accelerated energy reform
Fengguang reservoir continues to prosper
Recently, the 2022 national energy work conference was held, at which it was mentioned to accelerate the green and low-carbon development of energy, strengthen the guarantee of policies and measures, and accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution.
from a series of top-level plans, the development of wind power and photovoltaic is no longer predicted simply from the industry itself, but its development significance should be viewed from the perspective of an important part of the power side of the new power system. in addition, in order to achieve the “double carbon” goal, the total installed capacity of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation needs to reach more than 1.2 billion kw by 2030. Although there are some obstacles to the development of the new energy industry in 2021, from the situation in 2022, the tense relationship between upstream and downstream supply and demand of photovoltaic will be alleviated, and the price of the industrial chain is expected to return to stability; The wind power industry still has room for cost reduction on the basis of the continuous decline of bidding prices in 2021.
In 2022, the development momentum of photovoltaic and wind power is worth looking forward to. In terms of subdivision direction, the focus will be on promoting the cluster development of offshore wind power and the development of wind power photovoltaic bases in the “Three North” region, focusing on the construction of wind power photovoltaic bases in deserts, Gobi and deserts, and starting the implementation of “wind control action in thousands of villages and towns” and “Sunshine Action for thousands of families”, etc. From the perspective of capital market, we can pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the industrialization of photovoltaic n-type cells, the large-scale fan and the transformation of old wind farms.
An important part of building a new power system is energy storage. the increase of the proportion of new energy on the power supply side will have an impact on the operation stability of the power grid. Energy storage will effectively alleviate this problem and ensure the stable output of the power supply. Not long ago, the document issued by the state proposed to accelerate the large-scale application of pumped storage and new energy storage; Accelerate the formation of a new power installation development mechanism based on energy storage and peak shaving capacity; We will strengthen research, demonstration and industrial application of new energy storage technologies such as electrochemistry and compressed air. According to the conservative prediction of cnesa, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China will reach 35.5gw in 2025, and the compound growth rate from 2021 to 2025 will be about 57%.
With the alternation of new and old power sources, China’s power system is ushering in a great change, and the development of Fengguang storage is brought into this great change. Although the construction of a new power system is not achieved overnight, and traditional energy such as thermal power still plays an important role at this stage, industries such as wind power storage are bound to contribute more to energy reform.
lack of core and rising prices are easing
automotive electronics will drive into the fast lane
Affected by the continuous and repeated covid-19 epidemic, the boom cycle of the current round of electronic industry has been extended, and the price increase due to core shortage has become an insurmountable theme in 2021. However, with the gradual release of production capacity, the marginal impact of price increase factors is gradually weakening.
From the performance of the electronics industry in 2021, as of December 26, Shenwan Electronics (LOF) had increased by about 18% in the year, with increased volatility. Since the second quarter of 2021, the industry has accelerated its recovery due to the acceleration of panel price rise, the strengthening trend of new energy vehicles and the improvement of overseas vaccination rate. In the third quarter, the prices of memory, panels, some components and fabless manufacturers were differentiated or even reduced. The market was worried that the demand was weakening, the industry began to enter a recession, and the plate corrected the sideways. However, with the strong driving of photovoltaic power generation and new energy vehicles on electronic shipments and the enhancement of consumer electronics recovery expectations, the sector shows a significant upward trend.
The comprehensive analysis organization expects that in 2022, the consumer electronics sector dominated by Apple industrial chain will usher in further valuation repair; At the same time, under the theme of “carbon neutralization”, the trend of electrification and intelligence will drive the automotive electronics sectors such as vehicle specification semiconductors and on-board electronic components into the fast track.
In terms of growth, under the theme of “carbon neutralization”, the penetration rate of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market will grow from 4% to 20%, and automobile electronics will drive into the fast lane in 2022. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, the value of power semiconductors in new energy vehicles accounts for the largest proportion. At the same time, the electric vehicle market has a growing demand for extending the range and shortening the charging time. High voltage resistant silicon carbide and other power devices are expected to become the standard configuration of the main drive inverter. Relevant industrial links are cooperating with automobile enterprises to accelerate the landing, promote the improvement of silicon carbide process yield, and important links such as substrate materials of compound semiconductors have also been intensively invested by listed companies.
From the perspective of periodic repair, represented by the apple industry chain, the prosperity of the consumer electronics sector is expected to rebound. According to the data of China Academy of information technology, China’s mobile phone shipments increased in double digits in October and November, and the industry recovery trend was gradually established. Insiders believe that Apple concept stocks such as Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) , Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) , Goertek Inc(002241) , Universal Scientific Industrial(Shanghai)Co.Ltd(601231) , Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) may benefit. In addition, Huawei, oppo and other domestic mobile phone manufacturers have increased the number of folding screen mobile phones, which will usher in innovation for the whole business format. The market pays attention to investment opportunities such as Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , Boe Technology Group Co.Ltd(000725) , Visionox Technology Inc(002387) , Dongguan Eontec Co.Ltd(300328) , Lens Technology Co.Ltd(300433) .
liquor consumption blooms
Recently, the major Baijiu manufacturers have been holding annual dealer conference, reviewing the performance of 2021, and planning the 2022 development goals. The information transmitted from all sides is generally based on stability.
From the recent feedback from the channel, the cost of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and the national cellar 1573 has been slightly increased, and Moutai has also raised certain expectations. The Baijiu plate market has shown some fluctuations. At the expense level, the demand for high-end Baijiu gifts, business banquets, small-scale reception and other needs are relatively rigid. With the verification of the Spring Festival Performance in 2021, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) estimates that the demand for high-end Baijiu is stable in the opening season of 2022.
The data show that in 2021, the Baijiu industry remained stable and the head effect was still obvious. Under the background of “five high-end brands”, the scale of “Lu Mao” has been continuously upgraded. In the field of sub Baijiu Baijiu, in recent years, it has benefited from the upward shift in liquor consumption price belt and the rapid expansion of the industry dividend. The addition of a series of wines under the high-end brand “maowulu” has also further intensified the competition in the secondary high-end market. It is not easy to break through.
but with the end of the high-end liquor and high-end market expansion bonus, the overall liquor consumption structure upgrading slowed down, and social drinking further intensified, which will inevitably bring the Chinese Baijiu industry into a stable period. Baijiu analyst and general manager Cai Xuefei, a general manager of the company, said that especially in the stock market environment, the strong differentiation and adjustment of Chinese Baijiu industry is coming to an end. The industry has begun to enter the value consumption era with the core of brand and quality. In the next few years, the pattern of China’s wine industry will show a solidification trend, and famous wines will gather in different price bands.
Specifically, the polarization phenomenon appears under the strong differentiation trend of China’s liquor industry. On the one hand, the social attributes of famous liquor products are further strengthened, and the brand potential continues to grow. Monopoly advantages are formed in the high-end and sub high-end price belt, and some winery wine enterprises based on regional culture and characteristics will gradually rise in the environment of diversified consumption. Brand culture, production area quality, high-quality production capacity and consumer experience have become the competitive content and direction of China’s wine industry in the next stage. On the other hand, under the influence of social trends such as health preservation and rational drinking, the market penetration of low alcohol wine, high-speed bottled wine, yellow rice wine, rice wine, beer and red wine in the transformation of community consumption is gradually increasing, and China’s alcohol consumption really presents a situation of “a hundred flowers bloom”.
accelerated popularization of new energy vehicles
intelligent trend brewing new opportunities
New energy vehicles will really enter the public view in 2021, and the annual penetration rate will exceed the critical point of 10%. With the introduction of more mainstream models, electric vehicles will accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles.
In the secondary market, the new forces of car making have surpassed the market value of traditional car enterprises. The “Ning index” led by “Ning Wang” has been singing all the way. The main line of electrification has almost dominated the market interpretation of the whole year, and the intelligent trend is brewing the next opportunity.
as the most valuable part of the whole vehicle, power battery has become the core of electrification. at present, the market presents a situation of “one super and many strong” led by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , and the industry pattern is not indestructible. With the increasing willingness of vehicle manufacturers to control the supply chain, seeking second and third supply will provide a breakthrough for more second-line battery manufacturers. Many manufacturers have repeatedly raised their future production capacity targets and the competition for share has begun.
The grasp of battery technology change is also the key to victory. Among the two mainstream technical routes, lithium iron phosphate will enjoy a great success in 2021, but high nickel ternary still controls the territory of the high-end market. new technology is also accelerating its industrialization, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) releases sodium ion batteries in 2021 and plans to build the first production line in 2022. It is worth looking forward to whether the decline in manufacturing costs can resonate with the upcoming energy storage market.
However, lithium batteries will still occupy the mainstream for a long time, so the industrial chain must face the thirst for upstream resources and raw materials. Lithium battery materials have experienced the intertwined variation of soaring price and substantial expansion of production in 2021, moving towards large-scale chemical industry and large-scale production, and attracting players from all walks of life to cross-border cut in. The price of lithium carbonate, the core raw material, has reached a high of 250000 yuan / ton by the end of 2021. Market participants expect that the price will remain high and grind the top repeatedly. However, with the continuous release of expanded capacity, the rapid rise in price is difficult to reproduce. The industrial chain should always be vigilant against excess risks.
It is generally expected in the industry that the intelligent trend represented by technologies such as automatic driving, intelligent cockpit and Internet of vehicles will be significantly enhanced in 2022. After the vehicle factory has experienced the catch-up of endurance ability, it is difficult to make a difference in the direction of electrification, and intelligent experience will be the key competitiveness in the future.
the performance of national defense industry is expected to grow high
four main lines deserve attention
With the proposal of the Centennial goal of building a strong army, the construction of weapons and equipment has entered the fast lane.
In the past two years, the performance of China’s military industry has shown an accelerated growth trend. From 2016 to 2019, the net profit growth of the military industry was 26%, 17%, 17% and 12% respectively. In 2020 and the first three quarters of 2021, the growth rate of the industry’s net profit reached 38% and 51% respectively, shifting from the past steady growth to the high growth stage.
With performance support, the supporting effect of funds in related industries appears. Taking Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) as an example, the company ended successfully with a fixed increase of 4.298 billion yuan and won the support of “national prefix” such as the national military civilian integration fund, which reflects the sufficient confidence of the primary market.
The reporter found that since last year, the callback range of the military industry sector has become smaller and smaller. It is expected that the fluctuation in 2022 will be weakened, and the matching degree between the market and performance will be higher. Combined with prosperity, performance growth, certainty and valuation, the allocation advantages of the military industry sector have gradually become prominent, and the proportion of institutional positions has increased month on month over several quarters. It is expected that the shareholding proportion will continue to increase in the future, the institutionalization trend will be more obvious, and the target of the market value of China University will still be the focus of allocation.
Wang Han, a military analyst at Anxin securities, expects that the profit growth rate of the military industry is expected to reach about 40% in 2021, and the industry will maintain a high growth rate of more than 30% in the next two years. The growth rate of some links or segments of the track is higher, the horizontal comparison growth rate is among the top and the certainty is very high.
The 14th five year plan is a critical period for achieving the Centennial goal of building a strong army. A new generation of weapons and equipment represented by the “20” series will be installed in large quantities. With the army accelerating the modernization of weapons and equipment, the key models of downstream aerospace are successively batch produced and delivered, and the demand side is expected to maintain rapid growth. In addition, the production capacity of all links of the industrial chain and the improvement of operation efficiency, the military industry sector is expected to maintain high performance growth.
where are the investment opportunities in the military sector in the new year? Wang Han suggested paying attention to the four main lines of aviation, aerospace, informatization and new materials.
farewell to the cold winter
aquaculture capacity is accelerated and will be reduced in spring
The surge in costs caused by the overall rise in commodity prices, the reduction in demand caused by the repeated covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, and the significant increase in the cyclical capacity supply of the industry have led to the overall “cold winter” of China’s aquaculture industry in 2021.
After two years of capacity recovery, China’s pig breeding industry finally fell below the cost price in May 2021, ushered in a loss period of continuous bottoming, and the price trough of 5.14 yuan / kg appeared on October 6. Although the pig price recovered periodically after the National Day holiday, making the pig breeding industry reap a little profit after November, the problem of market overcapacity remains unsolved.
With the decline of pig prices, consumers choose low-cost pork more frequently, and poultry consumption will undoubtedly be impacted in 2021. Low price pork has seriously lowered the price of chicken. Coupled with the release of chicken production capacity, poultry breeding enterprises have generally suffered losses. The price of white feather broiler and wool chicken was once lower than 4 yuan / kg. At the same time, the surge in the number of live pigs and meat and poultry also brings a hot demand market for China’s feed industry in 2021. Statistics show that from January to August 2021, the total feed output in China reached 190 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, of which the pig feed output increased by 62.6%.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of 2021, the output of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry meat was 64.28 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. It is estimated that in 2021, the supply of live pigs in China may exceed 700 million, the supply scale of meat and poultry will also reach about 16 billion, and the supply-demand balance point of China’s meat and poultry market will be about 13 billion. Obviously, the current concentration of China’s aquaculture industry is still not high, and the periodic fluctuation effect is obvious. When the production capacity reaches the peak and the industry loss pressure lasts for a certain period of time, the market will spontaneously adjust supply and demand, gradually eliminate the production capacity, increase the market price and pick up the industry profit.
in 2022, with the deepening impact of losses and the further withdrawal of production capacity, the aquaculture industry is expected to usher in spring. Recently, bond dealers including China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) have expressed optimism about the recovery of pig prices this year and believe that pig prices will usher in an inflection point after the second quarter of this year. According to the analysis of Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) Research Report, the production capacity of sows is expected to continue to be depolarized from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2022. In the past pig cycle, the next round of pig cycle inflection point will be seen in about one year after the stock of fertile sows continues to disappear. Based on this, under optimistic conditions, the pig price may usher in the next round of pig cycle inflection point in the second half of 2022. Under pessimistic expectations, the pig price inflection point may be seen in the first half of 2023.
The pig breeding industry leader Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) also said in a recent announcement that the current stock of fertile sows in China is still higher than the normal level, and the deregulation of pig production capacity will continue. The future market trend mainly depends on the length and depth of deregulation of production capacity. According to the experience of previous years, pork consumption is generally off-season after the Spring Festival, which does not rule out the possibility of continuous downward exploration of pig prices. It is optimistically estimated that after the second half of 2022, pig prices may enter the upward channel of the next cycle.
(Securities Times)
