference.
CITIC strategy: blue chip diffusion promotes the “good start” market, and it is the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year
The policy synergy is gradually formed. It is expected that the economic stabilization and the recovery of the credit cycle will be verified in January. After the new year, the accelerated influx of incremental funds and the active increase of stock funds are expected to open the “good start” market. After the preview of the blue chip market in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected to spread, and the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year. First of all, the policies in the first quarter are expected to move from relay to joint force. There is sufficient policy guarantee for stabilizing the economy and market. It is expected that the economic bottom recovery trend in the fourth quarter will be verified in January. At the same time, the recovery of the credit cycle will also improve the market’s expectations for the future economy. Secondly, it is expected that the “good start” of fund issuance will drive the influx of incremental funds, the game behavior of stock funds will decline and actively increase positions after the next year, and the market began to form a consensus on the market at the beginning of the year. Finally, under the loose policy and mild macro and market environment, the best participation time point in the first quarter or the whole year, the incremental capital structure style may be more diversified. It is expected that the blue chip market will gradually spread in the dimension of industry and style. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to continue to actively participate in the “good start” market around the “three lows”.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : where is the attack point in spring?
Looking forward to 2022: under the background of falling profit end and loose restraint at denominator end, the A-share market will still maintain a range shock with a top and a bottom. The overall operation rhythm of the market will be consistent with the general tone of “taking multiple measures to promote the smooth operation of the market and resolutely prevent big ups and downs and urgent ups and downs” of the CSRC. Further focus on this round of cross year offensive: the bank also believes that this round of agitation will be more moderate in rhythm. On the one hand, the periodic drive at the denominator end is weakening. At present, the market has fully expected a wide currency rhythm in the first half of 2022. On the other hand, the molecular side still needs to be further verified. The marginal drive brought by the steady growth policy will be verified successively through economic / financial data, which will be the main driver to consolidate this round of cross year market. On the whole, this round of cross year offensive is progressing smoothly in rhythm, and it is more necessary to play steadily in adjusting the structure.
GF strategy: Restless in spring, seize the “double carbon new cycle” and prosperity expectation
“Spring agitation”, it is suggested to continue to focus on the industrial / policy clues under the “double carbon new cycle” and the industrial medium-term prosperity expectation under the guidance of the “high-frequency expected prosperity observation model”. Second, pay attention to the 14 sub areas of “double carbon new cycle” under “first establishment” and “later breaking”! Based on the current macro guidance of energy development and carbon emission structure adjustment, we should pay attention to the two investment main lines of “building first” and “breaking later” under the “double carbon” cycle, with a total of 14 sub areas – (1) the investment main line of “building first” is carried out along power generation (photovoltaic, wind power and nuclear power), transmission (UHV), power storage (energy storage) and new energy vehicles (Power Battery + whole vehicle + charging pile); (2) The main line of “post breaking” investment is carried out along the traditional high emission fields and energy-saving and environmental protection industries, such as industry (special steel and electrolytic aluminum) + building (prefabricated building) + railway transportation + coal (coal chemical industry) + pollution and solid waste treatment, etc.
Haitong strategy: can hard technology continue to lead the rise? Are consumer stocks worth allocating?
① Policy: the signal of “steady growth” is clear, and the follow-up policy is expected to be strengthened. ② Fundamentals: it is estimated that the GDP in 22 years will be 5% ~ 5.5% year-on-year, and the roe peak of A-Shares will be 22q1. ③ Liquidity: the long-term trend of asset allocation transferring to equity remains unchanged, and the supply and demand of funds in the stock market is unbalanced in 22 years. ④ Fed interest rate hike: it is possible to start from 22q2, when there will be upward pressure on China US bond interest rates. ⑤ Style: 22 year value, slightly dominant market, CSI 300 is stronger than CSI 500. ⑥ Hard technology: the absolute value of profit growth in 22 years is high, but it is lower than that in 21 years. The opportunity for valuation digestion is market adjustment. ⑦ Consumption: the current valuation is medium and high, the performance growth rate has dropped, and the big opportunity still needs to wait. ⑧ Optimistic about the market in the first quarter, the configuration is balanced, such as undervalued financial real estate, high prosperity hard technology, and consumption following the rebound.
Guangdong Development Strategy: the 14th five year plan in the field of science and technology is intensively released, and A-Shares are expected to make a good start
On December 28, 2021, the “14th five year plan” Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) Industrial Development Plan “was released, which proposed that by 2025, China would form a number of leading enterprises with international competitiveness and a large number of specialized and new” small giants “with strong innovation ability and good growth; on the same day, the” 14th five year plan “for the development of medical equipment industry proposed a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform, In the future, leading enterprises in the medical device industry and “small and beautiful” enterprises with competitive advantages in the subdivision track are expected to continue to benefit under the support of policies; On December 29, the “14th five year plan” for the development of raw material industry was released, which clearly put forward that the high-end supply level should be continuously improved. Among them, the rare earth industry has been repeatedly mentioned, and the concentration and R & D investment of the rare earth industry may continue to increase in the future. In addition, the electrolytic aluminum industry, large aircraft Key material industry chains in key application fields such as aeroengines are expected to continue to benefit.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) strategy: three lines can be grasped for a period of time
The recent A-share adjustment, the differentiation of long-term and short-term interest rates and the narrowing of term interest rate spread more reflect the expectation of economic recession and concerns about the effect of credit easing policy. In this context, looking forward to the market situation in January this year, we believe that the A-share market is expected to pick up, the overall performance should be stronger than that in December last year, and the opportunity at the beginning of the year should be grasped. The main reason for the market recovery in January is that the risk appetite and liquidity at the beginning of the year will be improved. However, for the duration and height of the market this spring, we believe that we should have reasonable expectations. If there is a large rise, we should consider cashing it in time. This is because compared with the beginning of 2021, both economic expectations and incremental funds are lower than last year. From the perspective of economic expectations, investors had recovery expectations for the economy at the beginning of last year, while the current economic data showed weak performance, and both supply and demand showed a downturn. From the perspective of incremental funds, the issuance of new funds reached nearly 500 billion in January last year, and the issuance scale of new funds this year is difficult to compare with that at the beginning of last year. Therefore, in the spring market over the years, we believe that this year’s spring market should be weak. On the other hand, the strength of the steady growth policy remains to be seen. The release of financial data after the spring festival may be an important time point.
Guosheng strategy: small ticket represents the past or the future?
On the style of large and small plates, after combining the historical experience at home and abroad, we can generally draw several conclusions: (1) the strength of prosperity is the fundamental variable that determines the style of large and small plates. In the final analysis, enterprise value is determined by performance growth. Behind the strength of the trend of large and small markets in the past, it is the result of the action of fundamental trends. From the experience of US stocks, this conclusion is also true. The relative trend of EPS determines the interpretation of the style of large and small US stocks. （2） The allocation cost performance of the large market is an important variable affecting the excess return of the small market. Especially in the valuation cycle of large cap stocks, the excess return of small cap stocks is particularly obvious (except for 18 years). The continuous killing of core assets since 2021 is also an important reason for the small cap to win. （3） The type of incremental funds also determines the strength of large and small markets to some extent. Since 2021, the capital game pattern has changed from “lying win” to “inside roll”, and the demand for small ticket mining has been significantly enhanced, which has directly driven the sinking of market value style since 2021.
Xingzheng strategy: the index market focuses on three directions on the way
With the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and marginal “wide credit” windows, the negative factors gradually subside, and the index market is still on the way. Focus on three directions. Since November 2021, the cross year market has picked up its level in turbulence. When the market fluctuated sharply on November 10, we took the lead in judging that “the cross year market is about to start” and “cherish the long window at the end of the year” and recommended the undervalued sectors represented by real estate and infrastructure at the bottom. Since then, the cross-year market has opened slowly, and the Shanghai composite index once exceeded 3700. Although the market has been bumpy recently, with the continuous cashing and strengthening of the “wide currency” and “wide credit” windows, the negative factors have gradually subsided, and the index market is still on the way. Investment strategy: in the short term, on the one hand, grasp the phased opportunities for the repair of undervalued state-owned real estate enterprises and securities companies, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long-term fighting short and bargain hunting. For a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
