The arms race among chip manufacturers is becoming fierce.
On December 28, TSMC decided to build a 100 hectare factory in the Zhongke Park in Taichung, with a total investment of NT $8000-1 trillion (about RMB 184-230 billion). This investment includes the plant of 2nm process in the future, and the plant of 1nm process will also be located in Zhongke park.
Besides TSMC, chip manufacturers Intel and Samsung are also expanding fiercely. Samsung announced in November that it would invest US $17 billion to build a plant in Taylor, Texas. In early December, it announced the largest structural adjustment in recent years, tilting resources to the semiconductor business. Intel, which has lagged behind in recent years, returned to the card table after turmoil, negotiated with Italy and is expected to invest 8 billion euros to build a semiconductor packaging plant.
The semiconductor industry has been warming up in recent years. The lack of core caused by the epidemic has added a fire, and the smell of gunpowder among the three major factories has become more intense. TSMC ranked first with a market share of more than 50% and temporarily took the lead in advanced manufacturing processes. Samsung and Intel have undergone major adjustments this year, and will focus on the chip field next. When the epidemic brings a rare overtaking opportunity, this round of expansion is actually just the beginning.
In process volume
If it weren’t for the epidemic, the head players didn’t seem to expect that the demand for chips would be so strong.
Before the epidemic, the smartphone industry had stabilized, the Internet of things and cars were slowly climbing, and their competitive focus was on process innovation.
For a long time, Intel’s 14nm represents the most advanced process. In 2015, Intel announced that the doubling speed of transistors was extended from 24 months to 36 months, and Moore’s law seems to have reached the limit.
In April 2018, TSMC shocked the industry. When Intel’s 10nm process chip was difficult to produce, TSMC was the first to successfully mass produce the 7Nm process chip of EUV process, and received orders from Hisilicon 985 and apple A13.
The competitive atmosphere is suddenly fierce. In October of the same year, Samsung also announced the mass production of 7Nm EUV process. Samsung’s action at that time was actually hasty. In 2019, the technology media DIGITIMES exposed the news that the yield of Samsung’s 7Nm process chips was not high, which even affected the supply of Qualcomm 5g products. Although Samsung quickly refuted, it did not come up with specific yield information.
TSMC did not seem to have received too much yield trouble, but also accelerated the process update speed. After 7Nm mass production, TSMC began trial production of 5nm process chips in 2019 and will be used on iphone12 in 2020. In the first quarter of this year, 5nm mobile phones have just begun to occupy the market, and TSMC has begun to promote the research and development of 4nm and 3nm processes. In September this year, the A15 of the iPhone 13 used the second generation 5nm process of TSMC, and the iPhone 14 next year is likely to use a 4nm chip.
On June 9, 2021, the 12 inch wafer produced by TSMC was photographed at the world semiconductor conference
TSMC’s upgrade cycle is still shortening. The 4nm process, which was only trial produced in the fourth quarter of this year, was one quarter ahead of schedule. Moreover, they also announced that they would mass produce 3nm process in the fourth quarter of 2022, and mass produce 2nm process chips in 2024.
TSMC’s forward speed is impenetrable, while Samsung is vigorously catching up. The time for 3nm mass production of the two companies is set for 2022.
When TSMC and Samsung compete fiercely, Intel is slower. They stayed in the 14nm process for seven years and did not really mass produce 10nm until 2019, which is equivalent to the number of transistors in the 7Nm process of TSMC.
In 2021, Intel replaced CEO Bob swan, who also became the shortest serving CEO in Intel’s history. The new CEO is VMware CEO pat Gelsinger, who was also the first CTO of Intel.
Since then, Intel has accelerated its speed and will mass produce 7Nm process next year. The number of transistors is even higher than that of TSMC 5nm process products. Intel also put forward an ambitious plan: break through five processes in four years.
At present, the three giants of Intel and Shangji are the key nodes to guide the process of chip manufacturing in 2025, but it is obvious that Samsung and Shangji are also the key nodes to start the process of chip manufacturing in 2025.
World War II in 2025
The demand for chips in 5g, IOT and smart cars was rising, but it was not until the outbreak began that there was a structural shortage.
The core shortage that began in 2020 has continued to this day, and there is still no sign of mitigation. The super cycle of semiconductors has begun,
According to TSMC’s financial report, in 2020, TSMC’s sales reached a new high, reaching NT $1339 trillion (about 309.78 billion yuan), an increase of one quarter over 2019. Samsung’s third quarter earnings report released not long ago showed that their single quarter sales exceeded 70 trillion won for the first time, setting a new historical record.
This means that TSMC and Samsung have more ammunition, horse racing and enclosure.
They also take this opportunity to open the road of expansion. TSMC said at this year’s Q3 briefing that this year’s capital expenditure has increased from $25-28 billion to $30 billion, and they will invest $100 billion in production and manufacturing in the next three years.
In addition to Taiwan, TSMC announced that it would spend 12 billion to build a plant in Arizona, the United States, mainly producing 5nm process chips. These production lines will start mass production in 2024 and can produce 20000 wafers per month. Wei Zhejia, CEO of TSMC, once explained the production expansion plan: “we are ushering in the opportunity of semiconductor structural growth. 5g brings great opportunities. Applications related to high-performance computing will promote the significant growth of computing power and the huge demand for energy-efficient computing, which requires advanced technology.”
In addition to advanced processes, TSMC is also expanding its mature process lines. In November this year, TSMC cooperated with Sony’s subsidiary “Sony semiconductor solutions” to set up a foundry subsidiary in Kumamoto County, Japan. The initial investment was as high as US $7 billion, and Sony invested US $500 million. This plant mainly produces 22nm and 28nm process chips and will be put into operation by the end of 2024.
Outside Japan, TSMC will invest US $2.887 billion to expand the capacity of 28nm process in Nanjing, which can increase the output of 40000 wafers per month. In Europe, TSMC is building factories in contact with Germany.
Their expanded mature process chips are mainly used in automobiles, embedded memory and IOT devices, which is also the most serious shortage field at present. According to Wei Zhe’s family, TSMC’s tight production capacity will continue until 2022.
TSMC is using this time window to stabilize its position and open a greater gap with its rivals. After all, Samsung also plans to mass produce 3nm chips in 2022-2023, and the time of tit for tat is approaching.
It can be expected that after this round of expansion, the chip industry will focus more on several leading manufacturers. In 2025, it may be difficult for new entrants to find a gap.
(36 krypton)
