The truth is cruel...
2021 officially passed. Reviewing and summarizing in A-Shares is a common after-school assignment for 190 million shareholders.
As of December 31, wind data showed that there were 4685 stocks normally traded in the two cities, and 2868 stocks recorded positive returns throughout the year, accounting for 61.21%. After excluding new shares, "the best stock" was Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) won with an increase of more than 5.6 times. On the other hand, 1815 stocks fell, accounting for 38.74%. The worst stocks of were Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) and China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) , with a decline of more than 70%.
Although more than 60% of individual stocks rose this year, the overall performance is not ideal. The median annual increase of stocks in the two cities was 8.59%, and the average increase of 2539 stock funds was only 5.36%. It can be seen from the data that it is not low for investors to make money this year.
Recently, a shareholder named he Shengyi posted a post. This year, he borrowed money to speculate in stocks. There was a huge loss of 500000, leaving 129000. He burst out of remorse, infected many investors and resonated. "Originally, after middle-aged unemployment, the family lost a source of income. I wanted to make a fortune through the stock market. Unexpectedly, it became a burden to the family and a laughing stock for relatives!" He Shengyi said in his post.
Coincidentally, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) former chief economist Jiang Chao, the first fund of the transformation fund manager, was exposed to suffer huge losses. Wind shows that since the establishment of the fund on April 12, 2021, as of December 27, the net value of Zhongtai supernova 1 collective asset management plan has decreased by 17.04%. Some netizens said that this is "the difference between theory and practice".
You know, Jiang Chao is a "veteran" in the field of securities investment and research and a doctor of economics from Tsinghua University. Before joining China Thailand asset management, he served as deputy director, chief economist and chief macro bond analyst of Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) Research Institute. In his 15 years of macro and bond research career, he won the "top" of new wealth selection for many times.
From experts to ordinary investors, many people have failed to escape losses, so is there a "profit password" in the stock market? This paper will find out the "truth" of some stock markets from the changes of bull and bear stocks in recent two years.
Four big turns of 2021
For many investors, 2021 will undoubtedly be a very difficult year. The global epidemic situation is volatile, the macroeconomic situation is complicated, the international political and economic game is changeable, and China's foreign policies are frequent, which have brought unprecedented difficulties and challenges to investment.
But looking back on 2021, there is a general trend change compared with the stock market in 2020.
1. CSI 300 vs CSI 1000
The CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indexes have always been regarded as important stock indexes in the A-share market. At the same time, they are also regarded as the benchmark indexes of their products by many Chinese fund institutions. Among them, the CSI 300 index is composed of 300 stocks with large market value and good liquidity in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, which comprehensively reflects the overall performance of listed stock prices in China's A-share market; The CSI 1000 index is composed of 1000 stocks with small scale and good liquidity after excluding the components of the CSI 800 index from all a shares, which comprehensively reflects the stock price performance of a number of small market capitalization companies in China's A-share market.
In 2020, the CSI 300 index closed up 27.21% and the CSI 1000 rose 19.39%. Overall, A-Shares showed a general upward trend in 2020, and large cap stocks beat small and medium cap stocks, but both large cap stocks and small and medium cap stocks performed well.
But the market in 2021 is very different. As of December 30, the cumulative decline of CSI 300 was 5.56%; On the contrary, the CSI 1000 rose by 19.23%. It can be seen that the overall differentiation of the A-share market is serious this year, and large cap stocks and small and medium cap stocks have gone out of a very different market.
If we do not adjust the general direction in time and continue to pursue the idea of "taking greatness as beauty" in 2020, the income this year will easily fall to the bottom.
2, "Mao index" vs "Ning combination"
From the perspective of institutions, the most powerful formation of A-Shares can be roughly divided into "Mao index" and "Ning combination".
Mao index is composed of leading companies in various industries, such as "Yao Mao" Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , "Che Mao" Byd Company Limited(002594) , "sauce Mao" Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , "duty-free Mao" China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , "machinery Mao" Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) and so on, basically including the largest and strongest companies in major A-share industries.
In 2020, most of these companies have doubled the market, cooperated with the brand strength, and once became the "faith" of shareholders. However, this year's wind Mao index fell by 4.44% as of December 31, significantly underperforming the market, which directly "collapsed the faith" of many investors.
On the other hand, the "Ning portfolio" was born in 2021, mainly including some leading companies in high growth industries such as new energy and semiconductors. Before the end of November this year, most of the constituent stocks rose very high, such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) rose 123%, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) rose nearly 100%, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) rose 79%, etc. However, under the profit stopping strategy at the end of recent years, the constituent stocks of Nanjing index also experienced a considerable correction. In addition, the poor performance of individual stocks such as medical beauty, innovative drugs and small household appliances, which are the same as Ning index, also dragged down the performance of the index.
Overall, year to date, "Mao index" has decreased by 4.44%, while "Ning portfolio" has increased by 40.98%.
Obviously, the new energy and semiconductor concepts represented by "Ning combination" are the biggest winners this year. Those who shouted "those who get the Mao index get the world" last year were ruthlessly beaten in the face this year.
The investment direction of the stock market turned sharply in 2021, resulting in the short-term opposition of investment styles, which is particularly obvious in the fund report card.
According to wind data, as of December 31, the average increase of 2539 equity funds was only 5.36%. Qianhai Kaiyuan public utility (005669) had the highest profit of 116.68%, and Penghua Zhongzheng Hong Kong stock connect medical and health comprehensive ETF (513700) had the largest loss of 33.51%, with a gap of more than 150%. in terms of investment style, the former mainly invests in new energy and the latter mainly invests in medicine. It can be seen that once the wrong track is selected, the income gap will widen instantly.
3. How are n-times shares refined
Every shareholder's dream is to buy n-times and let the profits soar. What are the characteristics of n-times shares in the past two years?
In 2020, the annual growth of Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) , Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) , Intco Medical Technology Co.Ltd(300677) is more than 10 times. The concept plates distributed by the top ten gainers are relatively concentrated, most of which are high-precision manufacturing related industries such as medical devices, semiconductors and power equipment.
In 2020, because of the extreme events brought by the epidemic, A-Shares fell sharply after the new year, US stocks experienced unprecedented four consecutive circuit breakers, and the price of crude oil futures fell to negative value for the first time in the history. However, under extreme events, it has contributed to the rare group behavior of Chinese institutions, foreign investors and retail investors, but opened the ceiling of bull stocks. if you give a keyword to this year's stock market investment style, it is "holding together".
By 2021, the group atmosphere is obviously loose. Due to various factors, the camp of the organization has changed greatly. From the top ten gainers list, the head increase is far lower than that in 2020, with the highest increase of 7.7 times that of Jilin Carbon valley. However, the stock was originally the new third board, with dividend overweight listed on the Beijing stock exchange. if the individual stocks of Beijing stock exchange are excluded, the maximum increase is 5.5 times of Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) . from the concept plate of the top ten bull stocks, it can be said that a hundred flowers bloom without obvious tendency.
This year, there were fewer extreme events in China, and more was the improvement of the financial system, such as the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange, the full implementation of the stock registration system and so on. It is worth mentioning that due to the economic recovery outside China, the global power consumption has increased greatly. if you give a keyword to this year's stock market investment style, it is "energy".
In addition, interestingly, the increase of the index in 2021 is greatly reduced compared with that in 2020, but this year, the number of n-times stocks (the highest price is more than 3 times the lowest price) is the highest in recent five years, accounting for 7.94%.
there is a misunderstanding about investment. Many people believe that doubling stocks is usually just a short-term speculation of hot money, and it will fall when it rises.
but the "truth" is that multiple bull stocks are often institutional behavior and last for a long time.
Open source securities conducted a group of research. 362 n-times shares were divided into three groups according to the highest increase in the year (the first group was the highest increase group). It was found that the shareholding proportion of institutional investors increased the most and that of individual investors decreased the most. It can be seen that in the shaping of bull stocks, institutions push up the stock price through continuous fund-raising.
The above analysis report also counts the characteristics of the style factors of big bull stocks. The conclusion of is that they mostly focus on the style of high elasticity, high valuation, high debt, low profit, high turnover, high volatility and small market value.
4 what are the characteristics of "stepping on thunder stocks"?
In the process of stock speculation, looking for the trend plate is everyone's expectation, but we should also be vigilant against the risk of "stepping on thunder". As mentioned at the beginning of the article, he Shengyi's so-called undervalued stock Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) was greatly lost by 30%, which was also the hardest blow to defeat him.
Looking back on 2020, of the ten stocks with the largest decline in the whole year, 9 were st stocks with major fundamental problems, mainly distributed in clothing, home textiles and medical devices.
In 2021, the biggest change is that among the top ten declining stocks, there are only 4 st stocks, which is half lower than that of the previous year. Education, real estate development, aquaculture and diversified finance are emerging in the plate.
From the plates to which these "stepping on thunder stocks" belong this year, we can roughly know the corresponding events: the great shift in the education and training industry brought by the "double reduction" policy, the correction of the real estate industry under the "no speculation in housing", and the decline of the pig cycle from the peak to the bottom (in essence, there is a fundamental change in pork supply and demand).
their commonalities are: the shift of national macro policies and industrial cyclical changes. This should prove the old investors' words "you have to watch the news broadcast every day!". Of course, smarter readers will pay attention to the 21st century economic report for the reason you know...
Hello, 2022
It will be difficult to invest in 2021, but it may be more difficult in 2022.
Less than a month away from 2022, covid-19 virus mutated again, and Omicron virus quickly swept the world. Countries are facing great enemies, adding more uncertain factors to the global economic situation and financial markets in 2022.
the most disturbing thing is that in 2022, the world will face the dilemma of falling economic growth and rising inflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve will enter the interest rate increase cycle, which will have a far-reaching impact on the trend of global financial asset prices.
In the outlook for 2022, the investment strategies of several head institutions pointed out that the profit growth of A-Shares will be significantly downward.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) the research report points out that based on the law of "time cycle", after experiencing the "upward period" of profit from 2020 to 2021, the enterprise profit will usher in the "downward period" from 2022 to 2023. The "production" of production capacity in 2022 will lead to an increase in supply, but the decline in profits will lead to a drop in demand. The beta of enterprise profitability will gradually transition from the "supply and demand gap" in 2021 to the "excess supply" in 2022. It is expected that it will be difficult for the market to have a general upward trend in 2022. At the same time, the difficulty of selecting the target is also increasing. It is necessary to deeply explore the sectors with certain certainty of performance growth. It is expected that the middle and downstream enterprises have more advantages.
The capital market neither believes in myths nor tears, nor the so-called "yyds" (eternal God). The only constant is "always changing". Whether it is "Mao index" or "Ning portfolio", investors should keep a calm.
Investment should not only live in the present, but also have poetry and distance; Life is a long time coming. We should focus on the distance, open the pattern and embrace value. After all, we are still in our years.
(21st Century Business Herald)
