Goodbye 2021, hello 2022.
Looking back on 2021, which has just turned the page, some people are happy and others are worried; Some people caught bull stocks, others hit the "black swan", and differentiation once again became the main tone of A-share 2021:
lucky ones are in a bull market: in 2021, more than 320 stocks (excluding new shares listed in 2021) increased by more than 100%, 24 stocks increased by more than 300%, and Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) increased by more than 566% in the year, becoming the king of A-Shares in 2021.
those who step on the thunder suffer from the bear market: in 2021, as many as 240 stocks fell by more than 30%, and 28 stocks suffered a waist cut, Offcn Education Technology Co.Ltd(002607) an annual decline of more than 77%, suffered two waist cuts, and 23 listed companies withdrew from the market in 2021, a record high.
In 2021, the topic of "A-share earns 50000 per capita" has made many investors the average target. In the year of resumption of trading, although the major indexes of A-Shares were calm, the market funds were choppy. The total transaction amount of the whole year was as high as 257.25 trillion yuan, exceeding 254 trillion yuan in 2015, setting a new record for a shares.
By combing the trends of public funds, northbound funds, quantitative trading and leveraged funds, the main reason for the record turnover of A-Shares in 2021 is that the large-scale position adjustment game and quantitative trading of public institutions are becoming more and more popular, and the northbound funds continue to allocate a shares, rather than the admission of large-scale incremental funds. In addition, the continuous growth of the volume and scale of the A-share market makes it reasonable for the transaction amount of A-shares to set a record.
RARE! A-Shares traded 257 trillion a year
2021 of A-Shares officially came to an end. In the year of resumption of trading, although the major indexes appeared calm, the amount of market trading funds was magnificent, directly setting the highest transaction record in the history of a shares.
According to the data of , by the end of December 31, 2021, the annual turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets had reached 257.25 trillion yuan, exceeding 254 trillion yuan in 2015, a record high.
Purely from the perspective of the total transaction volume, the A-share market is very fierce in 2021, and the capital liquidity is very sufficient. Specifically, from March to may 2021, the trading volume of A-Shares was once very low, and the situation of single day turnover exceeding trillion was very rare. However, after entering July, the single day turnover exceeding trillion has become the norm, once creating a turnover exceeding trillion yuan for 49 consecutive trading days.
Such a hot trading volume is also very rare in the history of a shares. The single day turnover of A-Shares exceeded trillion at the end of 2014. Then, a vigorous bull market was staged in 2015. With the blessing of the bull market, the single day turnover of trillion became the new normal of A-Shares in 2015. The turnover of 114 trading days in that year exceeded trillion yuan, and the turnover of 99 consecutive trading days exceeded trillion yuan. This record has been maintained so far.
although the transaction volume of A-Shares reached a record high in 2021, the trend of A-Shares did not significantly strengthen and has been in a pattern of sideways shocks. As of the closing on December 31, the risk of the Shanghai index stood at 3600 points, an increase of 4.8% during the year; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 2.7% during the year; The gem index was relatively strong, with an increase of 12% during the year.
From the global perspective, the growth of A-Shares in 2021 is not outstanding, and the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen composite index are almost at the bottom of the world. Hong Kong was the worst performing market, with the Hang Seng index falling by 14.1% in 2021, ranking the bottom in the global market.
So the question is, why are the three indexes calm when the trading volume of A-Shares is so hot? Behind such a huge transaction amount, who is buying? Who's selling?
the most intense game
The main driving force behind the resumption of trading in 2021 is the following forces:
since 2021, public funds, the largest "gold owner" of a shares, have contributed to most of the trading volume to a certain extent.
The data show that up to now, since 2021, the issuance scale of public funds has exceeded the 3 trillion mark, 3.05 trillion yuan, which is the second annual new fund issuance scale of the public fund industry to exceed 3 trillion yuan after 2020.
Compared with the new development fund, the influence of position adjustment of large-scale stock public funds will be stronger. According to the data released by the China Fund Industry Association, by the end of November, the number of public funds in China had reached 9152, with a net asset value of 25.32 trillion yuan, a record high. By the end of the third quarter, the total market value of A-Shares held by public funds was 5.72 trillion yuan, accounting for 8.31% of the circulating market value of a shares, the highest level in recent ten years. Once there is a sustained large-scale position adjustment, it will inevitably have a direct impact on the trading volume of a shares.
A person from a large securities firm said that since the second half of 2021, there have been some differences in the funds of institutional investors, and there are obvious signs of continuous position adjustment. Therefore, the overall transaction in the A-share market began to be active, but the A-share did not show an obvious trend of pulling up together.
let's look at another important force of A-Shares that can not be ignored: foreign capital.
The data show that as of the closing on December 30, the total turnover of northbound funds in the year has exceeded 27.5 trillion yuan, accounting for more than 10% of the total turnover of a shares, which also directly enlarges the total turnover of a shares.
In terms of horizontal comparison, the total turnover of northbound funds in 2021 increased by more than 31% compared with 2020, and by more than 1700% compared with 1.47 trillion yuan in 2015.
In addition, the enthusiasm of northbound capital to allocate A-Shares in 2021 is still high. As of the closing on December 31, northbound capital has accumulated a net purchase of A-Shares of more than 430 billion yuan during the year, 20 times that of 2015.
in addition to public funds and northbound funds, quantitative funds are undoubtedly the most concerned force in the market in 2021, which is also one of the reasons for the record turnover of a shares.
Many insiders believe that since 2021, the quantitative trading volume of A-Shares has increased significantly, contributing a large part of the turnover of a shares. According to the survey by Chinese journalists of securities companies, in the second half of 2021, the daily turnover of quantitative trading in the A-share market was about 200 billion yuan, accounting for about 20% of the transactions in the whole market.
In addition, since the implementation of the registration system on the science and innovation board and the gem, the limit on the rise and fall of individual stocks has been expanded to ± 20%, which provides greater operability for quantitative trading, and some short-term quantitative traders are more active.
In fact, since the new asset management regulations in 2018, quantitative private placement has developed very rapidly, and 10 billion quantitative private placement has emerged rapidly. In the first half of 2021, quantitative private placement ushered in another wave of great development. By the end of July 2021, the scale of quantitative private placement had officially exceeded trillion. By the end of December, the number of 10 billion quantitative private placement had increased from 11 at the end of 2020 to 27. The proportion of quantitative private placement in the whole private placement securities market had also increased to more than 21%, which still has room for further growth compared with 40% in mature markets.
In addition, leveraged funds are also the most active force in the A-share market. at present, the scale of margin trading and securities lending of A-Shares is approaching the scale of 2 trillion. As of the closing on December 30, the scale of two financing of A-Shares has reached 1840.8 billion yuan, a new high in more than six years since July 3, 2015.
finally, the market entry capital of individual investors is also one of the forces that can not be ignored. according to the data disclosed by China settlement, the number of A-share investors had reached 196 by the end of November. In the first 11 months of 2021, the number of new A-share investors had reached 18259800, which has exceeded the new scale of the whole year in 2020, the highest since 2017.
the other side of 257 trillion turnover
In fact, it may be inevitable for the transaction volume of A-Shares to refresh the historical record in 2021, because the volume of A-Shares is growing rapidly and the market funds are naturally rising.
In 2021, the number of new shares listed on A-Shares reached 524, raising more than 540 billion yuan, including many giants with a market value of more than 100 billion, such as China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) , Baiji Shenzhou, and only 23 delisted during the year.
If we lengthen the cycle, the number of A-share listed companies has increased by more than 1100 in the past three years. In the past six years, the number of A-share listed companies has increased by about 75%. The inflow of fresh blood has continuously pushed up the volume of A-shares. The pool is getting larger and larger, and the water level of the pool will naturally rise.
This can also be confirmed from the index of A-share turnover rate (turnover relative to current market value). Although the turnover of A-shares reached a record high in 2021, the turnover rate of A-shares did not increase significantly and remained below 4%. During the bull market in 2015, the daily turnover rate of A-Shares often exceeded 5%, and the highest daily turnover rate once reached 8.19%.
Obviously, the total transaction amount of A-Shares in 2021 exceeds 257 trillion yuan, which is related to the growth of a shares. This also explains why when the trading volume continues to be hot, the trend of A-Shares is calm and continues to be sideways.
Combined with the volume of a shares, turnover rate and other indicators, the current transaction amount of A-Shares continues to expand, which is not caused by the admission of large-scale incremental funds, but mainly the on-site funds. A-Shares may still be dominated by the structural market, and the fierce fluctuations of popular tracks may continue.
looking forward to 2022, most institutions are generally optimistic about the capital of a shares.
Among them, public funds are still the most important source of A-share incremental funds, which is expected to provide trillion yuan of incremental funds for the A-share market. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that the net inflow of public funds in 2022 will be 850 billion yuan. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) is more optimistic. It is expected that the contribution of equity and hybrid public funds to A-share incremental funds may be 0.9 trillion-1.2 trillion yuan in 2022.
In terms of northward funds, institutions generally give a net inflow expectation of 300-400 billion yuan. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) it is estimated that in 2022, northbound funds will still allocate additional A shares, with a net inflow of about 400 billion yuan. China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that the annual net inflow of overseas funds into A-Shares may be 200-400 billion yuan.
In addition, under the general tone of housing without speculation, real estate is no longer the best asset allocation tool, and the trend of residents' funds entering the market may continue in 2022. Cinda securities expects that the incremental funds transferred by bank securities in 2022 will be about 100 billion yuan.
(brokerage China)
