This week, the A-share market reappeared a strong adjustment trend. The early oversold sectors such as food and beverage, medicine and biology rebounded to some extent. The non-ferrous metals, steel and real estate sectors fell again this week after rising at different stages. The Fed's interest rate hike will soon be superimposed on the rebound of China's local epidemic. How will A-Shares perform in the future?
In the view of institutions, A-Shares stabilized after falling, and the "market bottom" has been confirmed twice. The supply risk caused by short-term geographical events and other factors may still continue to ferment, but it may be relatively resilient in the medium term. In terms of configuration, the short-term undervalued "steady growth" sector may have relative gains. As the critical point of emotional catharsis approaches, A-Shares will usher in the resonance upward of value and growth.
future investment concerns
financial data of 2 month weakened periodically
On March 11, the central bank released the financial statistics report for February. The report shows that at the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 244.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, 0.6 and 0.9 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively; The balance of narrow money (M1) was 62.16 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%, 6.6 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 2.7 percentage points lower than the same period of last year; The balance of money in circulation (M0) was 9.72 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%. The net cash returned in that month was 896.1 billion yuan.
state food and Drug Administration: approve covid-19 antigen self-test products to market
On March 12, the website of the State Food and Drug Administration released the pending information of the approval document (change) of medical devices. The document shows that the four covid-19 antigen detection kits developed by Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) subsidiaries Shenzhen Huada Yinyuan Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing jinwofu Bioengineering Technology Co., Ltd. and Nanjing Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) Medical Technology Co., Ltd. have passed the registration information change of the food and Drug Administration. Plus Beijing huaketai, which was approved to change on March 11, the number of manufacturers approved to change has increased to five.
multiple adjustment of property market policies
due to the increase of urban policy implementation
According to institutional data, as of March 8, 55 real estate market regulation policies have been adjusted this year, including reducing the proportion of down payment, reducing housing loan interest rate, relaxing provident fund loan requirements, etc. Experts believe that all localities are accelerating the implementation of the requirements of "supporting the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers", and the implementation of urban policies will be further strengthened.
the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate decision next week
From March 15 to 16 local time, the Federal Reserve will hold a two-day interest rate meeting. The industry generally believes that the interest rate hike in March is a certainty, and the follow-up focus is on the path of reducing the table. Some industry institutions believe that based on the trade-off between inflation and economic growth targets, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates ahead (it is expected to raise interest rates by 25bp in March) to curb demand and control inflation. After inflation is controlled to a certain extent, it will slow down the pace of interest rate increase in the second half of the year to ensure the support of policies for economic recovery.
institutional outlook
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : "market bottom" has been confirmed twice
Recently, the superposition of internal and external risk disturbances has induced investors to vent their negative emotions. A shares stabilized after falling, and the "market bottom" has been confirmed twice. As the critical point of emotional venting approaches, A-Shares will usher in a resonant upward trend of value and growth. It is suggested to adhere to the balanced allocation of style and industry, stick to the main line of steady growth, and continue to layout around the "Two Lows" (varieties with relatively low fundamental expectations and valuation); Recently, we will focus on lithium, photovoltaic, semiconductor, Baijiu, medicine, and construction.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the undervalued main line may have relative benefits
The supply risk caused by short-term geopolitical events and other factors may still continue to ferment, and the market turnaround may occur after the marginal easing of macro risks such as inflation and Geopolitics; In the medium term, the Chinese market may be relatively resilient. The valuation of the Chinese market is relatively low in history and attractive compared with other major markets. Structurally, the short-term undervalued "steady growth" sector may have relative benefits. After the macro risks gradually subside, the high boom growth fields and the middle and lower reaches manufacturing industry squeezed by costs may usher in a turnaround.
Anxin Securities: market reversal will take time
At present, under the background of external factors (Russia Ukraine problem, fed interest rate hike and global inflation) and the Chinese epidemic has not been significantly alleviated, the weak market will rebound, but the market reversal will take some time. Maintain the awareness that the current market is at the bottom of the strategy, and the structural market of A-Shares in March is still firm and predictable. In March, the market will pay more attention to the performance of the first quarter report, and the possible segmentation directions that continue to exceed expectations are: cyclical products (potash fertilizer, shipping, coking coal, lead and zinc, fluorine chemical industry), new energy (lithium, cobalt, Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , nuclear power), medical services (CXO, covid-19 inspection), manufacturing industry (motor, electronic parts, machine tool equipment), etc.
Yinhua Fund: new energy vehicles still have long-term investment value
At present, new energy vehicles still have long-term investment value. Macroscopically, under the global carbon neutral consensus, the new energy vehicle track has long-term certainty; In terms of the industry, the off-season of new energy vehicles is not light, the production and sales are better than expected, and the prosperity of the industry is still high; The early valuation of new energy vehicles has been greatly overestimated. Combined with the medium and long-term upward judgment of the industry fundamentals, the greater the callback range of the new energy vehicle sector, the greater the investment opportunities contained therein.
Botong Fund: enterprise profit expectation or gradual improvement
The soaring commodity prices caused by geographical conflicts have exacerbated the market's concern about future economic stagflation. At the same time, the liquidity pressure caused by the stop loss of absolute income products and the closing of two financing funds has further amplified the speed and range of adjustment. However, under the background of strong intention to stabilize growth and the second implementation of policies, the subsequent economic and corporate profit expectations may gradually improve.
Golden Eagle Fund: the cost performance of equity investment is highlighting
At present, the performance price ratio of stocks and bonds of various important indexes has been at an all-time high, and the performance price ratio of equity investment is becoming prominent. In order to cope with the potential of the metaphase of global inflation, the main line of steady growth still needs to be configured, that is, bank real estate chain, new and old infrastructure chain and mass consumption. Before the steady growth policy is implemented, bargain hunting can be involved. Pay attention to the technology sector with cost-effective valuation from the bottom up. With the intensive disclosure period of the first quarterly report, the boom direction of high performance and appropriate cost-effective may still be.
