Covid-19 virus antigen detection program was officially released. As the downstream of antigen detection, can the access of new varieties become the "combustion promoter" of this sector?
Compared with the rapid self-test package of pharmacies in overseas and Hong Kong, China, the mainland chain pharmacies were in a blank stage in this field before. Some people in the Chinese chain drugstore industry told the financial associated press that the introduction of the plan means that it will bring new sales growth points to the drugstore. Although the direct revenue contribution accounts for a small proportion, the key is to bring more traffic to the drugstore and indirectly drive the sales of other products of the drugstore.
passenger flow is expected to be "added up"
The reporter learned that in the afternoon of March 11, "covid-19 virus antigen detection application program (Trial)" has been widely spread in the circle. According to the plan, community residents who need self-test can purchase antigen test reagents for self-test through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels.
An IVD industry insider told reporters that covid-19 antigen detection products are actually divided into professional version and home self-test version. At present, the home self-test version with greater market demand. From the product quality itself, there is little difference, but there are differences in packaging and specifications. At present, no covid-19 antigen detection kit for self-test has been approved in China. He believes that the current nucleic acid detection has a large scale and high cost. Some grass-roots medical and health institutions, such as community health service centers or township health centers, may not have the ability of nucleic acid detection, but antigen detection is faster and cheaper, which can further improve the ability of "early detection" and complement nucleic acid detection. The application for registration of the company's related products in China is in preparation.
On the afternoon of March 11, the reporter consulted the customer service personnel of several large chain pharmacies, including Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) and so on. They all said that there was no sales of covid-19 antigen testing products. At present, the stores have no way to realize self-testing. However, a person in the chain drugstore industry told reporters that he had seen the latest "scheme" on the same day, and the company would certainly actively participate in the sale of covid-19 self-test reagents in drugstores. In addition to bringing new sales increment, the more important thing is to bring traffic to pharmacies.
Public information shows that up to now, China has approved five professional kits for covid-19 antigen rapid detection POC. The home self-test version that can be purchased through pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels has not been approved, and the introduction of the new policy may accelerate the promotion. Some analysts believe that once covid-19 is widely promoted in China, it will be a huge market of 100 billion even considering the factors of future price decline. As the nearest place to consumers and the most convenient place to buy covid-19 self-test reagent, retail pharmacies will usher in new market growth opportunities.
The above pharmacies also believe that it may be similar to the previous masks. At the beginning (self-test version), the supply of goods may be tight, but manufacturers will certainly give priority to docking with large chain pharmacies. In the future, such products may account for a small proportion of the overall sales, about a few points, but the increase of passenger flow will drive the sales of other products and improve the repurchase rate.
industry valuation is at the "freezing point"
On March 11, the above plan flowed out at noon. In addition to detonating the covid-19 detection sector, the drugstore sector, which had been depressed for many days, also ushered in the moment of "Jedi counterattack". As of the closing of the day, Yifeng Pharmacy Chain Co.Ltd(603939) trading limit Dashenlin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(603233) , Yixintang Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(002727) increased by more than 9% Yunnan Jianzhijia Health-Chain Co.Ltd(605266) , Lbx Pharmacy Chain Joint Stock Company(603883) increased by more than 6%.
If there is no "change" on this day, in fact, the above pharmacy chain listed companies have hit a new low in recent two years in the past few days, and the valuation is at an all-time low. Zhongkang CMH data show that offline retail pharmacies are facing the challenge of continuous decline in passenger flow. According to statistics, compared with that before the epidemic, the passenger flow of pharmacies across the country is still in a relatively low state. The passenger flow in the second half of 2021 is about 70% - 80% of that in the same period of 2019. The fluctuation of epidemic situation has become one of the key factors affecting the passenger flow of pharmacies. According to the view of a head chain drugstore, mainly under the epidemic prevention and control measures, limit the sales of "four types" drugs such as cold and fever, and limit the number of people entering the store, resulting in the decline of passenger flow.
After the introduction of the above plan, pharmacies can sell covid-19 antigen self-test reagent, which can be described as "another window". As the downstream of antigen detection, chain pharmacies still have a time lag for the real implementation of products. It remains to be seen whether the subsequent passenger flow can pick up. Yesterday, the pharmacy sector rose in batches. Is it "the east wind is coming" or the "one-day tour" market catalyzed by emotion? Insiders told reporters that the current valuation of the pharmacy sector has been very low. Due to the high base in the same period last year, Q1 will improve month on month, and Q2 is expected to usher in an industry inflection point; In addition, all major drugstore companies have formulated channel sinking strategies, and have a greater say in the market in local cities and counties. No matter which one gets the sales right of covid-19 antigen self-test reagent first, it will form a positive stimulus to the industry.
According to the analysis of Kaiyuan securities, in 2021, the profit cycle of retail pharmacies was extended by an average of 1-3 months due to the impact of the epidemic and policies, and the influencing factors were mainly short-term factors. With the increase of vaccination rate, the epidemic situation is expected to be controlled; Major pharmacies adjust their own business mode, such as adjusting categories and sales mode, which will have a certain impact on the profitability of stores, and is expected to return to normal when the operation returns to steady state. It is expected that the proportion of old stores and secondary new stores of retail pharmacies will increase in 2022, which is expected to usher in an inflection point of revenue and profit growth.
