At the beginning of 2022, a number of fund companies have issued A-share investment strategies for 2022. The reporter combed these views and summarized the following points for your reference.
in 2022, the market continued to be structured
Fund companies generally believe that the factors driving the fundamental changes of individual stocks are becoming more and more diversified. In the future, the A-share market may still maintain the trend of structural market, and the annual shock probability is high.
In its annual outlook report, China Southern Fund pointed out that looking forward to 2022, China's manufacturing investment and infrastructure investment will continue to provide support for economic growth. There will be a moderate recovery in the growth rate of social finance, which will support a shares, but it is unlikely to rise sharply.
At the same time, it is expected that commodity prices will fall slightly after peaking this year, and various varieties will be differentiated. The tight supply and demand pattern of energy commodities represented by crude oil is still, or relatively outperforms other varieties.
From the perspective of capital, Wanjia Fund believes that the Central Bank of China will continue its loose monetary policy in 2022. With the cooling of the real estate market, the decline of the yield of financial products, the recovery of residents' income and the moving of savings into the stock market will continue. It is expected that the liquidity of the stock market will not be too poor in the first half of next year.
From the perspective of valuation, Wanjia Fund said that the valuation of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is only higher than that of Hang Seng Index and lower than that of major developed country indexes such as S & P 500, NASDAQ, Nikkei 225 and DAX in Germany. In vertical comparison, the price earnings ratio quantile of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has continued to fall, which has been at the historical median level of the past decade. Combined with the fundamentals of monetary easing and high prosperity in some industries, Wanjia funds believe that A-Shares still have structural opportunities. Subsequently, based on the judgment of low economic fundamentals, stable and loose liquidity, the first quarter of 2022 will still be the stage of sideways index and deep excavation of individual stocks.
Similarly, combined with the overall reasonable valuation of a shares, internal differentiation and the continuous inflow of incremental funds, the probability of systemic risk is small. China Canada fund expects that the overall index will continue to fluctuate in 2022. Different from focusing on several main tracks in the past few years, the market structure will be more blooming next year. It is expected that the industry rotation and selection structure will bring more significant excess returns.
In the opinion of Dacheng Fund, the risk of equity market index in 2022 is small, dominated by structural market; The cost performance of track and lying win investment opportunities has decreased significantly. Grasping the long-term industrial trend with micro industrial research and paying equal attention to breadth and depth is the way to win high-quality decision-making.
According to the judgment of Jingshun Great Wall Fund, on the whole, this year may not be an index level market, but the systemic risk is small. The probability will continue this year's structural market, and the direction of credit structure expansion will also bring more alpha opportunities. Yingda Fund said that in 2022, the overall characteristics of China's equity market are expected to be "mainly shock and upward".
rhythm or overall showing an "n-type" trend
In addition to judging the overall market, many public offerings have predicted the market rhythm this year.
Huatai Bairui Fund believes that in the first quarter of 2022, the market is expected to usher in a turbulent market in spring, and the small market value style will continue to be strong. It is optimistic about new infrastructure, technology and securities companies in the first quarter; In the second quarter, under the background of broad credit and falling overseas inflation, the performance of A-Shares is expected to usher in an inflection point, and the time window for the layout of blue chips in the market is approaching.
Around the second quarter, the current round of pig cycle bottomed out, and the logic of price increase of mass consumer goods will be more smooth at that time. By the second half of next year, with the recovery of corporate profits, advanced manufacturing and TMT are expected to emerge investment opportunities again.
Huatai Baoxing Fund said that under the expectation of "stable growth and wide credit" in the equity market in 2022, it will be actively available at the beginning of the year; After the correction of U.S. policies, A-Shares may face strong adjustment pressure in the middle of the year; Overseas pressure eased in the second half of the year, China's economy slowly stepped out of the pressure zone, and A-Shares are expected to gradually stabilize.
Wanjia Fund believes that the short-term spring agitation can be expected, and the market index center is expected to rise further; In the medium term, in the first half of 2022, "economic expectation is good + liquidity is loose", the market tends to continue to rise, but most of the increase may be completed in the first quarter and tend to fluctuate in the second quarter; The main pressure in the second half of 2022 lies in the overseas and Chinese economy, which may put pressure on the market, but it is expected that the downward pressure is mainly in the third quarter and is expected to return to stabilization in the fourth quarter.
Throughout the year, Wanjia Fund believes that the economy will stabilize in a weak downward trend in 2022, the superimposed liquidity margin will turn loose, and the main market indexes may achieve positive returns, showing an "n-type" trend in rhythm or overall.
Haifutong Fund believes that the first quarter of 2022 will be the window period for policy development. China Post Fund believes that the rhythm of the A-share market in 2022 may be high at both ends and low in the middle, which can grasp the possible favorable window in the first and fourth quarters.
Some public funders believe that the steady growth in 2022 is bound to increase. Therefore, for a shares, the growth rate of corporate profits will gradually stabilize and recover. In the year when the important conference is held, market stability is also crucial. Such a background helps to prevent the market impact caused by the rapid decline of risk appetite. A-Shares will usher in a better investment environment in 2022. It is expected that the overall situation will be stable before rising.
still take "growth" as the investment strategy
Although the public offering generally believes that there are still structural opportunities in the A-share market, there are some differences in style research and judgment, and there is a situation of focusing on growth and value.
Many fund companies unanimously believe that "growth" is still the main line of A-share investment in 2022, and the probability will still take "growth" as the investment strategy.
Chen Penghui, assistant general manager of the intelligent Equity Investment Department of Zheshang fund, believes that this year's investment Keyword - "growth", that is, pay attention to the industry with long-term growth, and then take the company as an example, it should be a company that continues to enhance its competitiveness and is about to cash in profits, and find winners in the growth industry where the outcome is not divided! To sum up, it is "continuous growth and continuous cycle".
GF pointed out that in 2022, specific to industry and style, short-term finance and consumption rebounded. However, the direction of policy plus leverage remains unchanged. Combined with the future profit forecast, the ranking of the industry is technology manufacturing > consumption > Finance > cycle. In style, small cap growth > Large Cap Growth > large cap value > small cap value.
Cinda aoyinji also believes that the market growth style will be dominant in 2022, and the real estate chain and traditional value industries need to be patient.
South fund expects that growth and small cap style will dominate in 2022. Under the guidance of gem, science and innovation board and Beijing stock exchange, the theme of innovation and creation may continue to maintain a relatively high popularity, and the overall style of the market is expected to continue to favor growth. At the same time, under the pressure of economic downturn, large blue chips will relatively lose to small cap stocks.
A-Shares are expected to gradually return to the value style
When a number of public offerings predicted that this year would still be a year of "growth" style, many public offerings believed that A-Shares were expected to gradually return to the value style in 2022. If 2021 is a big year for theme stocks and cyclical stocks, there may be a style change in 2022, and the targets of value investment, including some high-quality leading stocks, are expected to usher in a restorative rise.
Luo Shifeng, research director of Nord fund, said, "in terms of market style, after nearly a year of adjustment, the market style will tend to be more balanced between long-term and short-term, value and growth in 22 years. With the stabilization and recovery of China's economy and the gradual weakening of long-term uncertain factors, the A-share market is expected to gradually return to the value style in 22 years."
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, said that as the epidemic is effectively controlled, the epidemic prevention and control measures are expected to be moderately relaxed and more accurate, and the impact on economic activities will be reduced. Therefore, some high-quality leading stocks wrongly killed in 2022 will have the opportunity to recover. 2022 may be a big year for value investment, and the trend of slow bull and long bull in the A-share market will continue.
Wu Yue, director of large consumption research of Harvest Fund, predicted that 2022 may be a year of consumption reversal. At present, the position of the whole consumer sector has basically been in the end. With the subsequent reversal, the consumer sector may usher in a round of structural market rather than rebound.
He said, "With the passage of time, the brand value and industry value of consumer brands are increasing, and consumers will be willing to give them a premium, which has a positive time value. The more they fall this year, the higher their expectations for the market next year. In 2022, the prosperity of some categories began to bottom out and pick up. With the widening of the scissors gap between income and cost again, the segmentation directions that have been significantly suppressed this year are: The full reversal may occur next year. "
technology manufacturing and large consumption deserve attention
In the specific investment direction, a number of public offerings also expressed their views. Although there are differences in specific promising investment fields, the main line of large investment tends to be the same as a whole.
Jingshun Great Wall Fund said that in 2022, under the background of economic transformation, there are still long-term excess returns in science and technology manufacturing and large consumption, which is worthy of continuous attention.
On the one hand, the industrial trends and market conditions supporting emerging industries are expected to further deepen. Green energy represented by new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage, as well as core links such as automotive electronics, automotive chips and energy infrastructure, will be one of the important investment lines of A-Shares next year.
On the other hand, large consumer industries benefit from consumption upgrading and have excess returns. The price rise of some consumer goods will significantly improve the profitability of the downstream consumer industry, focusing on consumer goods with good industry structure, strong cost transmission ability and room for price increase.
Wanjia Fund pointed out that it mainly excavates three main investment lines in plate allocation. First, from the perspective of long-term allocation, we continue to be firmly optimistic about the high prosperity track where policies and industrial trends coexist, such as new energy, military industry, high-end manufacturing, etc.
Second, in the medium-term rotation dimension, we are optimistic about the allocation opportunities of the necessary consumption under the transmission of annual inflation to the downstream, such as food and beverage, medicine, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc; The third is the short-term game dimension. In the first quarter, we were optimistic about the main line of "stable growth" of policies, such as steel, construction, building materials, coal, etc.
Chen Penghui, assistant general manager of intelligent Equity Investment Department of Zheshang fund, is optimistic about the opportunities contained in military, semiconductor, manufacturing and other racetracks. For the military industry, the demand of the military industry after the military reform is sustainable, and the key areas need to make up for weaknesses. Under this background, the procurement strategy of the main engine factory has shifted from cost plus to guarantee supply priority, so that the upstream enterprises with stronger R & D strength and delivery ability have greater profit space, and the stability of future profits and valuation may be significantly enhanced.
In the midstream manufacturing industry, on the one hand, the upstream raw materials worsened the short-term profit statement, the stock price fell more, and the valuation of some high-quality companies returned to below the historical median level; On the other hand, based on the stock selection idea of dilemma reversal, we focus on some high-profile segments where demand is still strong and will continue.
The China Canada Fund said that new infrastructure and old infrastructure will be an important starting point for steady growth. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and photovoltaic is expected to maintain a high boom.
From the end of the year to 2022, a total of 30 new models will continue to be listed, and major car enterprises will further explore the mainstream market of 100000-200000 yuan, which will further release consumer demand, and the downstream production and sales are expected to continue to maintain high growth. At present, the market's expectation of medium Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle sales in 2022 has been further raised; The price increase of midstream battery is expected to be implemented in the fourth quarter, and the profit will improve in 2022.
Global PV is expected to maintain a high outlook in 2022. It is expected that the new installed capacity of global PV will still maintain a growth rate of more than 15% by 2025.
CPI chain, the second high-end Baijiu accelerate expansion, mass consumer goods intensive price increase. High-end Baijiu has a stable competition pattern, strong performance and a tight balance between supply and demand structure. Secondary Baijiu benefits from channel change and price expectations. Profitability in 2022 is expected to grow at a high speed.
In terms of food processing, since the fourth quarter, mass consumer goods enterprises have intensively raised prices, and the performance probability has reached the bottom. In terms of resumption, it generally takes 1-2 quarters from price increase to performance fulfillment. The cost pressure has been gradually relieved. If the superimposed demand recovers at the same time, it is expected that the volume and price will rise together in 2022, and the performance can be expected.
At the same time, there are also some opportunities. New leaders of high prosperity continue to emerge and expand the scope of upstream and downstream. In addition to the CXO sector with high concentration of medical funds, the adjusted valuations of biological products, innovative drugs and medical services have been gradually digested and entered the layout range one after another. At the same time, there are many listed companies related to the upstream of life sciences, and the high boom growth continues to be concerned.
(China Fund News)
