With the rise of local temperatures, the demand of the refrigeration market is about to increase, and the refrigerant industry has attracted people's attention again.
A senior industry source in Shandong told the financial associated press that at present, the refrigerant industry is about to enter the peak season, the downstream demand begins to grow gradually, and the refrigerant products are expected to rise both in volume and price. At the same time, with the clearing of small and medium-sized production capacity, leading refrigerant enterprises are expected to fully benefit from this round of industrial dividends.
In an interview with reporters, Wang Xinyue, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang information, said that the demand of the refrigerant industry before and after the Spring Festival was briefly weak. Since February, the product price has fallen to a certain extent, and the overall profit of the industry is limited, but the leading enterprises still have a certain profit space by virtue of their scale advantages. In March, downstream enterprises began to replenish one after another, industry orders began, and the overall market of refrigerant market is expected to rebound.
The reporter interviewed several companies related to the refrigerant industry and learned that at present, Chinese orders for refrigerants have rebounded slightly, the recovery of export tax rebate policy has significantly increased overseas orders, and most enterprises have maintained a high operating rate.
gradual release of demand outside China
Refrigerant (fluorine refrigerant) is one of the most important products of fluorine chemical industry. The downstream demand is mainly air conditioning (including automobile), industrial and commercial refrigeration, accounting for more than 80%. Since the beginning of this year, the short-term weakness of domestic and foreign trade demand has led to a short-term price drop in the refrigerant market, which has been rising all the way in the early stage.
According to the consulting data of Zhuo Chuang, the latest market price of the second generation refrigerant R22 is 16900 yuan / ton, which is 400 yuan / ton lower than that in early February; The latest market prices of the third generation refrigerants R32 and R134a were 15000 yuan / ton and 24000 yuan / ton respectively, down 500 yuan / ton and 1200 yuan / ton respectively compared with the prices at the beginning of February.
Wang Xinyue said that due to the lack of downstream demand in winter, dealers will also prepare goods before the Spring Festival, so there will usually be a relatively weak period in the refrigerant industry before and after the Spring Festival. In addition, this year is the last year of the designated benchmark line of the third generation refrigerant quota, and some production enterprises still increase production in order to compete for the future production quota, As a result, the refrigerant market in February was oversupplied, and the overall market fell.
As the temperature warms up, the downstream demand for refrigerant begins to recover. According to relevant data, in January this year, the sales volume of China's air conditioning industry was about 13.31 million units, down about 5% year-on-year. However, since March, China's air conditioning industry has started to produce large quantities, and the output has increased by 3.1% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the domestic output has increased by 5% compared with the sales volume in the same period last year, and the export output has increased by 14% compared with the sales volume in the same period last year.
At the same time, the overseas demand of the refrigerant industry has also increased significantly with the support of relevant policies. It is reported that in January last year, the state adjusted the export tax rules, resulting in the failure of normal tax rebate for some types of refrigerants. Recently, the State Administration of Taxation has re publicized the export tax rebate of refrigerant products, and the tax rebate of all types of refrigerants has returned to normal.
Wang Xinyue said that the recovery of tax rebate has significantly increased the export orders of refrigerant enterprises, and the orders of domestic trade have also rebounded slightly. With the good export orientation and the impact of the traditional peak season in the domestic trade market, it is expected that the market price of refrigerant will gradually rise.
Executives of a listed company in China's refrigerant industry told reporters that at present, the quota competition for the three generations of refrigerants has not been completely ended, and the operating rates of refrigerant enterprises are generally high. The price drop in February has squeezed the company's profits to a certain extent, but with the arrival of the market in the peak season, the profit space of enterprises will also be restored.
leading enterprises fully benefited
Although the refrigerant industry gradually stepped out of the bottom of the industry last year, the price of its main raw materials also rose sharply.
According to the operating data released by Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) ( Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) . SH), the average price of the company's refrigerant products reached RMB 19200 / ton in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 41.58%. However, the annual price of its main raw material tetrachloroethane increased by 84.44%, the annual price of benzene increased by 76.73%, the annual price of calcium carbide increased by 58.52%, and the prices of other methanol, industrial salt and hydrogen fluoride also increased to varying degrees.
Wang Xinyue said that in the case of high raw material prices, the overall profitability of the refrigerant industry is not high, especially the third generation refrigerant. Many enterprises have little profit space, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are forced to stop production.
The above-mentioned business people also told reporters that in the case of large-scale expansion of refrigerant head enterprises, the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises has been seriously squeezed, while head enterprises have not only grabbed a higher market share, but also made a lot of profits by virtue of their advantages of scale and industrial chain integration.
The performance data of relevant listed companies also confirmed the above statement of the person.
According to the announcement, Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) 2021 is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.01-1.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 959% - 1148% Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) ( Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) . SH) the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 470580 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 111.86% - 161.44% Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co.Ltd(605020) ( Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co.Ltd(605020) . SH) in 2021, it is expected to realize a net profit of 242292 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 201.10% to 263.31%.
The aforementioned industry insiders said that the production competition of refrigerant head enterprises has come to an end, and the small and medium-sized production capacity has been basically cleared. With the advent of the traditional peak season and the continuous increase of export demand, the supply and demand pattern of the refrigerant industry will improve in the future, and the price center of products is expected to rise significantly, The leading enterprises that have made a lot of money are also expected to seize the opportunity to grab richer industrial dividends.
