In recent months, the ranking of “ten thousand gold for bidding and insurance”, which has been regarded as a treasure by investors, has been rewritten again – the former position of “fangmao” China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) in the Jianghu has been officially replaced by Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) in the past.
On March 11, 2022, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) decreased by 0.72% and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) increased by 0.43%. So far, the latest market value of China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) was 193563 billion yuan, which was officially surpassed by Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) which was pressed all the way. The latest market value of the latter was 194278 billion yuan.
In the first quarter of 2022, when the “tone” of real estate regulation was gradually relaxed and the “steady growth” initiative continued to work, the market value of the former “first brother” of real estate did not increase but decreased, and the premium of the industry leader also disappeared, which also hurt many fund managers with heavy positions in the stock.
“It was not easy to catch a new energy bull stock last year. Unexpectedly, all the profits were eaten up by a real estate stock!” A private placement boss of Vanke, a heavy warehouse, admitted to the associated press that they were under great pressure, but he always believed that the “policy bottom” came out and the “market bottom” would not be too far away.
“Fangmao” status quietly changed
Rome wasn’t built in a day.
As early as July and August 2021, when the “tone” of real estate regulation policy gradually loosened, the A-share real estate sector began to rebound round after round, and among them, the bottom of the share price of “Zhaobao Wanjin” was also rising step by step.
However, careful investors will find that in each round of rebound and correction, the trend of China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) which is the leader is always weaker than Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and Gemdale Corporation(600383) and China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , so China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) is officially surpassed by Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) .
Poly Real estate, for example, rebounded to 17.61 yuan from the lowest point of 9.03 yuan on August 2, 2021. Even after the recent correction, its latest share price was still 16.23 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 79.73%.
In contrast, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , after seeing the stage low of 18.84 yuan on July 27, 2021, it rebounded to 22.85 yuan and then retreated to 17.52 yuan. Later, with the boost of “steady growth”, the stock price rebounded to 23.09 yuan and then retreated to 16.02 yuan, with a cumulative increase of – 14.97%.
On the one hand, the former king fell by 15% against the trend, and on the other hand, the followers strongly pursued 80%. Under the “one goes up and one goes up” of the two stock prices, there was a market value gap of nearly 100 billion between the two. In this way, under the pressure of the latter, the position of the “first brother” of real estate also quietly changed hands.
From the perspective of financial data, by the end of the third quarter of 2021, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) ‘s total operating revenue (271.5 billion yuan and 138.5 billion yuan respectively) and net profit attributable to parent company (16.69 billion yuan and 13.58 billion yuan respectively) were also significantly stronger than the latter.
Just like the contrast between pig prices and pork stocks, the speculation logic of “I expected your expectations” of mainstream funds in the current market is also reflected incisively and vividly in real estate stocks. Although the lagging financial data still seem to be high and low, the expected difference between the two is gradually widening.
On March 12, some investors analyzed and said, “Vanke’s biggest problem is a + H, because there is no big capital to have confidence in the simultaneous rise of a + h. In addition, the Hong Kong stock crash since February 11 has obscured the stable growth preference funds previously arranged in China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and directly conceded defeat and left the market.”
“Love hate trade-offs” of fund managers
In the past, the decline of the king was obvious, and the followers counter attacked and ascended the throne – on the surface, the change in the internal ranking of “Zhaobao Wanjin” is a game between all market participants on their share prices; From behind, it is the “love hate trade-off” of institutional investors holding heavy money.
From the perspective of the top ten heavy positions of Han Wenqiang, the fund manager of Jingshun Great Wall, he can be described as a loyal supporter of “ten thousand gold” in the past one or two years when growth track stocks have become popular. However, when it comes to the ranking of China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) in recent quarters, it has been stable and declining.
As early as the second quarter of 2021, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) was regarded as the number one heavy position stock by Han Wenqiang, and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and Gemdale Corporation(600383) only ranked third and eighth; By the third quarter of 2021, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) and Gemdale Corporation(600383) had become the top two heavyweight stocks, and China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ranked third.
A quarter later, in the fourth quarter of 2021, Han Wenqiang loved “Zhaobao Wanjin” to the extreme. However, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ‘s position dropped another place to become the fourth heavyweight stock. The top three heavyweight stocks are Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) and Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) .
“In the fourth quarter, the positions were fully concentrated in the real estate and real estate industry chain. Under the background of historical undervaluation, low position and friendly policy shift, we believe that the real estate companies with improved income concentration have ushered in the best investment opportunities in the past 10 years.” Han Wenqiang said in the four seasons.
Some people are proud, others are frustrated. Under the force of the steady growth policy, although the real estate sector has ushered in a good “valuation repair market”, if the fund manager bet on the wrong “alpha”, he may also regret the loss of the whole “beta”.
“Our investment in the real estate sector in the past year has been very unsuccessful… It’s very wrong. Not only the industry judgment is wrong, but also the choice of individual stocks is wrong!” Not long ago, a private placement boss who insisted on “reverse investment” issued a document to “admit his mistake”.
In fact, the private placement boss also did a lot of quantitative research and comparative analysis, and finally chose “a leading company”. Although the changes in the fundamentals of the industry were in line with expectations, they were surprised by the final trend of the stock price.
“A leading company” means China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) He also revealed that “frankly speaking, if we buy several other leading companies in the real estate industry, although the result is also average, it will still be much better than the performance of holding companies”.
Why did the leading premium of China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) disappear? After a lot of experience, he came to the conclusion that although it still has the foundation of standardized management, solid assets and stable finance, it still lacks a little “feelings” and the “feelings” of industry leaders who have the courage to take responsibility.
In his opinion, the disappearance of “premium” reflects the lack of “feelings” – no company can completely get rid of the industry cycle, but without “feelings” leaders, it may eventually slide to mediocrity, but I don’t hope this is its ultimate destiny.
