When we fear or even leave the market due to the continuous adjustment of the market, what are professional institutions doing? In the current market volatility, this problem is particularly worth thinking about.
Since 2022, we have seen the market falling endlessly, fund sales entering the freezing point, and the continuous outflow of funds going north. Standing at the current time point, we also see that institutions are actively self buying, opening the upper limit of product purchase, actively buying and publicly expressing their views.
Xie Zhiyu, global deputy general manager of Xingzheng, recently made a public voice. By the end of 2021, his management scale was 96.345 billion yuan and his long-term investment performance was excellent.
Statistics show that as of February 28, 2022, the return of Xingquan Herun managed by Xie Zhiyu has reached 632.88% since January 29, 2013, the performance benchmark is 71.98%, surpassing the performance benchmark by 560.95%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has increased by 71.22% in the same periodp align="center">2013.1.292022.2.28
in the cognition of the market, Xingzheng Global Fund often publishes some views independent of the market at the critical moment of the market, which has almost become the tradition of the company. Instead of cultivating active equity funds for a long time, it has become a vivid label of market cognition Xingzheng global. So, based on the current time point, what does Xie Zhiyu want to express to the market
main points:
\u3000\u3000 "At present, there are many worrying situations in the market, such as the economic environment and external factors, which are reflected in the stock price with relatively pessimistic expectations. However, if we carefully analyze them, there are no factors worthy of special panic. On the contrary, after a substantial adjustment, there have been a number of reasonable valuations in the market, and enterprises are expected to improve for a long time Over long-term holding of the investment object with reasonable return. "
\u3000\u3000 "The stock market is always a relatively complex system. It is very rare that a single state appears at a certain point in time. In the complex market information, we need to sort out a main line: whether the expectation of China's economic growth has changed? Whether China's leading enterprises still maintain a sustainable competitive advantage in the world? The importance of residents' wealth management Will demand persist—— If these factors do not change in essence, the large investment framework will not change. "
\u3000\u3000 "My approach is to buy high-quality enterprises at a reasonable price and earn money for long-term growth. From this perspective, I first care about the development status of high-quality enterprises in the current economic environment, long-term sustainable profitability and whether they are in a reasonable valuation; secondly, I worry about the economic environment and external environmental risks. Based on the current point of view, I think the current market There are a number of enterprises on the market, so I can choose to hold firmly and expect relatively stable and reasonable returns. "
"At this time, I think the difficulty of investment has been significantly reduced. Many assets are much less difficult to choose than before. For a long time, I felt that there was no particularly good target to choose."
"The risk point I am more concerned about this year is inflation, because external geopolitical factors may be amplified and have a certain impact on China's economy. We need to continue to observe how the impact will be. On the whole, I still believe in the government's regulation and control ability."
"My personal investment strategy is mainly to invest in the fund products managed by myself. There is no redemption this year. On the contrary, I have been applying for purchase."
macro: overall controllable risk
no need to be overly pessimistic
Recently, the market has retreated sharply. I think there may be the following factors. First, the market has more pessimistic expectations for the future economic environment. Superimposed on the international geopolitical turmoil, the US interest rate hike and contraction table, and the high valuation level of A-Shares (which has increased greatly in the past few years) and other factors; The second is the current market valuation and liquidity.
First of all, we have a relatively clear goal of macro-economy. The government work report pointed out that this year's economic growth target is 5.5%. This growth goal sends a very strong signal to the market. The reason why such a goal is proposed means that we should now focus on ensuring economic growth, consolidate the success achieved on the basis of epidemic prevention and control in the past few years, and ensure the sustainable trend of economic growth.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to soaring prices of raw materials, especially energy, which is unfavorable to economic policy, but the situation is not as bad as everyone seems. Firstly, our exchange rate has been relatively stable. Secondly, in terms of energy, our actual situation is that the overall consumption of coal is still too large. At the same time, the new energy industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and nuclear power will continue to be invested in the future, so the impact will be relatively limited.
In terms of industry, the "double carbon" policy may be promoted in a more positive and stable way, which will play a good role in the expected stability of many industrial enterprises. The platform economy and the strict regulatory policies expected by the market may also be in the later stage. I believe that the expectations of the market and entrepreneurs for these industries will also change greatly in the future, which will eventually promote and ensure the economic growth at a certain growth rate at the same time.
The overall conclusion is that I think the market has been greatly adjusted at this time point, which should have a certain investment value . Now I can find some companies that can give relatively reasonable returns to investors in a certain long-term time. This is my current assessment of the whole market. There is nothing particularly worthy of panic.
Market: the valuation level has been relatively reasonable
The company can hold a batch of for a long time
In the past few years, there has been a problem of structural overestimation in the market, but with the recent decline of the market, the market valuation has decreased significantly, and the valuation digestion has been realized in a very short time. Therefore, I personally believe that the current overall market is no longer overvalued. Of course, it cannot be ruled out that there are individual industries and individual companies may still be in a relatively high position, but on the whole, I think the overall valuation level is relatively reasonable.
We have also made a simple comparison, that is, from the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 500 and China 800 indexes, if we use the five-year quantile, they are about 10% to 20%, which should not be a particularly high level. In addition, the market is always a relatively complex system. Standing at the moment, we can see its good side more and don't tangle with the bad side too much.
If you carefully observe several large framework dimensions, they have not changed.
first, is there a big change in the expectation of China's economic growth? Second, do China's leading enterprises continue to have a competitive advantage over others in the world? Third, is our residents' demand for wealth management sustainable
I don't think these things have changed much at this time point, so the big framework hasn't changed.
When the big framework has not changed, the second step is to ask yourself what money you make. I always tend to think that the way we can make more money in the current market is to find a good enterprise, buy it at a reasonable price, and finally earn the long-term growth of the enterprise.
If we are sure that we earn this part of the money, then our concerns about the market, the economy and various interference factors can be relatively put behind. Pay more attention to the situation of the enterprise and judge whether its long-term sustainable profitability is in a reasonable valuation.
Now there are still a number of enterprises in this market that I can hold, and I am confident that I can enjoy relatively stable and reasonable returns. So I don't think there are any elements in the market that are particularly worthy of panic. Conversely, we should gradually see that many valuations are reasonable and enterprises are good in the long term. We can get reasonable returns by holding these enterprises.
industry: optimistic about Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry and optimistic about Hong Kong stocks
Which fields or industries have greater opportunities?
The first is a group of high-quality white horse enterprises that have been excavated before the market. Over the past few years, the market has given them high valuations, but with the recent decline, the valuations of many companies have been reduced to a very reasonable situation, which is considered valuable by holding these companies.
From the perspective of industry, I still maintain my optimistic attitude towards Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) industry. The European energy crisis may make them speed up the process of new energy while looking for alternative suppliers, which may play a great role in promoting this industry. However, being optimistic about the industry does not mean that every company in the industry has Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) entered. The trend of stock price is very complex, so we should analyze specific problems.
I have always been optimistic about Hong Kong stocks. In the past two years, in addition to economic factors, Hong Kong stocks have also been affected by a variety of factors such as the external environment. However, according to objective evaluation, the investment value of Hong Kong stocks will eventually fall on the value of enterprises.
The performance of Hong Kong technology stocks this year is very poor. Why do people in this industry have such a pessimistic view? Policy and traffic bottlenecks are the reasons.
But in fact, the current Internet giant companies have entered a very stable valuation system. Of course, different companies and different business formats have different valuation methods. The reason why you give such a low valuation is largely because the flow has reached a certain level. People think you can't do some things in the future, and the liquidity may not be improved. However, there are many things to worry about, which may not always happen. Second, it is precisely because of concerns that many companies will arrive at such a valuation now.
A similar situation is the same in Hong Kong stocks. When you like it, you think it represents the future and are willing to value them with relatively high expectations. However, even from now on, the investment of excellent enterprises in team construction and R & D is still very valuable. Therefore, on the contrary, I think the opportunities for Hong Kong stocks are bigger, not smaller.
Xingzheng global funds open for subscription
While Xie Zhiyu expressed his market views, Xingzheng's products around the world have recently opened the purchase ceiling.
On March 10, Xingzheng Global Fund announced that from March 11, it would resume accepting applications for single day subscription (including daily subscription, regular quota subscription) and conversion transfer in of Xingquan green investment mixed single fund account with a cumulative amount of more than 50000 yuan. Since August 11, 2021, the fund has set a limit of 50000 yuan per household per day.
Xingquan Heyuan Holdings Co., Ltd. also announced the cancellation of large purchase restrictions from March 11 and accepted the application for a single fund account with a single day purchase amount of more than 50000 yuan. Class A shares and class C shares were judged respectively.
Not only that, as early as February 24, the Xingquan business model mixed by relocation management also resumed the application of more than 100000 yuan for a single account per day. In this regard, housewarming recently publicly expressed its views:
\u3000\u3000 "Xingquan's business model has recently opened a large amount of subscription, which is not necessarily optimistic about the short-term market. However, we find that the valuations of many companies that have been tracked from the bottom up for many years have undergone great adjustments, and from the long-term perspective, their opportunities to obtain income are becoming greater and greater. Personally, I think it will be a good idea if there is capital to make long-term investment More and more comfortable. "
