2021 has passed, and for the shareholders of listed securities companies, the year of sadness and joy is over.
in the past year, the market of securities companies has been extremely divided. Some securities companies have increased by more than 50% during the year, while many securities companies have also experienced a decline of more than 30%, and the gap between head and tail yield has exceeded 100%. These keywords have become the core keywords closely related to the market of securities companies, such as wealth management, stock allotment and fixed growth.
Market analysis believes that the expansion of wealth management business of light capital has led to the revaluation of income securities companies, while the performance of leading securities companies has been ignored to a certain extent due to share allotment. With the continuous development of the industry, leading securities companies are expected to be revalued in the future.
brokerage stocks have two days of ice and fire
On December 31, 2021, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) increased by 2.08%, but this had a limited impact on the annual increase of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) . Since the beginning of last year, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) has increased by 55.77%, becoming the company with the highest increase among securities companies except for secondary new shares Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) .
At the same time, the performance of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) which has been favored by all kinds of investors during the year is also excellent, with an increase of 43.88% year to date.
but Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) are the only “glory” of brokerage stocks this year. Among the remaining brokerage stocks, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) rose the third last year, up 30.04%. Followed by China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , up 15.60%, and Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) ranked fifth, up 5.42%.
For most securities companies, the decline was the theme of last year. The data show that after deducting Caida Securities Co.Ltd(600906) newly listed and Guangdong Golden Dragon Development Inc(000712) , Harbin Hatou Investment Co.Ltd(600864) , Shanghai Chinafortune Co.Ltd(600621) , the average number of securities companies fell by 13.72% as of December 31. Among them, the biggest decline was Boc International (China) Co.Ltd(601696) , with a decline of 51.10% during the year. It is also the only securities firm with a decline of more than 50% during the year. Followed by Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) and China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , with declines of 45.51% and 34.65% respectively. The share prices of Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) and Xiangcai securities fell by more than 30% during the year. In addition, the share prices of 11 securities companies such as China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) fell by more than 20% during the year.
However, in the process of the continuous decline of share prices, many investors bought more and more. As of December 31, the latest scale of brokerage ETF exceeded 23 billion yuan, becoming one of the largest industry theme ETFs in the market. The star private placement of ningquan assets has also continuously increased its holdings of brokerage stocks in the Hong Kong stock market.
wealth management becomes the driver of the rise
wealth management business has become the core driver of the rise of securities companies. From the perspective of rising securities companies, they are unique in the field of wealth management business.
East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) is the most special. As the parent company of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) securities, Tiantian fund, its Internet fund sales platform, is one of the top fund sales platforms. In terms of the data on the sales retention scale of public funds of fund sales institutions in the third quarter previously disclosed by China Foundation Association, Tiantian Fund ranked fourth in the whole market with a stock + mixed public fund retention scale of 484.1 billion yuan, second only to China Merchants Bank, ant, ICBC and other giants.
Similarly, in the third quarter, the holding scale of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) stock + mixed public funds reached 73.6 billion yuan, ranking 19th among various institutions in the whole market and 3rd among securities companies. Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) have also entered the top 30 in the whole market, and the ranking of securities companies in the fund consignment business is far higher than the ranking of comprehensive strength.
If it is further extended to the field of large asset management, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) may be more prominent in the characteristics of wealth management. Taking Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) as an example, the company holds 55% and 23% of the shares of Guangdong Development Fund and Guangdong Development Fund respectively. According to the data of China Foundation Association, as of the end of the third quarter, the management scale of non monetary funds of e fund and Guangdong Development Fund ranked first and second in the industry, with 1047.107 billion yuan and 596.139 billion yuan respectively.
Coincidentally, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) the monthly average scale of non monetary public offering funds wholly controlled by Dongfang securities asset management in the first three quarters reached 236.036 billion yuan, ranking 19th in the public offering industry. Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) is also the largest shareholder of huitianfu, a leader in the fund industry. Xingzheng Global Fund, which is absolutely controlled by China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , also has a good reputation in the industry. In addition, the company is also an important shareholder of South Fund.
by means of equity participation and holding high-quality public funds, these securities companies have seized many opportunities in wealth management business. Coupled with the company’s continuous investment in public fund consignment and other businesses, the wealth management cards of several securities companies are playing better and better. This year, some market participants even use the “base content” of securities companies, That is to judge the investment value of securities companies by the number and quality of equity held by fund companies.
“Under the background of non speculation in housing and housing and reasonable and abundant liquidity, the trend of transferring residents’ asset allocation to equity assets remains unchanged, and wealth management has become a high-quality track with growth and certainty. China’s large-scale fund companies are expected to iron out the impact of stock market fluctuations on earnings and enjoy the performance growth brought by the rapid expansion of management scale. Therefore, lower earnings The growth with strong profit fluctuation and certainty gives fund companies a higher valuation range, and listed securities companies holding a large proportion of equity of leading fund companies are expected to benefit. ” Wei Tao of Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said in his research report.
Xu Yishan, a non bank analyst at the Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Research Institute, also said in an interview with the Chinese reporter of the securities firm that since this year, with the continuous expansion of the public fund business, the market believes that the profit margins of East Money Information Co.Ltd(300059) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) and other cousins benefiting from products and channels will continue to improve. At the same time, the expansion of wealth management business does not depend on the increase of capital, so the market gives more reasonable valuations to relevant companies.
refinancing suppresses leading valuation
listed securities companies started large-scale refinancing in 2020, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) according to statistics, the refinancing scale reached 110.8 billion yuan and 42.3 billion yuan in 2020 and 2021 respectively, and 102.6 billion yuan refinancing scheme is being promoted.
To a certain extent, refinancing such as share allotment suppresses the market of securities companies. Generally, if investors do not participate in the discount share allotment, the market value of their shares will shrink, which is generally not liked by ordinary investors. Some listed companies often encounter downward pressure on short-term share prices when their share allotment plans are announced.
On February 26, the first brother of the securities industry Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) disclosed the share allotment plan, and the proposed share allotment financing was 28 billion yuan. On the first trading day after that, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) shares plunged 8% in intraday trading, and finally ended down 5.98%. The market value of A-Shares alone fell by 17 billion yuan in one day.
At the end of August, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) announced the share allotment plan. It is planned to raise no more than 14 billion yuan for 10 allotment 3. The company’s share price fell by the limit the next day. Over the previous month, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) as the leading target of wealth management transformation, rose by more than 30%. In addition, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and other securities companies announced share allotment plans during the year.
At the same time, institutional investors do not like brokerage stocks that are constantly refinanced. The market is worried that refinancing will dilute roe, which has become an important factor to suppress the valuation of the sector.
“If there are no issues such as allotment, the share price performance of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) should be on a par with that of Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) .” Some investors frankly told Chinese reporters of securities companies.
Xu Yishan also said that since last year, the valuation of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and other securities companies has been suppressed, and the allotment of shares is a very important reason. Institutions are avoiding securities companies that continue to refinance in large amounts. In fact, after the announcement of the Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) share allotment plan, the share price never returned to the position before February 26.
differentiation pattern may adjust
“I think the pattern of stock differentiation of securities companies will continue, but it will change. Both securities companies with wealth management theme and leading securities companies have the opportunity to revalue.” Xu Yishan said.
She believes that the business structure of large securities companies represented by Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) is very balanced. Whether it is wealth management business, OTC derivatives or investment banking, it will expand and benefit with the whole A-share institutionalization process, and the relevant business concentration is also very high. In the future, the performance of head securities companies will be very good and their value will be revalued by the market.
In terms of financial data, leading securities companies do have great advantages. The net operating profit in the third quarter was RMB 1.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of nearly RMB 1.245 billion, {3.06 billion. In the first three quarters, the cumulative net profit of 140 securities companies was only 143.979 billion yuan, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) accounting for more than 12%. In addition, the cumulative net profit of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) in the first three quarters was 11.826 billion yuan and Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) was 8.641 billion yuan. The net profit of head securities companies in the whole industry has been very high.
In terms of specific business, investment banking, public fund product consignment and other business head securities companies are rapidly establishing advantages. From the perspective of fund investment consulting business that the market pays more attention to, the second batch of pilot Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has also risen rapidly. As of December 29, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) fund investment consulting business has been online for only 60 days, the contracted assets have exceeded 7 billion yuan, and the number of contracted customers is close to 90000. In addition, as of December 29, the number of participating customers of Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) “worry free investment” in the first batch of pilot institutions exceeded 700000, and the scale of customer authorized assets exceeded 10 billion yuan. It is the first securities firm in the pilot institutions to sign a contract with an asset scale of more than 10 billion yuan.
“there is no gap between the leading valuation of comprehensive securities companies and the valuation of securities index in A-share securities companies, so I think there will be differentiation in the long run, and the attention of leading companies will gradually increase.” Xu Yishan said.
At the same time, the pressure brought by share allotment will also be relieved. The application for share allotment of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) has been approved by regulators at the end of November. With the gradual completion of refinancing, the capital advantages of relevant enterprises will be gradually reflected.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) analyst Xia Changsheng pointed out in the analysis that the business of securities companies tends to be institutionalized and capitalized, and the capital intermediary business based on institutional transactions has become an important driver for the expansion of securities companies. Since 2019, with the deepening of capital market reform and the improvement of market institutionalization, the capital intermediary business of securities companies has grown rapidly, which has promoted the significant growth of trading assets of head securities companies and become the driving force for asset growth and asset structure differentiation of head securities companies.
“at present, the industry’s refinancing is mainly invested in the capital intermediary business, which has higher roe and stronger performance robustness than the traditional capital heavy business. In the long run, refinancing is ready to improve roe.” Xia Changsheng said.
(brokerage China)
