"Core shortage" and "price rise" run through the electronic industry in 2021. Some of them even increased by more than 300 times. In the capital market, the dividends brought by the rising price tide have already been realized. It is generally expected that the shortage will not be alleviated until the second half of 2022, when the chip price may decline.
2022 may be a watershed for the semiconductor industry.
Some companies previously subject to production capacity, when the "seal" of production capacity is lifted, they get more quality real growth through the increase of chip sales. The other part of semiconductor companies that rise solely by rising prices will probably return to the origin of stock prices. "When the tide receded, who was swimming naked?" This is a problem that all semiconductor investors need to study in 2022.
who raised the price in 2021?
In fact, this round of price increases has prominent structural characteristics, not an all-round general rise.
According to the statistics of electronic engineering album, the types of components in short supply in 2021 include MCU, power management chip and MOSFET. At the same time, due to fierce competition or weak demand in some segments, the price of products has not increased. Typical products include TWS headset Bluetooth audio chip, off screen fingerprint identification chip, etc.
Data source: Electronic Engineering album, interface news research department
Gross profit margin is also an important indicator to observe the price rise of semiconductor enterprises, which can reflect the price rise to a certain extent.
According to the data of the third quarter of 2021, excluding the 52 A-share semiconductor enterprises focusing on materials, manufacturing and packaging and testing OEM, the gross profit margin increased by 40 and decreased by 12 compared with the same period of the previous year. Among them, Shenzhen Sunmoon Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688699) (688699. SH), Fine Made Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(300671) (300671. SZ), Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) (688368. SH), Dongxin shares (688110. SH), Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) (688766. SH), etc. the gross profit margin of Fine Made Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(300671) and Shenzhen Sunmoon Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688699) increased by more than 40 percentage points.
Source: interface news research department
The main products of Shenzhen Sunmoon Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688699) , Fine Made Microelectronics Group Co.Ltd(300671) and Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) are led driver chips. The mature 8-inch silicon wafer process adopted by the chip is the most scarce capacity at present. Under the condition that things are rare and expensive, LED driver chips that were not high-end before have become the "price king".
In addition, China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) (688396. SH), Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) (600460. SH) and other IDM (vertical integrated manufacturing) enterprises have certain advantages under the background of current capacity shortage.
production capacity in the first half of 2022
2022 is the inflection point of chip supply from tight to loose. Therefore, the first half of 2022 is still the year when those who have wafer capacity win the world; By the second half of 2022, the focus will gradually shift to the prosperity and competition pattern of chip sub industries.
In the context of capacity shortage, inventory and prepayment are important highlights. Modern enterprise management generally pursues low inventory and as little advance payment as possible to achieve high turnover, but this logic is broken under the shortage of production capacity. The production capacity and inventory booked in advance by chip design companies will become the lifeline of enterprise safe operation.
In the past, wafer foundry was a buyer's market, and chip design enterprises usually did not need to lock in production capacity through a large amount of prepayment, so the prepayment base of enterprises was low at the end of September 2020. According to the third quarterly report of 2021, the prepayments of some chip design enterprises have increased significantly. The companies with a year-on-year increase of more than 20 times have Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) (603986. SH), Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) , Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) (300327. SZ) and Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) (603893. SH). Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) the prepayment at the end of September 2020 was 1.69 million yuan. By the end of September 2021, the prepayment had increased to 62.36 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of nearly 36 times.
Source: interface news research department
Adding inventory and prepayment can reflect the stock situation of semiconductor enterprises to a certain extent, which determines the performance that can be released in the short term.
The inventory plus prepayment of Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) (688099. SH), 3Peak Incorporated(688536) (688536. SH) and other companies in the third quarter of 2021 increased significantly compared with the same period of last year, which also means that the supply of follow-up products of the company is more guaranteed.
Source: interface news research department
Companies such as Ingenic Semiconductor Co.Ltd(300223) (300223. SZ) and Ninestar Corporation(002180) (002180. SZ) with large growth this year have experienced a decline in inventory and prepayment compared with the same period last year, which means that the supply chain of such companies is relatively tight and the growth potential in the next quarter may be limited.
Source: interface news research department
be alert to the plate where the prosperity may decline significantly
In the storage field, the market has been divided on the judgment of future prosperity.
Previously, among the ten A-share chip companies with the largest price increase listed in this paper, Dongxin and Puya Semiconductor (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688766) are memory chip manufacturers.
According to the industry report issued by Morgan Stanley in October 2021, the price of NOR flash is likely to peak in the fourth quarter of 2021 and may fall in the first quarter of 2022. In December, the supply chain came out that the recent NOR Flash started to negotiate the first quarter contract price in 2022. The price of NOR Flash of Wang Hong, a NOR Flash manufacturer in Taiwan, China, is expected to further increase to 5~10%.
The report of trendforce, a market research organization, pointed out that in the first quarter of 2022, when the bit output of Samsung, Changjiang storage, SK Hynix and Intel is relatively positive, the oversupply of NAND flash will be more obvious. The bit output will increase by 6% in the quarter, and the price is expected to fall by about 10 ~ 15% in the quarter. The price of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) began to reverse in July. At present, the price is lower than the contract price. At present, the DRAM price is still downward. It is estimated that the DRAM price will fall by 20% to 30% in 2022.
In addition, the price of LED chips did not rise madly before.
The downstream enterprise Unilumin Group Co.Ltd(300232) (300232. SZ) of LED driver chip said in the investigation of the organization, "The impact of raw material price increase on the company is mainly concentrated in the first half of 2021. From the data of the third quarter, the driving IC price has decreased a lot compared with the second quarter. It is expected that the crazy market rhythm driving IC has passed and is gradually returning to rationality and normality. Especially next year, after the capacity of the upstream wafer foundry rises, it can not only effectively improve the shortage situation, but also may be surplus. ”
cloud computing, Internet of things and new energy vehicles
Looking forward to 2022, cloud computing, Internet of things and new energy vehicles will be the main downstream applications to promote the development of the semiconductor industry.
A-share semiconductor companies involved in cloud computing are relatively few. The memory interface chip of Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) (688008. SH) is mainly used for cloud computing servers. There are opportunities for improvement in the prosperity of the industry. In 2021, the sales volume of DDR4 memory interface chip declined because it entered the end of the product life cycle. In 2022, under the background that Intel is about to launch ddr5 server CPU and Meguiar and other storage giants are about to launch ddr5 memory samples, ddr5 memory will enter the mass shipment stage and become the mainstream product. As a new product, ddr5 memory interface chip of Montage Technology Co.Ltd(688008) is expected to exceed DDR4 memory interface chip in price and gross margin.
MCU chips are mainly used in the field of Internet of things. MCU field was generally subject to capacity in the third quarter. Among A-share companies with MCU as the main business, except Sino Wealth Electronic Ltd(300327) , the revenue decreased month on month in the third quarter of 2021. Affected by this, MCU's share price also generally ushered in adjustment in the third quarter.
Source: interface news research department
By the second half of 2022, after the chip capacity is relieved, the supply of MCU will be greatly boosted. At that time, the growth rate of MCU company may have an accelerated inflection point.
In the field of IGBT or SiC power devices corresponding to new energy vehicles, 2021 has ushered in a high prospect. In 2022, with the easing of production capacity, vehicle sales will have a large elastic growth, and the industrial prosperity will continue.
Chen Dongpo, deputy general manager of Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) (600703. SH), predicts that in 2023-2024, 80-90% or even 100% of long range models will be introduced into SiC devices in 2023-2024; For models with a range of 400-500km, SiC is expected to be introduced after 2024, and the penetration rate will reach about 40%; For vehicles with a range of less than 400 km, it is expected that SiC will gradually follow up after 2025, and the overall penetration rate is estimated to be about 10%. At present, companies in the field of IGBT or SiC with A-share layout include Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) (603290. SH), China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) (688396. SH), Sanan Optoelectronics Co.Ltd(600703) (600703. SH), Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) (688187. SH). Under the crazy speculation of the new energy concept, the valuation is generally high, and there are still investment opportunities after the valuation is digested.
(interface News)
