Cui Chenlong, fund manager of Qianhai open source public utility: the new energy industry is magnificent, and the industry ceiling is still far away
In 2022, we will continue to be optimistic about the long-term investment opportunities brought by the main line of the energy revolution represented by new energy. The investment time and space dimensions generated by this main line can be comparable to the first and second industrial revolutions in history. China is in a global leading position in this energy revolution, and a large number of Chinese leading enterprises are also global leading enterprises. Therefore, in China's capital market, we can share the best development achievements of the industry and help China's high-quality enterprises accelerate their development.
The national strategy of "carbon peaking and carbon neutralization" has defined the development objectives of the new energy industry in the future. It is believed that with the joint efforts of policies and industries, the whole new energy industry will usher in magnificent development in the future. We are still far from the ceiling of the industry. Whether from the perspective of industrial scale and space or from the perspective of technical potential, the future potential of the new energy industry is unlimited.
In 2022, the fundamentals of major segments, including lithium batteries and photovoltaic, are still in the stage of rapid growth. In this stage of rapid growth, different links of the industrial chain are prone to tight supply of individual links due to different production expansion cycles and different historical capacity expansion progress, which hinders the growth of overall sales. However, from the perspective of long-term cycle, these capacity constraints are often a short-term phenomenon. In the long run, the capacity of each link will continue to grow with the growth of real demand, and finally can meet the terminal demand. In the case of such short-term fluctuations, the scarce links will earn excess profits, while the profits of other links will be squeezed. However, I believe that except that the supply of individual links is caused by high barriers, it will form a long-term good operating profit. In the long run, this short-term profit fluctuation has little impact on the long-term investment value of the company.
From the perspective of long-term investment, at present, the proportion of new energy vehicles, wind power and photovoltaic in the power generation of the whole society is at the single digit level, and there is huge growth space in the future. At the same time, both policy support, economy and product performance support the continuous development of these industries in the long cycle.
Specific to the subdivided fields and directions, enterprises that can always lead the technological progress of the industry will create excess value in the long run, and avoid potential technologies and products with the risk of being eliminated. According to the development prospect of the industry fundamentals, the future innovation of lithium battery needs to focus on the rapid development and application of 46800 battery, silicon carbon negative electrode, lithium iron manganese phosphate positive electrode, CTP / CTC and other technologies, while photovoltaic needs to focus on the investment opportunities brought by the changes of heterojunction battery, mass production of granular silicon and large silicon chip.
The development of anything can not be smooth sailing. It is normal to have fluctuations in the short-term development of the industry. Therefore, 2022 is only one of the whole new energy strategic investment opportunities. In this investment opportunity that may last for decades, it is more necessary to focus on medium and long-term investment opportunities and accompany high-quality enterprises to grow together.
Han Chuang, fund manager of Dacheng state owned enterprise reform: the style in 2022 is more balanced and optimistic about the two directions
The year 2021 with drastic market changes has passed, and the new year 2022 officially begins.
At this point in time, I'd like to talk about my overall view on investment in 2022. From the perspective of fundamentals, I believe that the determination and policy strength of the central government to stabilize the economy should not be underestimated. Economic growth is guaranteed; In terms of liquidity, China's monetary policy is expected to be marginally relaxed. In addition, it is still in the historical window period when residents' wealth allocation turns from real estate to equity assets, so there is no worry about the liquidity of the stock market.
Overall, I am confident in the investment in 2022, and even think that there will be more opportunities than in 2021.
So, will 2022 continue the huge structural differentiation market in recent years? My personal view is that the structural probability will converge and the style will be more balanced in 2022. In fact, 2021 is a year of correction, which is not only the correction of small market value relative to large market value, but also the correction of cycle, growth and other sectors relative to consumption. It should be said that after one year's correction, the style separation in previous years has been converged to a great extent, and the style will be more balanced in 2022. Except for some extremely crowded high prosperity events, there are certain opportunities in most industries in 2022.
Therefore, the importance of stock selection in 2022 has further increased. Relying on betting on a track to obtain huge excess returns may not work in the new year. Only by selecting high-quality stocks through meso and micro research can we obtain good returns sustainably.
Specifically, I am optimistic about two directions: the first is carbon peak and carbon neutralization. The dual carbon strategy is still a long-term strategy and a major change in China's production and lifestyle. There are huge investment opportunities in this process, including traditional high energy consuming industries, new energy industries, power system fields, new materials and new technologies for energy conservation and consumption reduction. The second major direction is the midstream manufacturing industry. The manufacturing industry specializing in special and new types is the specific starting point of China's industrial upgrading, and there are also major opportunities.
In the past two years, the fund I managed has received keen attention from the market and has nearly one million holders. Thanks to the love of investors, I have been deeply trusted and strongly supported by the "fund examination year" when the market is stuck and investment differences increase. I think the performance of the fund is just a result. You may want to know the reasons behind this. Take this opportunity to share my understanding of investment. I think the most important thing in investment is the company's pricing ability. I also use the discounted cash flow model to analyze the company's value, but I will divide the company's future cash flow into two dimensions: medium and short-term (2-3 years) and medium and long-term (decades in the future). The rapid growth of a company's medium and short-term performance is driven by the industry in most cases; The medium and long-term performance growth mainly depends on the company's competitive advantage. I hope to build a combination of attack and defense. Therefore, I need to take into account the company's medium and short-term performance (the core factor is the industry prosperity) and medium and long-term performance (the core factor is the company's own competitive advantage), and add valuation to improve the odds.
2022 is still full of challenges, but I am still confident to bring you long-term excess returns. I deeply cherish the vote of confidence given to me by the holder, and will continue to improve my management ability and create better performance returns for the holder.
On the occasion of leaving the old and welcoming the new, I sincerely wish investors a happy New Year! I hope everyone can calm down, slow down and get the gift of time with China's economic growth.
Zhong Shuai, China industry boom fund manager: growth stocks continue to play the leading role and guard against the value trap
For investors, 2022 will be a challenging year with both opportunities and risks. The main line that determines the direction of market operation will shift from productivity to production relations. We believe that although there is little possibility of a large-scale index bull market in the equity market this year, there will still be more structural investment opportunities. Under the combination of economic slowdown, economic structure transformation and relatively loose liquidity environment in the equity market, growth stocks are still more likely to become the protagonist of the market.
specifically, we think the following three directions deserve special attention:
first, the high-end manufacturing industry with recovered performance. in 2021, affected by factors such as rising raw material prices, frequent outbreaks and power restriction policies, the performance of many manufacturing companies was suppressed. Some manufacturing companies with good quality and long-term growth logic are likely to usher in performance recovery this year. These companies are hiding in the relevant industrial chains of high boom industries such as consumer electronics, high-end equipment manufacturing, new energy and military industry, which is worthy of in-depth exploration.
second, the growth sector with dilemma reversal, such as media and medicine. The demand of these two sectors is less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations and has its own independent growth logic. After experiencing valuation contraction and profit expectation adjustment, they have the conditions for bottom reversal. If a marginal improvement in fundamentals can be observed in 2022, the high-quality companies are expected to achieve a large increase.
Third, from productivity to production relations, the focus is on the reform of state-owned enterprises. 2022 is the end of the three-year assessment of state-owned enterprise reform. Expanding and strengthening the public economy and leading the development of emerging industries with state-owned capital are in line with our national strategy and the development trend of Chinese society. In this context, it is believed that in 2022, a group of excellent state-owned enterprises with strong industrial competitiveness and fully improved incentive mechanism will stand out in the capital market, and may even become the backbone leading the annual market.
Finally, it also reminds investors that the investment risk in 2022 may come from the reconstruction of "value" defined by traditional western economics. We are facing a new era, a new era in which technological progress is rapidly evolving, the anti globalization trend has just begun, and the whole people are moving towards common prosperity. Many values defined in the traditional sense are likely to be transformed into value traps, which is indeed the biggest challenge of investment in 2022.
Han Guangzhe, executive general manager of Equity Investment Department of Golden Eagle Fund: the structural market of A-Shares remains the same, focusing on the energy revolution in the dual carbon era
The light boat has arrived 2021, 2022.
In the past year, the A-share market continued to fluctuate, the structured market was obvious, and the overall performance of some industries with good demand and guaranteed prosperity was more prominent. Among them, some links with relatively short supply, such as coal, nonferrous metals, or some related materials in new energy vehicles, have a good performance; Some consumer varieties whose valuations have reached a higher position after the previous rise, or have been impacted by the rise in costs, have a relatively general performance.
Entering 2022, China's economy is expected to get out of the form of low before high. With the gradual recovery of European and American economies, there is a game between China's liquidity expectation, economy and inflation. On the whole, the A-share market may still be dominated by structural opportunities, but does not have the basis of a unilateral market.
From the perspective of investment opportunities, industries with good prosperity in 2022 may be reduced compared with 2021. In terms of industrial field or track selection, further focus is needed. In my opinion, investment is ultimately to obtain the value of time, and the value depends on where the long-term allocation of time is. For long-term investment, we should fully identify the development background of the times in order to grasp the core opportunities. In investment, my idea is to look for investment opportunities in the medium and long-term industrial trend. If the future output value of the industry continues to increase, it can drive the coordinated development of other industries, and the overall growth rate of the industry is fast, which is in line with the medium and long-term industrial trend defined by me.
specifically, under the background that China is committed to achieving the goal of "carbon neutralization" by 2060, focusing on the new energy industry chain driven by the energy revolution in the dual carbon era, the prosperity may be expected to maintain for a long time. I pay more attention to the power cells of new energy vehicles, some midstream materials and upstream resources, photovoltaic module integration and volume increase. In other subdivided industries, the overall industry performance is not much, which needs to be distinguished. If the epidemic situation can be better improved this year, the investment opportunities in consumption, tax exemption, travel, aviation and other fields greatly affected by the epidemic deserve attention. At the same time, digital economy fields such as cloud security and Internet of things, intelligent manufacturing and medical innovation are also my key areas of concern.
If I look at it for a longer time, I also attach great importance to the manufacturing industry. From the perspective of supply chain security and industrial upgrading, manufacturing industry is very important for China's overall competitiveness in the future. There may be investment opportunities in more subdivided manufacturing industries or subdivided industries.
Opportunities and risks in the market are often interdependent. It still depends on economic policy arrangements in 2022, including fiscal, monetary, reserve requirement reduction, interest rate reduction, etc. Uncertain factors such as unexpected external events and the pressure on China's steady economic growth may become risks that need to be prevented.
However, as a professional investor, I think it is more important to keep a rational return expectation, adjust a good attitude, treat market fluctuations correctly, and be based on medium and long-term investment, so as to be relatively calm in market fluctuations.
Yang Yu, rotating fund manager of Great Wall Industry: shares the same frequency with booming industries and is optimistic about energy storage photovoltaic new energy vehicles
My investment philosophy is more inclined to the perspective of industrial development and believes that the ultimate source of core income is the development of the industry and the company itself. At the current time point, I still think that the whole new energy industry is in the golden period of industrial development, with huge long-term space and rapid increase in penetration. Therefore, in 2022, I will still focus on the whole new energy industry, closely track the changes in industry fundamentals and build my own portfolio. In the context of steady growth, the liquidity environment is expected to be better next year, which is also more conducive to the investment of growth stocks.
specifically, we are optimistic about the development of energy storage, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other industries in 2022. In addition, we will pay close attention to the industrial progress of automobile intelligence.
energy storage is currently in the stage of explosive development. under the background of global energy supply turning to green power, the development of energy storage as a tool to adjust the stability of green power and better match supply and demand is imperative. At present, we have seen the trend and conditions for the rapid development of energy storage, whether it is overseas household and power grid side, or China's power grid and industrial and commercial side. In the future, with the further decline of cost, the development space of energy storage will continue to expand.
new energy vehicles are in the stage of rapid development. since 2020, the development of new energy vehicles has been very good. There are positive factors at both ends of supply and demand to promote the development of new energy vehicles. Both the increasing recognition and investment of the supply side in the direction of new energy transformation and the increasing attention and acceptance of the consumer side in new energy vehicles have promoted the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, We expect this trend to continue. We are optimistic about incremental parts represented by lithium batteries. In the context of the rapid development of new energy vehicles, we see that more and more new energy vehicle enterprises begin to launch automotive intelligent products, which means that automotive intelligence begins to enter the stage of gradual implementation. Since the industry is still in a relatively early stage, we will pay close attention to the progress of intelligent industry.
the photovoltaic industry will usher in a year of rapid development in 2022. the core vocabulary of the photovoltaic industry in 2021 is "shortage". Due to the lack of supply chain capacity, the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2021 is limited to a certain extent, resulting in the final installed capacity not matching the demand. The problem of supply chain will be solved in 2022. With the decline of installation cost, the demand will be greatly stimulated, so that the photovoltaic installation will usher in a year of rapid development in 2022. In this context, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities of the whole photovoltaic industry chain.
in conclusion, in 2022, we judge that energy storage, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other industries will still develop rapidly. At the same time, China's high-quality companies are already in a leading position in many links and have outstanding investment value. Therefore, in 2022, we will still focus on the whole new energy industry and make common progress with the industry.
(Securities Times)
