March and April of each year are the period when corn grain storage is intensively listed. However, since the end of February this year, corn prices have risen rapidly, and many farmers are reluctant to sell. What is the current situation of corn acquisition?
corn grain storage centralized listing, and the purchase price changes day by day
Zhao Hailong is a corn grower in Weifang, Shandong Province. Last autumn, his 31 mu farmland harvested more than 30000 kg of corn. Last November, he sold 20000 kg of corn at the price of 1.25 yuan per kg, now there are more than 10000 kg of corn for sale. He planned to sell it in the near future, but the purchase price of corn changes day by day recently, he has received calls from several traders every day, and the prices are getting higher and higher.
Shandong Weifang corn grower Zhao Hailong: I've asked a lot these days, including 1.35 yuan, 1.36 yuan and 1.37 yuan. is basically one price a day , up a few cents.
Zhao Hailong told reporters that in this half month, the price of corn has increased by 67 cents per kilogram. Seeing this situation, he has also changed his recent sales plan. Like Zhao Hailong, there are not a few farmers who are reluctant to sell.
Shandong Weifang corn grower Zhao Ximin: not ready to sell now, let the price rise again.
It is understood that since late February, the spot price of corn has risen sharply. The main contract of corn futures rose from about 2760 yuan / ton in late February to about 2840 yuan / ton on March 11, and the spot price also rose from 2600 yuan / ton to 2750 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 5% . Since March of each year is the concentrated time node for farmers to sell grain stored corn, the current fluctuation of corn price makes the progress of national corn sales slower than that of the same period last year.
Shen Zhen, senior analyst of Shandong Zhuo Chuang information: as of March 10, the average progress of corn sales in China was 70%, compared with 82% in the same period last year. At present, the main reason why the overall progress of grain sales is slower than that of last year is that farmers are reluctant to sell and have certain bullish expectations for corn prices.
Russia Ukraine conflict pushes up corn prices traders increase inventories in advance
The purchase price of corn rose and farmers were reluctant to sell it. So what is the current acquisition situation of corn traders? What are the reasons behind this round of corn price rise?
Qin Xi, a corn trader in Weifang, Shandong Province, told reporters that his annual trade volume can reach about 300000 tons. The rapid rise in corn prices in recent times was beyond his expectation. He originally started to build corn inventory in late March every year, but he was half a month ahead of schedule this year.
Although he started to build inventory half a month in advance, his corn inventory is only more than 1000 tons. On the one hand, farmers' enthusiasm for selling grain is not high; On the other hand, it is also related to the fact that various traders are scrambling for grain.
Shandong Weifang corn trader Qin Xi: everyone is building warehouses and building inventory in advance. If we can't afford to build inventory for a long time, we will also increase the price to buy .
Shandong Weifang corn trader Wang Qiyong: now the price is about 1.41 yuan, and now it is raising the price to collect grain , which is too low to receive.
The rapid rise in corn prices this time, is mainly related to the expected decline in corn imports caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine . China's total corn imports in 2021 were 28.35 million tons, of which 8.24 million tons were imported from Ukraine, accounting for about 29% of the total imports. In addition, the rise of wheat, soybean meal and other related Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices has also driven the price of corn to a high level.
raw material corn price increases follow the feed increase
As corn is the main component of feed, the current corn price remains high, the cost of feed production enterprises rises, and the price of finished feed products also rises.
In a feed production enterprise, it mainly produces pig feed and duck feed, while corn accounts for more than 50% of the feed. at present, the price of corn raw materials purchased by them has increased by about 150 yuan compared with one ton before the Spring Festival . In addition, the prices of soybean meal, wheat and other raw materials also rose sharply.
In addition to the pressure brought by rising costs, their sales also fell sharply due to weak downstream demand. In February, their sales of feed products were more than 7000 tons, down 30% from the same period last year.
Industry insiders pointed out that at present, China's pig production capacity and the optimization of feed proportion will reduce the demand for corn to a certain extent. At the same time, market's expectation of easing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the probability of continuous sharp rise in corn prices in the later stage is small .
Everbright futures Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) Research Director Wang Na: with the rise of temperature, it is more difficult to store corn in Northeast and North China. High moisture corn that is not easy to store is sold intensively, and the short-term corn market may callback. However, in view of the high import cost of corn, China's supply and demand pattern is still tight.
