Introduction to this report:
The risk appetite has been reduced to a very low position, and the short-term concerns about the fundamentals have been basically reflected, and the sector has been adjusted to the bottom position; In the rebound process, the performance certainty target is preferred, and the medium-term dimension intelligence is still the most deterministic direction.
Summary:
Pessimistic expectations are the basic response, and pay more attention to performance certainty in the short term. The risk appetite has been reduced to a very low position, and the short-term concerns about the fundamentals have been basically reflected, and the sector has been adjusted to the bottom position; In the process of rebound, the performance certainty target is preferred, and the medium-term dimension intelligence is still the most deterministic direction. After the whole, there will be better opportunities. Three main investment lines of "intelligence + high-profile new energy + independent brand" are recommended.
The short-term disturbance of fundamentals has basically responded. We will observe whether the impact of China's epidemic will exceed expectations in the short term. The prices of upstream raw materials aluminum and some chips have increased significantly since February 2022, which is expected to have a certain impact on the performance of Q1 in 2022, and the impact of raw materials needs to wait for an inflection point; Recently, the orders of passenger cars, including new energy vehicles, are relatively flat, and the orders of new energy vehicle enterprises in the head are still strong, but the orders of some new forces of car manufacturing fluctuate significantly; Due to the regional conflict, some European vehicle factories and parts enterprises shut down again, and there are concerns about the supply and demand market of some parts. However, these negative factors have been basically reflected in the stock price, and some factors have improved marginally, and the fundamental expectation has basically exceeded the bottom.
The decline of risk appetite is a more important reason for the adjustment of the sector. The current page of risk appetite has been adjusted to a very low position. Since Q4 of 2021, the auto parts sector has been a general rising market, and the risk appetite is rising. There has been a large increase from the target of clear performance in 20222023 to the track where the performance is expected to break out in 20232025. Since 2022, the risk appetite of the whole market has decreased significantly. According to the order of performance certainty from small to large, the sector has undergone a complete round of adjustment, and there is little room for risk appetite to continue to decline.
Three main investment lines of "intelligence + high vision, new energy + independent brand" are recommended. The short-term relative return comes from the certainty of performance, which is found in companies with strong certainty in Q4 in 2021; The medium-term dimension of automotive intelligence is still the most deterministic track, and following the market adjustment is a good opportunity. Intelligent main line, recommended targets Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , etc; The main line of Gaojing's new energy, with recommended targets of Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Jee Technology Co.Ltd(688162) , Rayhoo Motor Dies Co.Ltd(002997) , Cwb Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(605005) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Guangdong Greenway Technology Co.Ltd(688345) , etc; Main line of independent brand, recommended targets Zhejiang Cfmoto Power Co.Ltd(603129) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Geely Automobile, etc.
Risk tip: the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
