event
On December 31, , the State Drug Administration (nmpa) approved the listing of Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine Co.Ltd(600276) two class 1 innovative drugs through the priority review and approval procedure, namely darcilil hydroxyethanesulfonate tablets and proline hengglijing tablets.
Among them, dalpiciclib is a cyclin dependent kinase 4 and 6 (CDK4 and Cdk6) inhibitor, which can reduce the phosphorylation level of retinoblastoma protein downstream of CDK4 and Cdk6 signal pathway and induce G1 phase arrest, so as to inhibit the proliferation of tumor cells. The listing of the drug provides a new treatment option for breast cancer patients.
proline hengglijing is a sodium glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor. By inhibiting SGLT2, it reduces the reabsorption of glucose filtered by renal tubules and reduces the renal threshold of glucose, so as to increase urinary glucose excretion. The listing of this variety provides new treatment options for adults with type 2 diabetes.
Speed up R & D and commercialization of medical insurance
with the listing of the company’s two class 1 innovative varieties, the company’s product pipeline is becoming richer and richer, and the innovation momentum is constantly improving. the company focused on innovation, and the operating revenue of innovative drugs increased steadily. In the first half of 2021, the revenue of innovative drugs reached 5.207 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%. The proportion of revenue of innovative drugs has increased from 30% in 2020 to 40% in the first half of 2021. The driving effect of innovative drugs on the company’s performance is gradually becoming prominent. At present, more than 240 projects of the company have entered the clinic, covering many treatment fields such as tumor, autoimmune disease, cardiovascular disease, metabolic disease and so on. Meanwhile, the company continues to expand its R & D pipeline through independent R & D and license in. For example, in November, the company introduced cornerstone pharmaceutical CTLA-4 monoclonal antibody cs1002, which can further explore the combination effect of PD-1 inhibitor and CTLA-4 inhibitor in the future.
four innovative drugs were included in the national medical insurance catalogue, and the R & D commercialization chain was gradually opened. at the end of 2021, the company’s three innovative products, fluzopari, remazolam mesylate and hetropapa ethanolamine, were included in the national medical insurance catalogue through medical insurance negotiation. In addition, azilsartan, China’s first generic drug, was also included in the medical insurance catalogue through medical insurance negotiation. We believe that as an important catalyst for drug volume, health care negotiation is an important link connecting the R & D and commercialization of innovative drugs. Although the cost of being included in medical insurance is to make a substantial profit, in the volume price game, drugs can often enjoy the bonus of drugs entering the hospital and the increase in the number of new patients, and finally bring incremental contributions to varieties by exchanging volume for price.
Profit forecast
with the increasing enrichment of the company’s product pipelines and the gradual opening of the R & D commercialization chain, the company’s performance is comprehensive and large-scale, and the future can be expected. in recent years, affected by national and local volume procurement, the sales of the company’s traditional generic drugs continued to decline. Although the company’s short-term performance is under pressure, with the continuous enrichment of product pipelines and the continuous progress of clinical and commercialization of innovative drugs, the company’s performance is expected to be improved. On the occasion of leaving the old and welcoming the new, the company ushered in the listing of two innovative drugs. The innovative varieties have been increased from eight to ten, and will soon embrace the era of comprehensive innovation. It is estimated that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 6.582 billion, RMB 7.344 billion and RMB 8.591 billion respectively, and the EPS will be 1.03, 1.15 and 1.34, corresponding to 49 / 44 / 38 times of PE from 2021 to 2023 respectively. In the future, with the continuous implementation of the company’s R & D pipeline products, it is expected that the company’s performance will be gradually improved, covered for the first time, and rated as “overweight”.
Risk statement
R & D progress is less than expected, commercialization progress is less than expected, policy risks, etc.
(YueKai Chongli city)
