key investment points
I. overseas market: the market is gradually desensitized from the concern of the mutant strain Omicron. the fifth wave of global epidemic spread more rapidly and affected a wider range than previous times. The number of confirmed cases in Europe and the United States increased sharply, and the peak of this round of epidemic in the United States, France, Britain and Italy was much higher than before. Although the epidemic is still spreading rapidly, the market is gradually desensitized from the concern of the mutant strain Omicron, and the crude oil price rebounded after the previous sharp decline in December. In terms of foreign exchange, the RMB exchange rate remained resilient, and foreign capital continued to flow into the A-share market. In December, BEIXIANG capital net bought 88.99 billion yuan of a shares, and in 2021, the net purchase was 432.17 billion yuan. The net purchase in that month and in the year reached a record high.
second, the "steady growth" policy was actively promoted, and the approaching of the "two sessions" boosted risk appetite. taking history as a mirror, under the catalysis of many factors, A-Shares often interpreted the structural market of "sending red envelopes" in the first quarter. In the spring of 2022, the market is still expected to perform, with steady growth configuration as the main melody. 1) From January to early March, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held one after another, and favorable policies will promote the expectation of steady growth and industrial reform; 2) The steady growth policy is expected to continue to be actively promoted, and traditional infrastructure will focus on development; 3) The real estate policy seeks "stability", and the central bank encourages real estate enterprises to merge and acquire, defuse industrial risks and realize liquidation; 4) High end manufacturing, hard technology and new energy industry chain are still the key support directions.
III. The issuance of public funds ushered in a small peak at the end of the year, and the trend of resident funds entering the market remained unchanged. at the end of 2021, the issuance of public funds ushered in a small peak. In December 2021, the scale of all newly established public funds reached 303.7 billion, the highest since January this year, higher than the average since 2019 (208.7 billion). Among them, equity + hybrid funds accounted for 41%, and the shares issued in December reached 123.7 billion, close to the average since 2019 (126.2 billion). The entry of residents' assets into the market through the fund is still a medium and long-term trend.
in April and January, A-share investment suggestions: "steady growth" became the main theme, and the track differentiation and rebalancing. at the beginning of the year, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held successively. Under the triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply impact and weakening expectation", the "steady growth" policy will be actively promoted. Traditional infrastructure, real estate and new infrastructure (new energy, high-end manufacturing and hard technology) are the three main focuses: the Ministry of Finance issued the new special debt limit in 2022 in advance, and infrastructure investment was carried out moderately in advance; The real estate policy seeks "stability", because the city implements policies + encourages real estate enterprises to merge and resolve industry risks; Structural adjustment and progress, new energy, hard science and technology are the key support directions. In January, due to the spread of sporadic epidemic in China (some regions or local Chinese New Year celebrations) and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the A-share industry may show differentiation, and the rapid rotation of plates has become the main feature. in January, the market is well balanced. Three configuration mainlines:
1) "Traditional infrastructure + real estate" under the background of "steady growth", such as: building materials and real estate ;
2) The main investment line of "high-end manufacturing & hard technology": new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics ;
3) Strong themes that benefit from policy (support), such as yuanuniverse (media), traditional Chinese medicine , etc.
■ risk tips: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; Overseas Black Swan incident, etc.
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01 overseas market: the market is gradually desensitized from the concern of the mutant strain Omicron
In December, the global stock index generally rose, while the Russian RTs and hang seng index fell. The Dow Jones industrial index, S & P 500 and Nasdaq rose by + 5.38%, + 4.36% and + 0.69% respectively in the same month. The performance of large technology stocks in U.S. stocks was weak, and the volatility of NASDAQ index increased; European stock markets performed well. The French CAC40, German DAX and British FTSE 100 index rose by + 6.43%, + 5.20% and + 4.61% respectively in the same month; In China's stock market, the Shanghai index performed better than the Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index, and the Hang Seng Index closed at a new low this year.
The fifth wave of global epidemic spread more rapidly and affected a wider range than previous times. According to the statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of January 2, 2022, there were more than 400000 new confirmed cases (7-day average) in the United States; There has been a surge in confirmed cases in many countries in Europe, and the peak of this round of epidemic in France, Britain and Italy is much higher than before. Although the epidemic is still spreading rapidly, the market is gradually desensitized from the concern of the mutant strain Omicron. Crude oil prices rebounded after a sharp decline in the early stage in December. The increases of NYMEX light crude oil and ice oil distribution in the current month were + 14.01% and + 10.44% respectively.
In terms of foreign exchange, the US dollar index rose slightly in December, the RMB exchange rate remained resilient, and the US dollar continued to appreciate against the RMB (CFETS). Supported by the strong exchange rate, foreign capital continued to flow into the A-share market. In December, the net purchase of northbound funds through the land stock channel reached 88.99 billion yuan, and the net purchase in 2021 was 432.17 billion yuan. Both the net purchase in the current month and the net purchase in the year reached a record high.
02 the "steady growth" policy was actively promoted, and the "two sessions" were approaching to boost risk appetite
Taking history as a mirror, the market characteristics of "spring agitation" of A-Shares are obvious. In the first quarter, A-Shares often deduce the structural market of "sending red envelopes". We define the time period of "spring agitation" as the first quarter of each year. Since 2010, A-Shares have shown a structural market in the first quarter, with a probability of 83.33% (except for the general decline of A-Shares in 2016 and 2021). In addition, A-Shares have shown a structural market in January every year since 2010, with a probability of 75%.
"spring agitation" market has many catalytic factors:
1) The market has abundant liquidity, and the first quarter of the calendar year is the peak of credit supply;
2) In the first quarter, China's policy of "steady growth" was in a warm period;
3) From the perspective of ministries and commissions, at the beginning of the year, most ministries and commissions will successively release the work plans for the new year, including the release of design blueprints led by departments; From the perspective of enterprises, some industry leading enterprises will successively release one-year investment or product plans during this period;
4) During this period, with the approaching and convening of the "two sessions", a new round of reform expectations were aroused. Whether the local "two sessions" or the central "two sessions", the new reform direction and the industrial direction dominated by the policy will be mentioned during the first quarter.
the spring Market in 2022 is still expected to perform, and steady growth is configured as the main melody:
1) From January to early March, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held one after another, and favorable policies will promote the expectation of steady growth and industrial reform;
2) The steady growth policy is expected to continue to be actively promoted, and traditional infrastructure will focus on. The national financial work video conference held on December 27 required to strengthen support for market players and strengthen policy implementation in 2022. We should give full play to the role of Finance in stabilizing investment and promoting consumption, manage and make good use of special bond funds, and stimulate effective investment. We will appropriately advance infrastructure investment and give play to the guiding and driving role of government investment. At the regular policy briefing of the State Council on December 16, the Ministry of Finance revealed that it had recently issued a new special debt limit of 1.46 trillion yuan in advance to all localities in 2022, promoting the issuance and use of the limit in the first quarter of 2022. In terms of project investment, the special bonds in 2022 are mainly used in nine major directions: first, transportation infrastructure, second, energy, third, agriculture, forestry and water conservancy, fourth, ecological environmental protection, fifth, social undertakings, sixth, logistics infrastructure such as urban and rural cold chain, seventh, municipal and Industrial Park infrastructure, eighth, major national strategic projects, and ninth, indemnificatory housing projects. From the perspective of volume, it is expected that the infrastructure projects will make some efforts in the construction of transportation infrastructure, municipal and industrial park infrastructure, and power infrastructure related to new energy and clean coal power generation;
3) The real estate policy seeks "stability", and the central bank encourages real estate enterprises to acquire, which is conducive to resolving industry risks. In December, the central economic work conference continued to adhere to the positioning of housing, housing and non speculation, and added "support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry due to urban policies." In addition, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice to encourage banking financial institutions to provide financial support and services for mergers and acquisitions of key real estate enterprise risk disposal projects. Zou LAN, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said that project M & A among real estate enterprises is the most effective market-oriented means for the real estate industry to resolve risks and realize clearing;
4) Structural adjustment and progress, high-end manufacturing, hard technology and new energy industry chain are still the key support directions. In November, the people's Bank of China officially launched carbon emission reduction support tools and special refinancing to support clean and efficient utilization of coal. At present, the two tools have been successfully implemented. The central bank issued 85.5 billion yuan of the first batch of carbon emission reduction support tools to relevant financial institutions. It has issued 142.5 billion yuan of qualified carbon emission reduction loans to 2817 enterprises, driving the reduction of carbon emissions by about 28.76 million tons.
At the end of 03 the issuance of public funds ushered in a small peak, and the trend of resident funds entering the market remained unchanged
at the end of 2021, the issuance of public funds ushered in a small peak. in December 2021, the scale of all newly established public funds reached 303.7 billion, the highest since January this year, higher than the average since 2019 (208.7 billion). Among them, equity + hybrid funds accounted for 41%, and the shares issued in December reached 123.7 billion, close to the average since 2019 (126.2 billion). The entry of residents' assets into the market through the fund is still a medium and long-term trend.
04 investment strategy: "steady growth" has become the main theme, track differentiation and rebalancing
At the beginning of the year, the local two sessions and the central two sessions will be held one after another. Under the triple pressure of "shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation", the "steady growth" policy will be actively promoted. Traditional infrastructure, real estate and new infrastructure (new energy, high-end manufacturing and hard technology) are the three main focuses: the Ministry of Finance issued the new special debt limit in 2022 in advance, and infrastructure investment was carried out moderately in advance; The real estate policy seeks "stability", because the city implements policies + encourages real estate enterprises to merge and resolve industry risks; Structural adjustment and progress, new energy, hard science and technology are the key support directions. In January, due to the spread of sporadic epidemic in China (some regions or local Chinese New Year celebrations) and the disturbance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the A-share industry may show differentiation, and the rapid rotation of plates has become the main feature.
In January, the market is well balanced. Three main lines of allocation: 1. "Traditional infrastructure + real estate" under the background of "steady growth", such as building materials and real estate; 2) The main investment lines of "high-end manufacturing & hard technology": new energy (vehicle), military industry, electronics, etc; 3) Strong themes that benefit from the promotion of policies (support), such as meta universe (media), traditional Chinese medicine, etc.
05 risk prompt
Repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; Overseas Black Swan incident, etc.
(strategy Li Lifeng and industry configuration notes)
