[editor's note]
"Historical records · biographies of goods colonization" is the earliest historical book specially describing outstanding figures engaged in "goods colonization" (commercial) activities. Sima Qian's economic thought and business wisdom of helping the world and the people are known as "historical thought and economy, which is a book cover for innovation".
A new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform are reshaping the world economic structure and reconstructing the global innovation landscape. In this great change, the stories of all entrepreneurs, entrepreneurs and migrant workers who are brave in innovation and responsibility are worth remembering. We launched the surging financial people weekly · biography of goods and colonization, which tells the stories of business figures in the tide of globalization.
They make a biography for the times, and we make a biography for them.
The conclusion that Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) is classified as a "controversial company in the photovoltaic industry" may not be controversial.
The reason why people have complex emotions about this big Mac, on the one hand, is that "there are many people who are red about right and wrong". The photovoltaic enterprise with the highest market value in the world, the world's largest monocrystalline silicon chip and module manufacturer, and won the favor of top investment institutions, all kinds of auras lead to its every move being interpreted and speculated by the outside world under a magnifying glass. On the other hand, it also has something to do with its repeated new ways: 15 years ago, polycrystalline dominated the photovoltaic market, but Longji decided to choose a small number of single crystals, push the diamond line technology revolution, and completely reverse the single polycrystalline market pattern. After standing firmly in the champion of monocrystalline silicon wafer production, Longji expanded its business downstream. Even in the winter after the "most stringent photovoltaic new deal in history" in 2018, Longji is still expanding production against the trend. In the ever-changing photovoltaic industry, Longji Kaige has a market value of more than 400 billion yuan, known as "photovoltaic Mao". With strong development momentum and rapid expansion of enterprise volume, standing in the center of the new energy industry stage Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , it has naturally become the king of topics.
Li Zhenguo, who created the 100 billion photovoltaic giant, is indifferent to the various voices of the outside world. "When different people look at a company from different angles, they will have their own understanding. It is impossible to understand the whole picture. It is normal to have some understanding deviations. Longji will not care too much about the evaluation of the outside world, including the capital market, but still need to do what should be done well."
He, who was born in the Department of physics of Lanzhou University, believes in scientific laws and market laws. "Don't challenge common sense. If you want to walk steadily, don't always think of overtaking in small, broad and curved corners." "In recent years, many people in the industry have never questioned the radical line of single crystal capital expansion," Li Longji said
Under the goal of carbon neutrality in various countries, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a new round of rapid development, which has attracted many gold diggers to cross-border flow into the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, and a new round of overcapacity cycle is coming. "The photovoltaic industry will definitely have a complete competition pattern in the future. The ability built by Longji is the ability to maintain its own survival and development even in a tragic and fully competitive environment." Li Zhenguo frankly said that Longji has always been a "surplus theorist". Although this concept has encountered challenges in the price rise caused by silicon shortage in 2021, in the long run, "shortage must be phased, and excess is the norm."
In February 2000, Li Zhenguo founded Xi'an Xinmeng Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., the predecessor of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ( Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , 601012), and is currently the president and actual controller of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) . Over the past 20 years, China's photovoltaic industry has been growing in ups and downs, and many richest star entrepreneurs have been born. Some of them are strong, some are paranoid, most of them are very adventurous, and have an extreme pursuit of speed and scale.
Li Zhenguo is different. He speaks in a gentle tone, with a strong sense of organization and logic. He talks about technology endlessly and likes to laugh. He is an optimistic idealist. In the surging news interview of more than 100 minutes, Li Zhenguo did not beat around the Bush and answered frankly. When asked about the biggest potential risk points faced by Longji, he believed that one is black technology beyond cognition, and the other is the challenge of organizational management. "There is no ready-made experience to manage an enterprise with tens of thousands of people". For the first point, Longji is open to all kinds of technological innovation, "but always analyze the problem from the perspective of the lowest cost of kwh."
focus, inertia
In the past decade, photovoltaic is the energy variety with the fastest decline in the cost of kilowatt hour electricity. Under the technological innovation led by Chinese enterprises, the kWh cost of photovoltaic power generation has decreased by nearly 90% in the past decade. China's photovoltaic industry continues to maintain its leading position in the world in terms of industrial scale, production and manufacturing and technical level. By 2020, at the photovoltaic manufacturing end, the output of Chinese enterprises in the four main links of polysilicon, silicon wafer, cell chip and module accounted for more than 2 / 3 of the global output. Behind this string of bright figures, there are also stories of photovoltaic wealth creation myth and countless bloody battles in the industrial chain.
In the management information column of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) official website, there are only resumes of three executives, namely chairman Zhong Baoshen, President Li Zhenguo and vice president Li Wenwen. With the rapid rise of the enterprise, the entrepreneurial history of the three "Landa partners" has been widely known.
After graduating from the Department of physics of Lanzhou University majoring in semiconductor materials in 1990, Li Zhenguo was assigned to Huashan semiconductor material factory (state-owned 741 factory), which was once one of the three main manufacturers of semiconductor materials in China. Two years later, he resigned from the "iron rice bowl" and established Shanxi Wenxi Xinda electronic parts factory. Later, he founded Fushun Longji and panxia single crystal base of Xi'an University of technology with his classmates. He also served as general manager of Xi'an Lijing electronic technology company, a joint venture between Xi'an University of technology and Aerospace 771 Institute. It seems that after several twists and turns, it always revolves around the "single crystal".
In the millennium, Li Zhenguo founded Xi'an Xinmeng Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., which is mainly engaged in the development, manufacturing and sales of semiconductor grade monocrystalline silicon materials he is most familiar with. There are inevitable twists and turns on the road of entrepreneurship, but the East is not bright and the west is bright. A setback occasionally makes it see that the photovoltaic industry will usher in the opportunity of rapid growth. After focusing on the photovoltaic field, Li Zhenguo successively invited Zhong Baoshen and other alumni at the same level to join. In 2006, Xi'an Xinmeng was officially renamed Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , which was taken from the name of Jiang Longji, the old president of Lanzhou University and a famous educator. In 2012, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) finally landed in a shares.
"Some people asked me if I was determined to do photovoltaic very early? I don't think so. The reason why I did monocrystalline silicon before 2006 is that I can only do monocrystalline silicon." Li Zhenguo attributed his high concentration on single crystal to "inertia". "From a personal point of view, my career has three stages: the 10 years from graduation from university in 1990 to 2000 are the stage of supporting my family; the second 10 years are the 10 years of realizing my self-worth and giving full play to my ability to be useful to the society; since 2009, the number of employees in the company has exceeded 1000, and I feel a sense of responsibility and responsibility more and more. Now it is booming Base has more than 60000 employees worldwide. "
From the perspective of enterprise development, 2006 is a key watershed. This can be regarded as the real starting point for Longji's strategic entry into the photovoltaic industry.
In this year, after in-depth investigation and Analysis on the development of photovoltaic technology, Longji believes that the essence of photovoltaic power generation is energy attribute, so the ultimate goal is to minimize the cost of generating once electricity as much as possible. "If the low cost or high conversion efficiency of a single link cannot be mapped to the future contribution to the kWh cost, it may not be a good technical route." Li Zhenguo led the team to carry out systematic and careful research on many technical routes of the industry, compare the impact of thin-film battery and crystalline silicon battery on power generation cost in the future, also analyze the single-crystal battery route and polycrystalline battery route in crystalline silicon battery, and compare the advantages and disadvantages of physical purification of raw materials and Siemens method, Later, the development trend comparison between concentrating cell technology (CPV) and conventional crystalline silicon battery was added.
Finally, the conclusion is clear: single crystal is the technical route with the lowest cost of kilowatt hour power in the future. "At that time, we assumed that even if one day the polycrystalline ingot achieved zero cost, the single crystal still won in terms of kWh cost."
It sounds easy, but at that time, it was "going against the current". In 2006 and the following ten years, polycrystalline technology has been at its peak, rolling single crystals in the market share, and polycrystalline products also occupy the mainstream in the global market.
Composition of photovoltaic industry chain with different technical routes
Since Bell Labs invented the world's first silicon-based Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery in 1954, the photovoltaic industry has two camps: single crystal and polycrystalline. Different processes evolve different technical routes. The conversion efficiency of single crystal is higher, but the cost of rod pulling link is also very high; Polycrystalline conversion efficiency is lower than single crystal, but the ingot cost is low, and the "cost performance" is better for a long time.
The tug of war between single crystal and polycrystalline saw a substantial turning point in 2016: the market share of single crystal products began to rise year by year, and the market situation was rewritten by a technology called "diamond wire cutting" promoted by Longji, the leader of the single crystal camp. Since then, with the large-scale industrial application of multiple crystal pulling, increasing loading capacity, rapid growth and diamond wire cutting and flake technology, the production cost of monocrystalline silicon wafer has decreased significantly. At the same time, the high-efficiency battery technology represented by perc has significantly improved the conversion efficiency of monocrystalline products.
Longji is the most important driver of the above technological innovation, and finally realized that single crystal beat the previous polycrystalline products with cost performance. In 2014, China's single crystal market share was only about 5%. In 2019, the market share of monocrystalline silicon exceeded that of polycrystalline silicon for the first time, reaching about 65%. In 2020, the proportion will stand at 90%. The comprehensive substitution of single crystal for polycrystalline came earlier and faster than expected by Li Zhenguo and Zhong Baoshen.
from "non mainstream" to double champion
Choosing the niche route means long-term loneliness and not being understood by the mainstream market before the most important turning point.
From more than ten years of diving to the industry leader of vertical integration, has there been any psychological fluctuation within the team? Li Zhenguo told surging news that he was often asked by the media a few years ago that the photovoltaic industry has ups and downs. Why can Longji live well? "Our routine is actually very old-fashioned and there is no unique trick. Over the years, Longji's style has always followed several principles."
The first is to have firm faith in the development of photovoltaic industry, "We firmly believe that we are doing something right for the earth and the environment. At the same time, we also believe that the photovoltaic industry has made rapid technological progress and cost reduction, and will become the mainstream energy in the future, with a large market space. Since it is a correct and promising thing, we will not hesitate to invest our resources, even including our personal wealth, such as myself Come in and make up your mind to plough deeply in this industry. "
Second, whenever faced with strategic decision-making, technical route selection or major difficult problems, Longji's management team has two "iron laws": abide by the "first principle", judge everything from the underlying logic and find the essence of things; Based on the future, "look at things not only at the present, but also at the evolution of the industry in three or five years, or even ten or eight years."
The third level, once the direction is determined, do not hesitate to spend money on R & D investment, find solutions to problems, and quickly introduce large-scale industrial production to form a core competitiveness with leading technology, leading products and leading cost.
The fourth level is supported by sound financial and risk control. "In the past few years, our debt ratio has been maintained at the level of 50% and 60%. An organization's management ability has a boundary. Don't do anything beyond the ability boundary."
Net profit of Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) in recent years (100 million yuan)
Li Zhenguo believes that Longji has always maintained a cautious decision-making state.
In 2019, Longji announced the expansion of production 17 times a year, which triggered a heated debate in the industry. At that time, he told the media, "until today, Longji is still cautious in expansion. If we take the aggressive strategy, Longji can expand production faster."
Prudence and expansion are not contradictory words in Longji's decision-making mechanism. The premise is to conduct a comprehensive analysis and deduction of the market environment and supporting resources. Avoiding inflation, putting an end to excessive debt expansion and maintaining calm and restraint in different situations are not only the enterprise style created by the rigorous and prudent character of Longji management, who is also born in the Department of physics, but also the result of learning from the failure lessons of photovoltaic enterprises that have collapsed such as Wuxi Suntech and Jiangxi Saiwei.
At the end of 2013, the production capacity of Longji monocrystalline silicon wafer reached 1.6gw, becoming the largest monocrystalline silicon wafer supplier in the world. Since 2014, it has started to intervene in downstream batteries and components. Li Zhenguo recalled that vertical downward extension was a helpless choice at first.
"At that time, we had been building capacity on the single crystal route, but the industry did not fully recognize the value of single crystal at that stage, and even hindered the development of this route. For example, in the Japanese photovoltaic market in 2012, the cost of polycrystalline modules was 60 yen per watt and single crystal modules was 90 yen per watt. In fact, the two costs were similar. Many downstream enterprises regarded single crystal as a high-end niche market, Selling expensive and earning more actually hinders the transmission of single crystal value to the terminal. " Aware of this problem, in 2013, Li Zhenguo "went door-to-door" to visit almost all major battery and module manufacturers in downstream China. "I said that diamond wire technology will soon mature, and the cost of monocrystalline silicon wafer will be greatly reduced in the next two or three years. You should focus on monocrystalline silicon, but many people ignore it."
I ate it all behind closed doors. No wonder, for the downstream manufacturers who laid out a large amount of production capacity in polycrystalline technology at that time, changing the route was tantamount to changing their own lives. In order to avoid further marginalization of single crystal, it is necessary to show the industry that single crystal can be "good and cheap". Since it can not convince the downstream, Longji is determined to build downstream production capacity and invest real gold and silver to "demonstrate" in person. In November 2014, Longji invested RMB 46.0955 million to acquire 85% equity of Zhejiang Leye Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. and became the controlling shareholder.
The original intention of longjile leaf is to speak for single crystal with a small-scale demonstration line. But the follow-up trend deviated from the original expectation.
Li Zhenguo recalled to surging news that at the beginning of its involvement in the downstream, Longji had little self built capacity and entrusted a large number of external processing. "By 2017, we had more than 30 component factories, and the batteries were mainly imported, all of which had problems. Most of the component factories were small and scattered, and the standards for quality control were not uniform, which affected the product reputation. We believe that we can do better than them in terms of cost and quality control. In the battery sector, there was a problem in the competitive pattern, and we supply to the European and American markets The futures attribute of component business and lock the price in advance, but we often encounter that the upstream battery manufacturers increase the price indiscriminately. After tossing for several times, we simply do it ourselves. "
This is the best embodiment of Longji's business philosophy of "no leading, no expansion of production, no neck jamming and no intervention".
To sum up, Longji's playing method is slow and fast: it is cautious or even conservative in decision-making, not confused by short-term interests or difficulties, and it is promoted rapidly in implementation. The new production capacity must be ahead of the industry, and the technology and cost advantages must be quickly locked with the leading production capacity. All technological transformation and investment must obtain economic benefits within a certain period of time.
However, with the rapid expansion of downstream business volume, Longji's vigorous execution style has aroused concerns of downstream battery and component enterprises: former suppliers have become competitors, and their own market share is facing to be eroded. "Do not take the lead, do not expand production", Yu Longji is rigorous, in downstream enterprises, is alert and hidden danger.
Li Zhenguo has his own views on this issue. "In 2016, I remember a roadshow in the United States to develop overseas component business. At that time, I met a very senior vice president of Citibank. He knew the photovoltaic industry very well and asked me a question, 'Longji used to make silicon wafers, but now it makes batteries and components downstream to compete with its own customers. What do you think?'
Li Zhenguo picked up his colleagues' Apple phone and told each other that there were a large number of Samsung components in the Apple phone, even its screen. "At that time, apple and Samsung were the biggest competitors in the global mobile phone market. If they could really bring value to customers, I think this cooperation and competition could coexist."
Thus, Longji has formed an integrated business model of almost the whole industry chain from monocrystalline silicon rod and silicon wafer to monocrystalline battery and components. In 2020, Longji will rank first in global component shipments and become the champion of both monocrystalline silicon wafers and components.
the excess theory is still valid, "we respect the market"
The price rise of photovoltaic industry chain in 2021 once again pushed Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) to the forefront of the storm.
At the beginning of 2021, the market price of polysilicon, as the basic raw material in the upstream of photovoltaic, was only 88000 yuan / ton, with the highest point of more than 270000 in the year. The crazy rise almost ran through the whole year and was transmitted to the whole photovoltaic industry chain, forming a series of rises in silicon wafers, cells and modules. The game, accusation and refutation between upstream and downstream are interspersed in the surging wave of price rise. The view that the shortage of silicon wafers is exacerbated by the sharp rise in the price of silicon wafers.
In fact, the surge in the overall price of the industrial chain has suppressed China's downstream installation boom in carbon neutral and the first year. Except for the silicon material enterprises that make a lot of money, the vast majority of enterprises are not the winners in the price rise tide.
Longji also suffered: when the price of silicon material rose, the silicon wafer link benefited from the lock-in of inventory and orders, but with the passage of time, the silicon material soared all the way, the time difference dividend gradually disappeared, the gross profit margin of silicon wafer decreased, and the overall operating rate was insufficient. On September 30, 2021, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) and other five component enterprises jointly issued a document saying that under the situation of soaring silicon prices, many signed component orders will fall into serious losses, and called on terminal enterprises to appropriately consider delaying the installation plan of the power station. Five enterprises said that the price of photovoltaic raw materials continued to rise in 2021. As of September 22, the price of single crystal compact had increased by 153% compared with that at the beginning of the year. The quotation of glass increased by 18.2% year-on-year in August and the quotation of adhesive film increased by 35% year-on-year in August. However, while the prices of all links of the industrial chain soared synchronously, the component prices remained stable throughout the year, only increased by about 9.1%.
"Under the global carbon neutral consensus, the market space is rapidly opened, but the industrial chain is not ready. Generally speaking, we think this (silicon price rise) It is also a law of the market. An unbalanced link leads to a rise in the market price of that link. When the investment income and profitability of this link increase significantly, it will attract more social forces to supplement the production capacity of this link, which itself is a normal cycle. " Li Zhenguo told surging news that the polysilicon price rise is short-term and will not exist for a long time. This round of polysilicon material shortage price rise and the glass shortage price rise in the fourth quarter of 2020 belong to two situations.
At that time, Longji and other six photovoltaic giant hair signed a joint letter, imploring relevant national departments to liberalize the restrictions on the capacity expansion of photovoltaic glass. "However, we are not so nervous about the polysilicon price rise this time. The higher the price rise, the stronger the power to rush in. Because the silicon material plant has a plant construction cycle, there will be sufficient supply at a certain time. I don't think we need to worry too much about this price fluctuation and leave it to the market for adjustment. We respect the market."
Li Zhenguo stressed that Longji has always adhered to the view that the shortage of things that people can make must be phased, and the surplus is the norm. From the perspective of the whole photovoltaic industry chain, except that the power station link has certain resource attributes, almost all others are manufacturing attributes. Although this set of guiding ideology has experienced challenges under the tide of rising prices, it is still established for a long time. "With the rapid growth of the photovoltaic industry, the imbalance of the industrial chain will often exist. In the future, Longji needs to strengthen some of its capabilities and improve its supply chain management capabilities."
After the replacement of monocrystalline silicon wafer to polycrystalline silicon wafer is accelerated, the gross profit margin of silicon wafer ranks first in the industrial chain and has attracted a large number of new forces of silicon wafer to "enter" in recent years. According to public data, the planned silicon wafer capacity of only five enterprises Wuxi Shangji Automation Co.Ltd(603185) , Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Gaojing Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) and Jiangsu Meike exceeds 180gw. The intervention of silicon chip upstarts has challenged the long-term and stable industry pattern led by Longji and central in recent five years. Based on the analysis of surging news by many industry observers, in the competition of silicon wafer, the advantages of new players lie in flexible materials, no burden of high price materials, advanced production equipment and high investment intensity. However, in terms of crystal drawing technology, production stability, yield and management, the old manufacturers have outstanding advantages. It is not easy for the new forces of silicon wafers to grab more market share from Longji and central.
As the market competition intensifies, Longji's established and long-term global market share target is unchanged: 45% - 50% for silicon wafer and 30% for components. "We are still confident in our R & D capability and the room for the decline of non silicon costs." Li Zhenguo said.
Take a further look. The biggest focus of the photovoltaic industry is not the soaring price of silicon, not the fighting between new and old silicon wafer enterprises, but the trend of battery technology.
The battery link is the main position of a new round of technical iteration. With the current mainstream p-type perc battery efficiency approaching the limit, the industry consensus is that n-type battery is the next generation battery technology that is most expected to replace p-type battery. Among them, TOPCON and hjt are the most typical, and their theoretical conversion efficiency is more than 28%. This is a major variable that will determine the industry pattern in the next few years. Some people in the industry even told surging news that this round of technology iteration will lead to an industry reshuffle no less tragic than the previous round of single polycrystalline dispute.
How Longji, the leader of the industry, makes a choice has attracted much attention. Which technical route can become the largest investment direction of Longji in the future? Li Zhenguo believes that "there is no definitive answer."
"Longji will not fix itself on a certain route. We seek the technology with the lowest cost and the lowest cost of kilowatt hour electricity. There are different progress and changes in different stages." Li Zhenguo said that the key is whether it can be realized at low cost in the process of industrialization. It is still unknown which technical route can go further from laboratory to mass production. "However, Longji is confident to realize mass production as soon as possible and commercialize mass production of a technical route as soon as possible."
In this regard, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) chairman Zhong Baoshen once told surging news that the reason why Longji's R & D investment is large is that any technical route needs to form a basic judgment and run out of results, behind which is an investment of about 600 million yuan. This includes the full set of hardware facilities of the new technology route and 3-4 years of operation and personnel costs.
"But I put in five kinds of technology routes. Finally, I may throw out four kinds and find the most potential technology. You can see that it has invested 600 million. In fact, there are other investments to accompany it." Zhong Baoshen said, "Longji never bet. First of all, we will make professional judgment on whether a technical route has research value, where is the ceiling, where is the space, where are the constraints, and how far can it go? Then we will pick out those we think are promising and can participate in the competition and start investing a lot to select the best seed players."
High intensity R & D investment is regarded by Longji as the only rule to maintain a leading position in the competitive photovoltaic market. According to the annual report, in 2020, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) R & D investment reached 2.592 billion yuan, accounting for 4.75% of revenue, and the non silicon cost was further reduced. Among them, the average unit non silicon cost of crystal pulling link decreased by 9.98% year-on-year, and the average unit non silicon cost of slicing link decreased by 10.82% year-on-year. Citing the research data of PV tech, a third-party industry organization, Li Zhenguo said that since 2017, Longji has become the photovoltaic manufacturing enterprise with the largest R & D investment in the world, even exceeding the sum of the R & D investment of the top two photovoltaic enterprises in the United States.
has Longji changed?
Hydrogen energy is the "second battlefield" actively developed by Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) in recent years.
At the end of 2018 and 2019, Li Zhenguo attended the United Nations Climate Conference twice, one in Poland and the other in Spain. He expressed the same idea in his speech: "photovoltaic plus energy storage will become the ultimate energy solution for mankind". Hydrogen energy has become another carbon neutralization puzzle selected by Longji after photovoltaic.
"In the context of carbon neutralization and energy transformation, there may be three tracks. The first track is primary clean energy dominated by photovoltaic. Three or four years ago, I predicted that the annual installed capacity of photovoltaic in the world would reach 1000gw in 2030. Many people think I am too radical, but from the Perspective of carbon neutralization, this scale is not enough. We think that new energy will be needed every year by then The installed capacity of photovoltaic is 1500gw-2000gw, which can be installed continuously for 30 years to really support the needs of energy transformation. " Li Zhenguo told surging news that the second track is energy to make up for the intermittent defects of renewable energy, such as chemical energy storage. The third track is the introduction of green hydrogen.
When talking about the prospect of hydrogen energy, he showed another rigorous side, "From the analysis of each link of the hydrogen industry chain, we believe that the production of green hydrogen from electrolytic water is deterministic, so we have the ability to establish hydrogen production equipment and services. However, there is still uncertainty about the direction of downstream application after obtaining green hydrogen. In the application of hydrogen, we maintain our research ability."
Longji company has reached the age o
