Some market participants pointed out that the current market is no longer in line with the normal investment logic, because A-Shares don't even look at the valuation. Industry leaders with continuous growth in performance, such as Gree Electric Appliances Inc.Of Zhuhai(000651) , Fiyta Precision Technology Co.Ltd(000026) and so on, can't even maintain 10 times the valuation. However, the current ups and downs of the market is the best time for active funds to copy the bottom, especially the digital economy, integrated circuit semiconductors and military industries affected by the regional situation. The reason is also very simple: production saves itself. Some analysts pointed out that the early capital was deeply involved in science and technology, and there was a demand for position adjustment and stock exchange in the market shock. However, with the stock price generally falling sharply, the valuation attraction will increase. Investors can focus on the expected good segments such as East digital West computing, semiconductor, national defense and military industry on bargain hunting.
counting from the east to the West: the trillion industrial chain has just started
The national development and Reform Commission and other four departments jointly issued a notice in February this year, agreeing to start the construction of National Computing hub nodes in 8 places such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta and the Great Bay area of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, and planned 10 national data center clusters. So far, the overall layout design of the national integrated big data center system has been completed, and the "counting from the east to the west" project has been officially launched.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) analyst Liu Zirui pointed out that since the end of 2021, the government has issued several top-level policy documents, and the strategic position of digital economy has risen to an unprecedented height. Developing digital economy is a strategic choice to grasp the new opportunities of a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial reform. With the rapid development of digital economy, the demand for computing power is increasing. According to the report of the national development and Reform Commission, as of February 2022, the scale of China's data center has reached 5 million standard racks, which is expected to grow rapidly at a rate of more than 20% every year. The full launch of the project of "counting from the east to the west" will accelerate the development of China's digital economy, and relevant industrial chains will continue to benefit.
"Counting from the east to the west" project is the national plan for the location layout of new computing power from the perspective of top-level design, liberate the resource pressure of Eastern first tier core cities such as North, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, ensure the supply of IDC, and effectively meet the market demand brought by the rapid growth of downstream industries The analyst Cui Yuan pointed out that, according to the relevant national planning, we expect IDC construction investment during the "14th five year plan" period to be about 1440 billion yuan, with an average annual investment of 360 billion yuan, 360 billion yuan a year on average, 360 billion yuan a year on average. Related upstream and downstream industrial chains are expected to grow fast for a long time, and related upstream and downstream industry chains are expected to be expected to grow fast for a long time. It's suggested to focus on Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) \ , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) etc.
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977)
The company has grasped the two most important demand points of computing power. First, the company has grasped the wave of cloud computing, launched cloud server earlier, and innovatively launched JDM mode to achieve win-win cooperation with cloud computing giants; Second, it has led the era of artificial intelligence and formed the most complete artificial intelligence computing full stack solution in the industry. Thanks to this, the company's market share has been continuously improved and has become a well deserved server leader in China. Open source Securities pointed out that the rapid growth of the demand for "computing power" in digital construction has promoted the rapid development of the server market. We believe that the core driving force behind the development of the server market is the rapid growth of the demand for computing power in digital construction. On the whole, the demand of China's Internet industry is expected to be marginal, the tension in the upstream supply chain is gradually alleviated, and China's servers are expected to enter a new business cycle.
\u3000\u3000 Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019)
The company achieved an operating revenue of 11.183 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 10.06%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.98%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was 753 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.23%. The performance in 2021 exceeded expectations, and the high view was verified Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that "computing from the east to the west" carries IDC and cloud computing IAAs manufacturers. The most basic hardware form of IDC and cloud computing is all kinds of servers. The expansion of computing capacity directly increases the demand for servers. The expansion of the Chinese market is bringing significant market opportunities for server manufacturers. In addition, the localization rate of the server market is still low, The improvement of domestic substitution ratio is double positive for domestic server manufacturers. As a leading domestic server enterprise, the company is expected to take the lead in benefiting.
\u3000\u3000 Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335) Kehua Data Co.Ltd(002335)
The total construction area of the company's data center exceeds 200000 square meters, and its customers cover three major operators, large Internet enterprises such as Tencent, major financial institutions and government agencies. Anxin Securities pointed out that in the next three years, the company will steadily expand the scale of the data center and plans to add more than 10000 self built cabinets every year. The company has carried out in-depth cooperation with Tencent in product development, EPC Construction, operation and maintenance, cloud service sales and other aspects. The jointly developed T-block products have been widely used in Tencent's data center requirements. According to the company's announcement, in 2020, the company signed a construction agreement of 1.17 billion yuan with Tencent cloud computing company and won the bid for 500 sets of MDC centralized procurement project of Tencent Technology (Shenzhen). The company will enter the performance release period with the construction of Tencent data center.
\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837)
The company is committed to providing heat dissipation products such as computer room and cabinet air conditioner for data center, communication network and other fields, and has formed four businesses: computer room temperature control and energy saving, cabinet temperature control and energy saving, passenger car air conditioning, rail transit train air conditioning and service Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) pointed out that the construction of data centers in China is accelerating and showing a large-scale trend. The ratio of data center power consumption to the power consumption of the whole society shows an upward trend. The demand for air conditioning in machine rooms continues to increase. The company has advanced indirect evaporative cooling and liquid cooling technology, which can effectively reduce pue and achieve significant energy saving. In addition, 5g construction continues to accelerate, the rapid development of overlay cloud computing and edge computing technology, the rapid growth of equipment heat density and energy consumption, and the demand for cabinet temperature control will continue to increase. At present, the energy storage industry is in the early stage of outbreak, and the demand for energy storage and temperature control is growing rapidly, which is expected to become a strong growth point of the company's business.
semiconductor chip: "lack of core" has long supported the high prosperity of the industry
After a sharp decline in the early stage, there has been an obvious bottom building market in the semiconductor sector, and some stocks took the lead in rebounding.
From the perspective of the industry, both the policy support and the support of downstream demand terminals to China's supply chain show a trend of continuous strengthening. Some industry insiders pointed out that the main logic of the development of China's semiconductor industry is independent and controllable. At present, the development logic of domestic substitution, industrial trend and policy capital of China's semiconductor industry has not changed. The semiconductor industry is still the main line of science and technology investment in the next 3-5 years.
He Lizhong, an analyst at capital securities, pointed out that the 2022 government work report proposed to promote the development of digital economy, enhance the competitiveness of manufacturing industry and promote carbon peak work, which are conducive to the development of China's semiconductor industry. As the core hardware of digital industry, semiconductor has an important strategic position; Semiconductor industry is not only a national strategic emerging industry, but also a medium and high-end industry in line with "specialization and innovation". It will receive strong policy support in terms of capital, talents and incubation platform.
In 2021, the scale of the semiconductor industry continued to expand rapidly. Some agencies expect that from 2020 to 2024, Chinese mainland will build 8 12 inch wafer fabs, and the 12 inch wafer fab will reach 1 million 500 thousand units per month in 2024. The growth of China's semiconductor material market and the release of wafer factory capacity will stimulate the market demand of the upstream semiconductor equipment and material industry.
At present, the performance of semiconductor enterprises is good, and the boom will continue in 2022 Hongta Securities Co.Ltd(601236) analyst Xiao Lirong said that the follow-up mainly focused on the actual production capacity and performance growth of relevant companies. Investors are advised to pay attention to Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) , Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) , Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) , Jilin Sino-Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600360) , Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) , Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) , etc.
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) 60350 7
The company expects to achieve a year-on-year increase of 65.13% to 79.91% in net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021. AVIC Securities pointed out that the global vehicle CIS market presents an oligopoly pattern, and the company's market share is about 29%. As Sony and Samsung have entered the car CIS for a short time, they are not expected to pose a major threat to the company in the short term. Through cooperation with international leading automotive vision technology companies, the company provides high-quality image solutions with higher cost performance for rear-view cameras, landscape display systems and electronic rear-view mirrors. The company will fully benefit from the high growth of vehicle CIS industry and its own industry position. In addition, tddi revenue will double in 2021, and the touch and display solutions business has also brought new profit growth points to the company.
\u3000\u3000 Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893) Rockchip Electronics Co.Ltd(603893)
The company issued the draft of equity incentive. The company set the exercise price of stock options granted for the first time as 121.04 yuan / share, which is significantly higher than the closing price, which shows the company's confidence in its future growth ability. In 2021, the company launched machine vision chip rv11xx, intelligent application processor rk356x and other new products to achieve large-scale mass production, further expand the company's customer base and application scenarios, and bring new impetus to the company's performance growth. Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that in terms of supply chain, the tight supply chain of the industry made the capacity supply of the company's main OEM plants fail to grow when the demand increased sharply, resulting in the actual negative growth of capacity in 2021. With the large-scale mass production of rk3588 series chips and the gradual relief of supply chain pressure, we expect the company's performance to achieve rapid growth in 2022.
\u3000\u3000 Naura Technology Group Co.Ltd(002371) 00237 7
The company is a leading enterprise of semiconductor equipment in China. Its existing products include ICP etching, PVD equipment, oxidation diffusion equipment, cleaning equipment, etc Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that the company has the basic conditions to break the monopoly pattern. Firstly, catch-up R & D can avoid the risk of wrong judgment of technical route and improve the success rate of R & D; Secondly, the bonus of Chinese engineers can bring the company the cost advantage of competing with foreign manufacturers. These two factors are conducive to the company's rapid and low-cost technological breakthrough; Finally, the support of Chinese major customers for domestic equipment manufacturers is unprecedented. The company expands the source of funds through fixed growth, relies on the support of customers in product verification and fault handling, accumulates mature experience, successfully breaks the foreign monopoly in some fields, and is expected to increase the market share. Therefore, we are optimistic about the development potential of the company in the field of semiconductor equipment.
\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460)
Shilan Jike, the company's 12 inch production line, is the first power semiconductor company invested by the large fund in phase II, highlighting the importance of the large fund to Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) . With the further improvement of the production capacity of the 12 inch production line, the scale effect appears. With the upgrading of the product structure produced by the company, the profit margin of the production line is expected to be further improved without new depreciation. Minsheng Securities pointed out that at present, the demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic in the downstream of power semiconductor continues to erupt, the trend of short supply in the industry continues, and with the accelerated promotion of domestic substitution, the company is ushering in the transformation of rapid product upgrading and customer upgrading. Especially for IGBT, with the rapid development of 12 inch production line, the company's production capacity advantage is prominent, which fully benefits from the continuous shortage. We are optimistic about the progress of high-end upgrading of the company's products, the steady progress of business such as IGBT, MEMS and third-generation semiconductor, and the growth potential is worth looking forward to.
national defense industry: national defense support growth and regional situation benefit
China's defense expenditure budget in 2022 continued to maintain rapid growth, and increased by 0.3 percentage points compared with 6.8% in 2021. The growth rate in 2019 was 6.6%, and the year-on-year growth rate in recent three years increased slightly. In recent years, the growth rate of China's defense expenditure budget is higher than that of GDP in most years.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities analyst Ma Jie pointed out that China's military expenditure has increased steadily and rapidly, the installation of new equipment has accelerated, and the demand side of the industry is in the early stage of rapid growth; There are sufficient technical reserves in various fields, the industrial chain actively expands production, and the supply side will usher in an incremental period in the future. The supply and demand sides have jointly ensured the safety and certainty of the sector, and the long-term investment value is prominent. With the continuous adjustment of the market since January, from the perspective of valuation, the P / E ratio of the military industry sector is lower than the historical average since 2010. We believe that the current valuation of the sector is relatively low and has entered the gold allocation period.
Although the sector fluctuated greatly, it did not change the prosperity of the industry during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Lu Liting, an analyst at Dongguan securities, suggested paying attention to the layout opportunities after the substantial adjustment of the industry and waiting for the dawn. In the long run, the number of global military exercises is becoming more and more frequent. Only by improving their own military strength can they better cope with the increasingly complex world situation; The new variant virus has increased global uncertainties. As a key counter cyclical sector, the military industry sector is less affected by global economic events, and the industry as a whole is improving with high certainty.
Looking forward to 2022, the military industry segment segment will be a year in 2022, with a continuation of the high boom in military industry segments, a scale effect overlay, and improved governance. There's hope to provide performance elasticity. The China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) 901 \ \, Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) ; In terms of national defense informatization, it is suggested to pay attention to Beijing Yuanliu Hongyuan Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(603267) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Glarun Technology Co.Ltd(600562) , Piesat Information Technology Co.Ltd(688066) , Wuhan Guide Infrared Co.Ltd(002414) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) .
potential stock selection
\u3000\u3000 Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893)
The company continues to focus on the main business of aeroengine, and its main products are gradually transitioning from second-generation aircraft to third-generation aircraft. In terms of turbofan engine, ws10 "Taihang" engine product has been very mature, and its performance and service life have been greatly improved compared with the early stage. At present, it has been adopted in large quantities in China's active fighters, and the number of orders is in the stage of continuous improvement; The research and development of new turbofan engine with large bypass ratio continues to advance, and the downstream replacement demand is also strong China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities pointed out that in terms of turboshaft engine, the company's turboshaft engine is used for new general-purpose helicopters, and the two aircraft special AVIC Zhuzhou Aviation Power Industrial Park has provided strong capacity support for the volume of subsequent products. We expect that the demand for military aero engines in China will be about 20000 units in the next 20 years, and the market space will be about 250 billion yuan.
\u3000\u3000 Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760)
Under AVIC group, the company completed major asset restructuring and achieved overall listing at the end of 2017, becoming the only listing platform for A-share fighters, with obvious scarcity. Guosheng Securities pointed out that under the background of "replenishment" and "quality improvement" of China's military aircraft, the J-11, 15 and 16, the main fighters of Shenfei, will usher in order growth. At present, China's military manufacturing industry is in a period of great development opportunities. The transformation of modern war mode, the needs of our military's strategic transformation and the changes in the surrounding situation have increased and accelerated the demand of the Navy and air force for advanced fighters. The technology of the company's main models J-11, 15 and 16 in production has become mature, and we expect to form a stable and increasing output. Taking into account the greater certainty of the company's order demand, the higher certainty of the company's phased performance due to the active promotion of balanced production, and the gradual operation of raised investment projects, the production capacity is expected to continue to expand.
\u3000\u3000 China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372) China Avionics Systems Co.Ltd(600372)
The company is a major supplier of avionics systems for Chinese military aircraft and will continue to benefit from the equipment construction process. The company has strong downstream demand and sufficient orders on hand, and the orders have increased significantly compared with the same period in 2020 and the beginning of 2021. The company is expected to usher in accelerated growth Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) pointed out that the company is the professional integration and industrialization development platform of avionics system under AVIC group, and has been promoting reform recently. For example, Kaitian electronics, a holding subsidiary, plans to carry out mixed ownership reform by combining core employee shareholding, introduction of strategic investors, capital increase of former shareholders and conversion of state-owned exclusive capital reserve. By the end of December 2021, the company has managed 5 research institutes and 9 companies in the avionics sector, and the company has room for capital operation. With the accelerated reform of state-owned enterprises, the company is expected to benefit in the future.
\u3000\u3000 China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733)
The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company from 1.35 billion yuan to 1.55 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 123% to 156%. Benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry, the performance increased rapidly in 2021. At the same time, the company's revenue of high value-added products increased rapidly, the scale effect appeared, and the profitability improved Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) pointed out that electronic components are widely used in aviation, aerospace, ships, weapons, electronic countermeasures and other military fields, benefiting from the modernization of national defense and the army, and the demand continues to increase. In addition, domestic substitution is expected to accelerate and increase the demand for domestic electronic components. Looking forward to 2022, military electronic components are expected to continue the high boom and the company's performance is expected to maintain rapid growth thanks to the increased demand for national defense and military modernization and the acceleration of domestic substitution.
