Pig prices fell again this week, and the deep loss of breeding intensified. According to the news data, the average price of pigs in 22 provinces and cities in China was 12.25 yuan / kg on March 11, down from – 2.62% last week. At the profit level, the average monthly breeding profit of self breeding from November to December of 21 was positive, while it changed from positive to negative in January of 22. After the lunar new year, the overall decline continued, with industry losses of 249 yuan / head and 438 yuan / head in January and February. The profit from outsourcing / Breeding piglets will continue to increase to 194 yuan from August to March, and we expect that the profit from outsourcing / Breeding piglets will continue to increase. In addition, due to the influence of the Russian Ukrainian war, the price of relevant products has accelerated since Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) 2 month, including corn, wheat, soybean and soybean meal. Reflected in the breeding industry chain, the pressure of feed price rise is significant, which drives the overall breeding cost upward. Under the double attack of low pig prices and rising costs, the loss will only be more serious, and the loss will bring greater cash flow consumption and accelerate the de industrialization of production capacity.
From our price tracking indicators, the prices of piglets and sows are in the process of shock and downward exploration. According to the news, on March 11, the prices of piglets and binary sows were 25.57 yuan / kg and 32.74 yuan / kg, with a month on month ratio of – 1.16% and – 0.18%. In terms of weight, Yongyi data showed that the average weight of pigs released in February was about 116.38kg, down from – 2.85% in January, which was lower than the bottom period in October of 21 years. Combined with the pig price, the four are in the process of shock and downward exploration, which is basically in line with our expectations.
From the perspective of investment, we all think it is a high-quality layout opportunity before the second bottom. We reiterate that the layout is now. Secondly, from the perspective of valuation, the average market value of individual breeding stocks is at a relatively low level in history (excluding other businesses, the average market value ranges from 19707262 yuan / head), so we can seize the opportunity. Finally, the investment in pig breeding sector is viewed with periodic thinking and expected thinking, and the layout is right now.
The prices of yellow feather chicken and white feather chicken both rebounded this week. According to the data of xinmu.com, the prices of fast big chicken and medium speed chicken were 6.28 yuan / kg and 6.72 yuan / kg on March 10, with a month on week increase of + 6.62% and + 0.75%. Since November 21, the price of yellow feather chicken has fluctuated upward, the monthly average price has shown a steady upward trend, and the overall price is at a high level. During the Spring Festival, the national average price of yellow feather chicken exceeded 8 yuan, and the price is strong. Since March, the fast chicken has fallen sharply. From the perspective of upstream capacity, we maintain the point of view of 22h2 inflection point and suggest to continue to pay attention to Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) etc. In terms of white feather chickens, on March 10, the prices of white feather broilers and broiler seedlings in the main production areas were 7.81 yuan / kg and 1.11 yuan / feather respectively, up + 6.11% and + 18.09% from last week. It is suggested to pay long-term attention to the extension of the industry to the C-end and the development potential of the food end.
The agricultural sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.28pct. This week’s agriculture was – 3.95%, while the Shanghai composite index was – 4% and the CSI 300 fell 4.22% over the same period. The top three sectors in agriculture are comprehensive agriculture, fishery and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing, with + 1.06%, + 0.74% and – 1.76% respectively. The performance of individual stocks is dominated by pig breeding enterprises.
It is suggested that the pig cycle is the market of the sector, and there is significant room for pig stocks to rise. As for the selection of individual stocks, we are divided into two categories. First, the “small and beautiful” pig enterprises suggest to pay attention to Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc; Second, the “leading” pig enterprises suggest paying attention to Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , etc.
The risk indicates the risk of animal epidemic; The risk of pigs not reaching the expected level.
