China’s covid-19 testing policy ushered in new changes.
On March 11, the National Health Commission officially released the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial), which made it clear that community residents who need self-test can purchase antigen detection reagents for self-test through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels.
it is worth noting that the covid-19 detection sector of A-Shares was the first to start on the same day, setting off a wave of limit trading, and more than 20 stocks gained the limit trading. Different from the previous concept speculation, this wave of covid-19 detection concept stocks suddenly soared, attracting the participation of institutional funds. After the close of the day, the dragon and tiger list data disclosed by Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) and Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) showed that the special seats of many institutions were frantically scavenging
The market expects that with the implementation of the policy, the demand for antigenic testing reagents in China will increase significantly Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that with reference to overseas distribution policies, if China’s antigen self-test kit is officially liberalized, it is expected that the market scale of covid-19 antigen self-test kit in China is expected to reach 17.7-26.6 billion yuan per month and 2124319.2 billion yuan per year.
National Health Commission’s heavyweight document
On March 11, the application scheme for covid-19 virus antigen detection (Trial) released by the National Health Commission attracted market attention.
According to the National Health Protection Committee, after studying, the State Council has decided to add the antigen test to the New Coronavirus disease prevention and control mechanism integrated group on the basis of nucleic acid detection, and has formulated the “COVID-19 virus antigen detection application plan” (Trial Implementation). The scheme specifies the applicable population for antigen testing:
First, those who go to grass-roots medical and health institutions with respiratory tract, fever and other symptoms within 5 days;
Second, isolate observers, including those in home isolation observation, close connection and secondary close connection, entry isolation observation, sealing and control area and control area;
Third, community residents who need antigen self-test.
at the same time, the plan points out that community residents who need self-test can purchase antigen test reagents for self-test through retail pharmacies, online sales platforms and other channels
If the antigen test is positive, regardless of whether there are respiratory tract, fever and other symptoms, the residents shall immediately report to the community (Village) where they are located. The community (Village) shall contact the emergency center to transfer the residents to the medical institution with fever clinic for nucleic acid test in accordance with covid-19 guidelines for the transfer of personnel related to the pneumonia epidemic.
If the antigen test is negative, asymptomatic residents can observe closely and carry out antigen test or nucleic acid test when necessary; Residents with symptoms are advised to go to the medical institution with fever clinic as soon as possible for nucleic acid testing; If it is inconvenient to see a doctor, you should isolate yourself at home, avoid going out for activities, and conduct antigen self-test once a day for 5 consecutive days.
At the same time, the protocol clearly states that nucleic acid detection is the basis for the diagnosis of covid-19 virus infection. In the process of nucleic acid test confirmation, if the nucleic acid test is positive, no matter whether the antigen test result is positive or negative, corresponding measures shall be taken according to covid-19 virus infected patients or covid-19 pneumonia diagnosed patients; If the nucleic acid test is negative but the antigen test is positive, it shall be regarded as covid-19 virus infected, take centralized isolation and other measures, closely observe and continuously carry out nucleic acid test.
once the plan was disclosed, it triggered a heated discussion in the market. Some analysts believe that covid-19 antigen detection may become an important supplementary means for epidemic prevention and control in China, and the demand for antigenic detection reagents in the market will increase greatly
covid-19 detection crazy rising limit tide
In fact, during the A-share trading session on March 11, a document on the application of covid-19 virus antigen detection has been uploaded in the market.
In the afternoon of the same day, the market funds moved on hearing the wind, covid-19 detection of a shares, covid-19 drugs and other anti epidemic theme sectors set off a wave of daily limit, Shanghai Labway Clinical Laboratory Co.Ltd(301060) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) were all 20cm daily limit, Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) , Saili medical and other super 20 shares were closed.
As of the close, covid-19 index rose 7.77%, becoming one of the best performing sectors of A-Shares on the day. According to the data, as of the closing of the day, the total market value of constituent stocks in covid-19 detection sector had reached 713.1 billion yuan, soaring nearly 60 billion yuan in a single day.
In terms of main funds, the net inflow of main funds of covid-19 detection sector reached 3.634 billion yuan on that day, ranking first in the two cities. Different from the previous concept speculation, this wave of covid-19 detection concept stocks suddenly soared, attracting the participation of institutional funds.
After trading on March 11, Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) and other daily limit stocks disclosed the data of dragon and tiger list. Among the top five buying seats, institutional seats appeared frequently:
Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) soared by more than 18% on the same day. According to the data of the dragon and tiger list, among the top five buying seats, 4 are institutional seats, and the total purchase of four institutional seats is 512 million yuan; The Shanghai Stock connect sold 942058 million yuan;
Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) gained 20% of the daily limit. According to the data of the dragon and tiger list, among the top five buying seats, institutions also occupied 4 seats, and the total purchase of four institutional seats was 107 million yuan; In addition, one institutional seat was sold for 8.5849 million yuan;
Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , which rose 20% on the same day, was also favored by institutional funds. According to the data of the dragon and tiger list, the two institutions bought 40.077 million yuan in total;
Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , according to the dragon and tiger list data, one institutional seat bought a net 96.7 million yuan, but three institutional seats sold Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) , with a total sales of 320 million yuan.
However, it is worth noting that after trading on March 11, several covid-19 detection concept stocks issued stock price change announcements, suggesting relevant risks.
Shenzhen Yhlo Biotech Co.Ltd(688575) announcement: as of the date of this announcement, the company’s covid-19 virus antigen testing products have not obtained the registration certificate issued by the Chinese drug administration. Please invest rationally and pay attention to investment risks.
Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) also announced that up to now, the company’s covid-19 antigen detection reagent has not obtained the Chinese certification certificate, and the company will fulfill the obligation of announcement and ask investors to make a rational prediction.
In the face of this wave of market, there are clarified listed companies, but also take the initiative to disclose the latest progress of antigen detection reagents.
In March 11th, Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) announced that New Coronavirus’s antigenic testing kit, a wholly owned subsidiary of Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) , was independently received by the State Administration of drug supervision and administration.
Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) also told the media that covid-19 virus antigen detection products will be used as medical devices and can be listed in China only after being approved by the drug evaluation center (CDE) of the State Food and drug administration. As for the purchase method, there may be government centralized purchase, personal pharmacy purchase and online purchase.
how big is the future market
With the normalization of the epidemic situation, covid-19 detection has become the most important link in the epidemic prevention and control.
At present, there are three main methods for covid-19 detection, namely nucleic acid detection, antigen detection and antibody detection. The detection mechanism, detection cost and detection sensitivity of the three methods are different.
Nucleic acid detection: the detection sensitivity is the highest, which is the “gold standard” for the diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia, but the detection requirements are high and the cost is high. Generally, the results are produced in 24 hours, and the detection takes a long time;
Antigen detection: the operation is simple and convenient, no special instrument is required, and the results can be obtained in 15 minutes at the fastest. The disadvantage is that the sensitivity is lower than that of nucleic acid detection;
Antibody detection is similar to antigen detection in operation and time, but it can not detect patients in the infection window.
At present, nucleic acid detection is mainly used in China, while covid-19 detection abroad is mainly antigen detection.
In fact, with the gradual maturity of antigen detection products, the sensitivity can reach more than 90%, which can replace nucleic acid reagents. According to official data, the accuracy of antigen self-test version of Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) exported to the United States is 92.9%. The British health and safety agency said that the results of rapid antigen detection are accurate enough. Research shows that there are less than three false positive results for every 10000 rapid antigen detection, which is enough to accurately “capture” asymptomatic infected people.
Moreover, the simplicity of antigen detection is suitable for home self-examination, which can effectively reduce the risk of exposure and the occupation of resources in hospitals and third-party laboratories. It is usually used for residents’ wide-ranging general screening self-examination, which can effectively supplement nucleic acid detection.
it can be predicted that the market demand for anti original detection reagents will increase greatly. How large will the market scale be in the future
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) in the research report, it is pointed out that referring to the overseas distribution policy, the distribution frequency of overseas covid-19 antigen self-test kit varies significantly, ranging from 2 to 10 times per capita. At present, the ex factory unit price of China’s covid-19 antigen self-test kit is about US $1-1.5. If China’s antigen self-test kit is officially liberalized, referring to overseas policies and assuming the minimum frequency twice a month, it is expected that the market scale of China’s covid-19 antigen self-test kit is expected to reach 17.7-26.6 billion yuan per month and 2124319.2 billion yuan per year. Taking into account the purchase by residents and enterprises at their own expense, it is expected that the purchase demand of covid-19 antigen detection products is expected to further increase.
at present, the production capacity of covid-19 antigen detection reagents in China is sufficient. In 2021, China exported 66.9 billion yuan of covid-19 detection kits overseas. Industry insiders pointed out that when relevant enterprises get the product approval and listing documents in China, they can soon be listed in the mainland
According to the latest comments of deppon securities, China’s covid-19 antigen detection scheme (Trial) has been officially released and is optimistic about the opportunities of relevant industries. It is suggested to pay attention to three lines, including: 1) companies whose products have been listed and sold in Europe and America, such as Zhejiang Orient Gene Biotech Co.Ltd(688298) , Hangzhou Biotest Biotech Co.Ltd(688767) , an Xu biology, Hangzhou Alltest Biotech Co.Ltd(688606) , Andon Health Co.Ltd(002432) and companies whose professional antigen detection has been approved in China, such as Guangzhou Wondfo Biotech Co.Ltd(300482) Bgi Genomics Co.Ltd(300676) etc; 2) Companies with OTC sales channels, such as Jiangsu Yuyue Medical Equipment And Supply Co.Ltd(002223) , Cofoe Medical Technology Co.Ltd(301087) , etc; 3) Pharmacy section, etc.
