What kind of agricultural materials are most in demand now? The answer is potassium fertilizer.
According to the data of Baichuan information, since March this year, as the main variety of potassium fertilizer, the price of potassium chloride in China has exceeded 4000 yuan per ton, reaching 4200 yuan / ton, up 3.53% from last week, 20.86% from last month, and more than 106% from the same period last year.
Price trend of potassium chloride in China
Source: Baichuan Yingfu
In fact, since the second half of last year, potash fertilizer has ended the 12-year downturn and the boom has been rising. Boosted by the rising volume and price of main products, the profits of potash listed companies that have announced their performance in 2021 have increased significantly. On the 11th, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) disclosed the performance express, which has the first production capacity of potassium chloride in China. The net profit of the company last year reached 4.2 billion yuan, doubling year-on-year.
"Due to the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine and the strong demand for spring ploughing, there is a shortage of spot supply of potassium fertilizer in the Chinese market. Our orders are saturated and the supply of products is in short supply." On the 11th, the person in charge of a listed company producing potash fertilizer told the Shanghai Securities News.
market supply: spot "in short supply"
"At present, the spot of potash fertilizer can only be described as' in short supply '. The official quotation of potassium chloride of a large Chinese factory is less than 4000 yuan per ton, but the supply is small, and the actual transaction price on the market is about 500 yuan higher. The small manufacturers producing potash fertilizer basically have no inventory, and there are few spot stocks available on the market." On the afternoon of November 11, a fertilizer dealer in North China told reporters.
What is the reason for the shortage and high price of potash fertilizer this spring?
It is understood that potassium is a scarce resource in China. China's annual demand for potash fertilizer is about 17 million tons, more than 50% of which needs to be imported. In addition, China's independent supply of potash fertilizer has continued to decline in recent years, further increasing the dependence on foreign imports.
\u3000\u3000 "Russia, Belarus and Canada are the world's top three producers of potash fertilizer. In the first 11 months of last year, 23% of China's potassium chloride was imported from Belarus. The situation in Russia and Ukraine has caused many uncertainties in the import of potash fertilizer. At present, Russia has decided to suspend the export of chemical fertilizer. From June to August last year, the United States and the European Union successively announced sanctions on the export of potash fertilizer from Belarus. On the current implementation According to the situation, as of January 12 this year, Lithuania has announced the termination of the transportation agreement between its state-owned railway company and belaruskali, the state-owned potash fertilizer producer in Belarus. Belarus potash fertilizer is mainly transported through Lithuanian ports and railways. In the case of interruption of transportation in Lithuania, Belarus potash fertilizer has not found an alternative in the short term. " Recently, the person in charge of a listed company producing potash fertilizer in Northwest China told reporters.
According to Baichuan information monitoring, in terms of imported potassium, there are few arrivals in the port, large traders continue to stop selling, there are few spot goods in circulation in the market, and the spot quotation continues to push up. Affected by the epidemic, the import volume of border trade ports is limited, the market inventory is tight, the market price is strong, and there is basically no available spot, and the transaction order is mainly negotiated. Among them, the Northeast market price is relatively high, and the quotation of high-end products is more than 5200 yuan / ton.
The potash import contract with Canada has been signed by the potash import group for a long time in 2022. Industry insiders believe that even if the large contract price is determined, according to the supply cycle, Canadian potash fertilizer will provide new supply as soon as April this year.
In terms of domestic potassium chloride, the early maintenance manufacturers have basically returned to normal production, and a small number have not started, but the manufacturer's inventory remains low and the supply is in short supply.
Industry insiders believe that the current spot supply of potassium chloride in the market may be further tight. It is expected that the transaction price will remain high in the near future and still have an upward trend.
listed companies: full production, expansion, order saturation
At present, the large-scale potash fertilizer production enterprises in A-share listed companies include Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Zangger mining, Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) , etc. Recently, a number of securities companies believe in the research report that under the background of high potassium fertilizer prices, the production costs of leading enterprises are basically stable, and the upward industry cycle is expected to bring huge profit growth to relevant companies.
On March 11, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) disclosed the performance express. In 2021, the company realized a net profit of 4.268 billion yuan attributable to shareholders of listed companies, an increase of 109.27% year-on-year. The company's main products are potassium chloride and lithium carbonate, of which potassium chloride accounts for a high proportion of revenue. The company said that during the reporting period, the production and sales of potassium chloride and lithium carbonate were stable. Affected by the rise of product market prices, the company's operating performance increased significantly compared with the same period of last year.
"After the Spring Festival this year, the supply of potash fertilizer market is relatively tight, and the production and sales of potassium chloride of the company are booming." On the 11th, a source close to Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) told reporters that many provinces and cities in China have entered the spring ploughing season, and the demand of downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers is strong. At present, all production lines of the company's potassium fertilizer production workshop are operating at full capacity.
According to the data disclosed by the company's official wechat, as of the end of February, the company's Potassium Fertilizer Branch had produced 570000 tons of potassium fertilizer, an increase of 200000 tons over the same period last year.
On March 10, the company said on the investor interaction platform that as a leading enterprise in China's potassium fertilizer industry, the sales price of potassium chloride plays an important role in guiding and leading the market. The company takes ensuring the stable supply of agricultural production as its own responsibility, and the pricing of potassium chloride products of the company comprehensively considers all factors, According to market changes.
On the 11th, the reporter learned from Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) that at present, the company's potassium chloride orders are saturated and the market is in short supply. The company said it was actively expanding its production capacity. In November last year, the company's potassium chloride production capacity had been increased to 1 million tons. In the future, the production capacity will be expanded to 3 million tons.
The performance forecast disclosed by the company previously shows that the company's profit in 2021 is expected to be about 830930 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.92-14.6 times; Deduct non net profit of 219319 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9-68.78 times.
The company said that the main reason for the sharp rise in performance was that the company focused on the core business of potash fertilizer and optimized the sales strategy around the adjustment of business development strategy. At the same time, the international price of potash fertilizer increased and the sales of potash fertilizer products increased compared with the same period of last year.
On February 16 this year, the company announced that it had signed the strategic agreement on ensuring supply of spring ploughing in 2022 with Zhongnong group. The relevant person in charge of the company once told reporters that at present, the price of agricultural materials is still at a high level, and the agricultural materials industry has the responsibility to work together to make a positive contribution to winning the battle of ensuring the supply and price stability of agricultural materials for spring farming. The company and Zhongnong holdings have reached a collaborative cooperation intention on multiple products, jointly open up the industrial chain, improve the efficiency of spring ploughing and supply guarantee, and give priority to supply guarantee under the same conditions.
According to the above person in charge, the company owns 35 square kilometers of potassium salt mine in Laos, which is rich in mineral resources. The total reserves of potassium salt mine are 1.002 billion tons, converted into 152 million tons of pure potassium chloride. According to China's needs, 500000 tons of potash fertilizer can be sold to China this year. After the completion of 3 million tons / year overseas production base in the next year, two-thirds of the output can feed China according to China's needs and escort China's food production safety.
Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) is a dual main industry listed company mainly engaged in steel structure and potash fertilizer business. As one of the first Chinese enterprises to deploy potash fertilizer business overseas, the company is also actively making use of the advantages of potash resources in Laos to actively expand production capacity.
Recently, the company said on the investor interaction platform that the existing capacity of potassium chloride of Lao Kaiyuan, a wholly-owned subsidiary, is 500000 tons / year. The first phase of Laos Kaiyuan 1.5 million ton potassium chloride expansion project (500000 tons) has been fully started on December 31, 2021, and the construction period of the project is about 1-1.5 years.
