Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the sales volume of China’s automobile market decreased month on month in February 2022, but increased rapidly year-on-year. On March 11, the data released by China Automobile Association showed that China’s automobile sales volume in February was 1.737 million, up 18.7% year-on-year and down 31.4% month on month; From January to February, it was 4.268 million, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%. Among them, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in February was 334000, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 times.
The financial Associated Press reporter counted the sales of 15 listed auto enterprises in February, of which 12 auto enterprises showed year-on-year growth, accounting for 80%. The China Automobile Association said that the reasons for the sharp decline month on month and year-on-year growth are as follows: first, new energy and automobile exports play a positive role in promoting; Second, the demand for inventory replenishment drives growth. However, in the face of a more complex external environment, CAAC expressed a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the future development of the automotive industry.
uneven supply of chips leads to joint venture and independent differentiation
In February, chip supply once again became one of the key factors affecting the production and sales of automobile enterprises. Since last year, German and Japanese brands have been seriously hampered by the shortage of chips, and the channel terminals have been in a low inventory state for a long time. By 2022, the chip supply of joint venture brands has generally improved. While deepening the inventory, the sales volume is also growing, which drives the growth of the overall sales volume of the group.
Specifically, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , Dongfeng Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) all showed year-on-year growth of more than 30%. Among them, SAIC Volkswagen, a German brand, sold 90000 vehicles per month in February, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79%; From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of SAIC Volkswagen reached 221000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 62%. Thanks to this, the overall sales volume in Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) 2 month increased by 31% year-on-year to 322000 vehicles.
Similarly, the increase in sales of Japanese brands has also driven the sales growth of Dongfeng Group and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . Among them, Dongfeng Nissan / Qichen sold 85000 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of 50.34%; Dongfeng Honda sold 59000 vehicles in February, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. GAC Honda 57000, up 39.06% year-on-year; GAC Toyota 50000 vehicles, an increase of 20.72% year-on-year.
In contrast, the sales volume of independent brands Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) declined significantly in February Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2 month sales of 71000 vehicles, down 20.5%. For the reasons for the decline in sales, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) said that it was mainly due to the insufficient supply of body electronic stability system (ESP) produced by Bosch.
Also affected by the chip, the sales “responsibility” of Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) cs75 series, cs55 series and escape series has not been fully released. In addition, in order to alleviate the impact of the shortage of auto chips, Geely Automobile will also implement a supply chain replacement scheme in the second quarter of this year to alleviate the current limited production capacity pressure, the financial Associated Press previously reported.
“Last year, it was in a low inventory state, and the cars were not sold enough due to the shortage of chips. At present, the chip supply has changed as a whole, and enterprises began to replenish inventory at this stage.” Xu Haidong, deputy chief engineer of China Automobile Industry Association, said that the inventory shortage in China’s automobile market will be more than 1 million in 2021. As long as the chip supply is sufficient, automobile enterprises will continue to replenish the inventory, so as to maintain the stability of the market.
The previous day, the China Automobile Circulation Association released the survey results of “automobile dealer inventory” in February. The comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in that month was 1.85, up 26.7% month on month and 10.1% year-on-year. The Circulation Association believes that dealers entered the replenishment stage at the end of February, and the inventory level is above the warning line.
new energy and export “two carriages” in chengla EMU city
The Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) market remained strong in mid February, with production and sales reaching 368000 and 334000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 times and 1.8 times respectively. Among them, 246000 pure electric passenger cars were sold, a year-on-year increase of 154.5%; Although the sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles was only 75000, it increased by 338.6%, which played an important role in driving the overall rise of the car market.
From January to February, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicle market reached 765000, with a year-on-year increase of 154.7%. Among them, 581000 pure electric passenger vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 138%; A total of 160000 plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 251.1%.
It is worth mentioning that relying on the good performance of new energy vehicles, Byd Company Limited(002594) surpassed Geely, Chang’an, great wall and other old rivals in February and jumped to the “first brother of independent brands”. According to the data, in Byd Company Limited(002594) 2 month, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 88000. From its composition, the sales volume of pure electric passenger vehicles was 43000, while the sales volume of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles exceeded that of pure electric vehicles, reaching 44000.
According to Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the passenger Federation, the rising oil price has turned many consumers to plug-in hybrid models with lower fuel consumption. “The purchase of fuel vehicles by ordinary consumers has brought a great psychological burden. In addition, some industries have suffered losses under the impact of the recent epidemic, and the purchasing power of many entry-level family users has been affected to a certain extent, which has a direct impact on the market demand of traditional fuel vehicles.” Cui Dongshu believes that “the rise in oil prices will play a good role in promoting the development of the global new energy vehicle market, especially accelerating the iteration of plug-in hybrid vehicles to traditional fuel vehicles, which will bring some increment to the new energy vehicle market.”
In fact, more and more independent brands began to deploy plug-in hybrid technology, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) ‘s DM-I system, Chery Kunpeng DHT system, Great Wall lemon DHT system and Geely Raytheon hi · x hybrid system. Based on this, Cui Dongshu predicts that although the market share of class a models is less than that of class A00 and class B in the “dumbbell” new energy market, the class a new energy market will usher in explosive growth in plug-in hybrid models.
In addition to the pulling effect of new energy vehicles, the continuous growth of the export market has also stabilized the development of China’s auto market to a certain extent. According to the data of China Automobile Association, in February, automobile enterprises exported 180000 vehicles, a month on month decrease of 21.9% and a year-on-year increase of 60.8%, continuing to maintain a significant growth, while the contribution of new energy vehicle export growth reached 52.0%.
“Affected by the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the external environment of the industry is more complex. In addition, factors such as the shortage of chips and the continuous rise of raw material costs still affect the production and operation of enterprises, and the task of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is very arduous.” China Automobile Association has maintained a cautious and optimistic attitude towards the future development of the automobile industry.
