Since this year, driven by the strong demand for the installation of terminal power stations, prices have risen continuously. According to the data of Longzhong information, on March 10, the quotation of EVA photovoltaic grade was 22200 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 15% compared with the quotation after the Spring Festival (February 7).
Although there is still a gap from the high point of 30000 yuan / ton last year, the supply and demand of EVA photovoltaic material is tight under the high boom demand, which is still the common expectation of the industry. In addition, sierbang EVA plant, a subsidiary of Chinese EVA particle manufacturer Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ( Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) . SZ), was transformed and shut down this month, further stimulating the tight supply situation.
As one of the important auxiliary materials of photovoltaic modules, the price trend of EVA film is closely related to the demand of photovoltaic installation. Industry analysts told the financial associated press that the relationship between supply and demand determines the price. After the demand is determined, the EVA price will have room to rise.
eva price rebounds
EVA is widely used in photovoltaic, cable material, foaming and other industries, among which photovoltaic has become one of the largest downstream of EVA. Since this year, stimulated by the off-season of photovoltaic installation, EVA prices have rebounded significantly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of EVA in China was 1940000 yuan / ton on February 28 and 2066667 yuan / ton on March 7. The increase rate in the week was 6.53%, up 15.89% compared with February 1.
Liu pengpeng, an analyst at Longzhong information, told the associated press that due to the strong demand for downstream photovoltaic, EVA manufacturers had full orders in January and February this year. Since this month, downstream photovoltaic module plants still need to prepare goods for purchase, but in the early stage, the inventory of manufacturers such as sipang is basically low, the market circulation spot is limited, and the supply of goods is tight.
Since last year, EVA's new production capacity has been implemented successively, including the successful CCCC of 100000 tons / EVA resin plant of China Science and technology refining and Chemical Corporation, and the successful feeding of 300000 tons / year EVA plant of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) holding company Zhejiang Petrochemical. At present, photovoltaic products have been successfully produced, which alleviates the shortage of market supply to a certain extent.
According to Liu pengpeng, the high VA content of EVA photovoltaic material determines its high production threshold and long production expansion cycle. Although the operation technology tends to be mature and the threshold has been reduced, the equipment performance is still an important factor limiting the production capacity.
Therefore, even in the case of high terminal demand, EVA manufacturers usually formulate strict shutdown and maintenance plans Levima Advanced Materials Corporation(003022) eva unit will be shut down on February 28 for technical upgrading and capacity expansion. The estimated shutdown time is 28 days; Two months after the EVA unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical is put into production, it is planned to be overhauled for 5-7 days in March, and Yangzi Petrochemical is planned to be overhauled for nearly two months from March 18 to May 13.
Under the expectation of tight supply, EVA transaction price may continue to rebound in the short term. In addition, the recent rise in crude oil prices has strengthened the cost support of EVA upstream vinyl acetate, and the market trend is strong.
demand driven prices still have room to rise
Downstream demand is an important factor affecting the price trend of EVA. Subject to the limited actual increment, photovoltaic EVA resin may continue the tight pattern of supply and demand in 2022.
Jibang consulting believes that the actual output of EVA particles tells the supply bottleneck in 2022. According to the calculation of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Research Report, the global demand for photovoltaic materials in 2022 is about 933000 tons, based on the global installed capacity of 224gw on the DC side (200GW on the AC side), the unit average power of modules is 200W, and the unit average gram weight of EVA particles is 0.5g/m2. In terms of supply, the production of photovoltaic materials is affected by subjective selection and device maintenance. Under optimistic circumstances, the annual output of photovoltaic materials in 2022 is about 998000 tons.
In this regard, Liu pengpeng told the financial associated press that the expectation of PV installation in the market this year is generally high. Judging from the trend of EVA price last year, EVA may be adjusted in the short term, and the transaction price will be reduced in the second quarter. However, under the influence of PV installation demand in the third and fourth quarters, EVA price will still have room to rise, and the price will still be at a high level compared with previous years.
Therefore, after experiencing the fluctuation in the fourth quarter of last year, EVA production enterprises will also benefit from the recovery of demand, and the high profitability is expected to continue. The same is true for the downstream EVA film factory. According to the announcement of Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) ( Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) . SH) performance express, the company achieved a revenue of 3.104 billion yuan last year, an increase of 109.54% over the same period last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was about 257 million yuan, an increase of 15.34% over the same period last year. In addition, Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) ( Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) . SH) achieved an operating revenue of 8.93 billion yuan in the first three quarters of last year, a year-on-year increase of 63.27%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.336 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.37%.
