After three years of track investment, the overall market needs to be revised, and the investment in 2022 is difficult. At the beginning of the Fed’s interest rate hike next week, I’m afraid that the tight global capital will still make the adjustment of overvalued industries. The overall increase of A-Shares is not large. Once there is a large adjustment, there may be an opportunity. The first defensive counterattack in 2022 is about to start.
After the adjustment of the overall market, the sentiment of the market is expected to decline rapidly in the first week of this year. However, after the adjustment of the overall market, it is expected that the market will experience a sharp decline in the first week of this year.
The current round of market adjustment is mainly based on three points. The first is the disturbance caused by geographical problems. The risk aversion has led to resonance adjustment in the global market. The massive rise caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine has further heated the concern of “stagflation”, which may dust the recovery of the global economy; The second is the pace of the Fed’s interest rate hike. The Fed’s first interest rate hike next week is imperative. Although the market expectation is relatively sufficient, there are still different views on the amplitude and speed. I’m afraid the tight global capital caused by the strength of the US dollar at the beginning of the interest rate hike will still make the overvalued industry adjust; Finally, there is the uncertainty of China’s macro environment. Although the “two sessions” set the target of GDP growth of 5.5%, the specific implementation means of “stable growth” still do not meet the market expectations. More monetary and fiscal forces are needed to dispel the market’s concerns about the economy.
However, the above three major adjustments are expected to be implemented one by one in March. Geopolitical issues take time. Each negotiation will alleviate global concerns, and bulk prices are expected to gradually stabilize under the policy intervention of various countries; The Fed’s interest rate hike will be implemented next week, and the market has sufficient negative expectations. If the final interest rate hike can fall at 25 basis points, it will be considered negative, or even exceed expectations; As for the implementation of “steady growth” measures in the mainland, it still needs to be observed, and the economic data in March and April will be crucial. Whether new and old infrastructure can exceed expectations in growth under the background of accelerated credit will determine the rising space of “steady growth” related industries. Therefore, the second quarter is expected to usher in the first defensive counterattack of this year.
After the three-year track investment boom since 2019, the overall market needs to be corrected, and the increase of global uncertainty will inevitably make the investment in 2022 difficult. Defensive counterattack is our main strategy for this year at the beginning of the year. Fortunately, the overall increase of A-Shares is not large, and there is also large room for macro growth. Therefore, once there is a large adjustment, there may be a chance to usher in good left trading opportunities. Shanghai Stock Exchange should have strong support at 3150 points and gem below 2500 points.
(the author is Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Shanghai Research Director)
