One week’s essay: the orders of central construction enterprises in February have not generally improved, and the social finance data is lower than the unanimous expectation of wind. We expect to steadily increase and substantially speed up under the growth target of 5.5% GDP. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed that by 2025, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings across the country will be more than 50 million KW, and BIPV will meet the new opportunities.
The orders of central construction enterprises did not generally improve in February, and the social finance data was lower than the consensus expectation of wind, expecting a substantial acceleration of steady growth. Recently, Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) , China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) announced the new orders signed from January to February, increasing by 1.67%, 6.70%, 87.53% and 14.63% respectively. On a year-on-year basis, the growth rates of new orders signed by the above four companies in December, January and February were 107.86%, 3.10% and 0.04% respectively; 42.67%、19.36%、-9.82%； 12.30%、82.98%、97.35%； 6.87%、6.36%、25.54%。
We believe that the growth rate of orders of the four companies is quite differentiated, and it is difficult to draw the conclusion that the orders of central construction enterprises have generally improved since this year. Meanwhile, according to the data released on the central bank’s website, China’s social financing scale increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in February, 531.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year, which is also far lower than the consensus expectation of wind. In particular, it is worth noting that in February, residents’ short-term loans and medium and long-term loans showed negative growth, which shows that residents’ loan confidence is insufficient. This year, under the “triple pressure” of economic downturn, we set a growth target of 5.5% GDP. When no obvious signs of recovery have been seen in other fields, infrastructure is expected to once again become an important starting point for steady growth. We look forward to a substantial acceleration of steady growth of infrastructure and are still optimistic about the construction sector.
The Ministry of housing and urban rural development proposed that by 2025, the installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings across the country will be more than 50 million KW, and BIPV will meet the new opportunities. Recently, the official website of the Ministry of housing and Urban Rural Development released the “14th five year plan” for building energy conservation and green building development, which pointed out that by 2025, the energy-saving transformation area of existing buildings will be more than 350 million square meters, the construction of ultra-low energy consumption and near zero energy consumption buildings will be more than 50 million square meters, and the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new urban buildings in that year will reach 30%, The installed capacity of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic in new buildings nationwide is more than 50 million KW, the building application area of geothermal energy is more than 100 million square meters, the replacement rate of renewable energy in urban buildings is 8%, and the proportion of power consumption in building energy consumption is more than 55%. We think building energy conservation is unstoppable, and building photovoltaic integration (bippv) is one of the main ways of building energy conservation. We think building photovoltaic integration (bippv) is one of the main ways at the moment. We think bippv will usherin new development opportunities during the 14th Five Year Plan period. We think bippv will usher in new development opportunities during the 14th five year period. Related targets can be focused on Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) \ \. We think BIPV will usher in new development opportunities during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Related targets can focus on 603 Wuxi Hongsheng Heat Exchanger Manufacturing Co.Ltd(603090) 909098 Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) and other companies.
Market review and summary: this week (202203.07202203.11), the construction engineering index decreased by 2.55%, and the Shanghai composite index decreased by 4.00% in the same period; Since the beginning of 2022, the construction index has decreased by 1.71% and the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased by 9.07% over the same period, ranking third in 29 industries In terms of sectors, the international engineering sector performed best, with an increase of 3.67% in a single week, while other sectors fell. Petroleum engineering, chemical engineering, garden, decoration, housing construction, engineering consulting, infrastructure, professional engineering and steel structure decreased by 8.69%, 6.75%, 4.48%, 2.93%, 2.74%, 2.61%, 2.57%, 2.41% and 0.16% respectively.
Investment strategies: the building industry underestimates, low gains, and low positions. At the same time, the logic of the fundamentals is constantly strengthening, and new and old infrastructure is usherin good. We suggest to focus on: 1) our recommendations focus on: 1) steady growth in infrastructure: Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) . 2) Building new track leaders: Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Suwen Electric Energy Technology Co.Ltd(300982) , Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) , China Design Group Co.Ltd(603018) , Cofco Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(301058) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) .
Risk tip: the steady growth policy is less than expected, and the landing of new energy projects is less than expected.
