With the renewed outbreak of photovoltaic, lithium and other new energy sectors, A-Shares strengthened as a whole on the last trading day of 2021, marking a successful end to the annual trading.
Looking back on 2021, although problems such as corporate profit differentiation and global supply chain tension caused by covid-19 pneumonia still exist, the A-share market has withstood the test.
As of the closing on December 31, 2021, most of the annual lines of the main A-share indexes are red. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3639.78 points, up 4.80% for the whole year; Shenzhen composite index reported 14857.35 points, up 2.67% for the whole year; The gem index reported 3322.67 points, up 12.02% for the whole year; The Kechuang 50 index reported 1398.19 points, up 0.37% for the whole year.
“cow short bear long” is going away
From 2019 to 2021, the annual line of the Shanghai Stock Index gained three consecutive positive, breaking the dust laden 28 year record of the A-share market. You know, the last time the Shanghai index had an annual line of three consecutive positive dates back to 1993.
The A-share market was often criticized as “short bull and long bear”. Open the K-line chart of Shanghai stock index, “bull only three years” seems to be the norm, and each sharp rise is often followed by a sharp fall. The repeated “roller coaster” market has caused poor shareholding experience of investors, and also affected the financing function of the capital market to a certain extent.
There are many reasons for the above phenomenon, and the problem of capital structure is one of the key factors. Looking back on the ending process of the “6124 point” bull market in 2007 and the “5178 point” bull market in 2015, the irrational trading behavior of funds led to the imbalance of market valuation, which was an important reason for the impulsive market of the index.
Fortunately, in recent years, with the continuous improvement of trading mechanisms such as interconnection and the accelerated construction of multi-level capital market system, the A-share market has ushered in sustained and stable incremental funds at the institutional level. The total amount and structure of incremental capital of A-share have changed greatly, which, together with the reform of registration system, has a profound impact on the liquidity environment of A-share market.
Anxin Securities said that the influx of foreign capital, the rapid growth of public and private funds and the transformation of investment philosophy are promoting the structural changes of A-share investors. According to the calculation, from 2015 to 2021, the proportion of the circulating market value of A-Shares held by various institutions increased from 14.8% to 28.2%, an increase of 13.4 percentage points.
Specifically, by 2021, under the background that the issuance rhythm of public funds slowed down in the second half of the year, private funds showed a rapid expansion trend. According to the data of China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association, by the end of November 2021, the number of existing private equity funds had reached 121500, with a management scale of 19.73 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 3.76 trillion yuan over the beginning of the year.
carbon neutralization main line runs through the whole year
The trend of A-share institutionalization drives the overall investment behavior of the market to be more rational, and the market operation quality is improved accordingly. At the same time, under the background that institutional investors gradually dominate, the operation rhythm of A-share market has quietly changed.
Looking back on 2021, although the overall fluctuation of the index was small, the amplitude of major broad-based indexes such as Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 hit a new low for many years. However, the structural characteristics between stocks and plates are very significant. Industry insiders believe that the wonderful market structural opportunities in 2021 are due to the gradual dominance of institutional investors.
“After 2019, the prosperity of different industries is often misplaced. Compared with individual investors, institutions pay more attention to the prosperity trend of industry sectors, which often makes some sectors rise and others fall since 2019. The correlation between industry sectors has dropped significantly, especially in 2021.” Said Zhang Xia, chief strategist of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) .
In the process of plate rotation in 2021, carbon neutralization has become the main line of the market throughout the year, and the related high-end manufacturing directions such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaic are rising rapidly.
Divided by the new Shenwan industry, the power equipment industry increased by 47.86% in 2021, ranking first in the first tier industry. All the top ten stocks in the industry rose in market value. Lithium battery leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) rose 67.6% in the whole year, and the annual increases of Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) exceeded 100%.
Under the background of global green energy transformation and frequent extreme weather, Europe and other places will face rare energy shortage in 2021, resulting in the rise of commodity prices worldwide. Reflected in the A-share market, the non-ferrous metal sector as a whole rose by 40% in 2021, and the coal, basic chemical and iron and steel industries also rose by more than 30%.
2022 may still be a structural market
Looking forward to the A-share market in 2022, institutions generally believe that the structural market is expected to continue. Among them, under the background of the decline of low base factors, the targets of high profit growth will be more scarce. Meanwhile, in 2022, the overall capital level is expected to remain abundant, and the “long money” such as public offering, private placement, foreign capital and insurance capital is expected to continue to form increments.
Zhang Junxiao, chief strategist of Guosheng securities, believes that the road of market institutionalization will go deep in 2022. With the trend of residents entering the city, the main advantage of wealth investment institutions is to strengthen the wealth drainage of residents; The internationalization of the capital market is expected to go further, and the logic of “water flowing to the bottom” of foreign capital remains unchanged; Public offering and private placement will continue to lead the increment, and the proportion of “long money” such as insurance capital and bank financial management subsidiaries is increasing. Overall, the capital level will remain abundant in 2022.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) Liu Chenming’s strategy team believes that “boom” is the “anchor” for the differentiation of A-share market structure in 2021. The capital’s pursuit of medium and short-term profit growth is the leading factor determining the style of the A-share market. The dominant small cap style in 2021 is the resonance between the low base factor and the upward industrial cycle.
Looking at 2022, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that “more scarce high prosperity meets more abundant liquidity” will be the main investment logic of the whole year. On this premise, there is an opportunity of “dilemma reversal” in the mandatory food and breeding industry; 5g communication may be close to the industrial inflection point, and there may be nonlinear growth opportunities in the fields of Internet of things and meta universe.
Wei Wei, chief strategist of Ping An Securities, said that carbon neutralization is the long-term main line of China’s industrial transformation and upgrading, which will give birth to new economic growth points and bring medium and long-term layout direction to the capital market.
“On the one hand, industries such as new energy, new energy vehicles and energy storage will continue to grow rapidly; on the other hand, energy-saving and environmental protection materials and energy-saving equipment are expected to usher in new growth points. On the whole, we suggest looking for the diffusion of investment opportunities in all links along the above industrial chain. At the same time, we should pay attention to preventing the risk of periodic overvaluation.” Wei Wei said.
(Shanghai Securities News)
