Industry status
We compared the global performance and development plan of power battery in combination with the financial reports and industry trends of major lithium battery enterprises in Japan and South Korea in 2021 and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) .
Commentary
Industry trend: according to the data of China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance and SNE, the global installed capacity reached 296.8gwh in 2021, an increase of 113.4% at the same time; Among them, China's installed capacity was 154.5gwh, an increase of 141.5% at the same time; The overseas installed capacity was 142.2gwh, an increase of 89.5% at the same time; China's installed capacity accounts for 52%, and the growth rate of installed capacity is higher than overseas.
Battery business revenue: in 2021, lges / Panasonic / Samsung SDI / ski achieved revenue of 100.73/42.3/61.58/17.01 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 39% / 15% / 21% / 81%. Among them, the sales volume of lges dropped in the short term due to the shutdown, maintenance / upgrading caused by the recall of general bolt and energy storage battery and the lack of core in the European market. The growth rate of Samsung SDI and Panasonic slowed down due to the lack of core in the same industry; Ski benefited from the release of new production capacity and orders. In 2021, the installed capacity increased by 105% year-on-year, driving the high growth of annual revenue.
Profitability: operating profit of battery business: in 2021, lges / Panasonic / Samsung SDI achieved an operating profit of RMB 4.47/4.04/3.02 billion respectively, with an operating profit margin of 4.4% / 9.5% / 4.9%; Ski had an operating loss of 3.82 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of - 22.4%. Panasonic benefited from the growth of Tesla sales volume and energy storage battery sales, Samsung SDI benefited from the gradual large volume of the new generation gen.5 battery, and the operating profit margin increased steadily.
The one-time expenses incurred by the recall of lges power / energy storage business have an operating loss of - 1.57 / - 2.54 billion yuan. If the one-time expenses are excluded, lges's battery business is expected to make a profit of 9.77 billion yuan and an operating profit margin of 9.7%. Ski's new production capacity in Yancheng, China is still in a climbing period, the initial cost is high, and the company's operating profit loss is caused by the superposition of high staff year-end bonus provision, raw material price rise and other factors. However, the loss range has narrowed year-on-year in 2020, and the company is expected to reach the breakeven point in 4q22.
Capacity planning: in 2021, the global battery leaders have increased their production. According to the company's announcement and our calculation, the battery capacity of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) / lges / Panasonic / Samsung SDI / ski by the end of 2021 was 371 / 155 / 65 / 38 / 40gwh respectively, and the battery capacity by 2025e was 896 / 405 / 81 / 73 / 222gwh respectively. The capacity planning has been differentiated. Among them, the expansion speed of Ningde, lges and ski is more radical, Panasonic and Samsung SDI are relatively conservative.
Valuation and recommendations
To recommend the industry chain's leading link in each link of the industry chain and the second-line high-quality enterprise at each link of the industry chain and to recommend the industry chain's leading links and second-line quality enterprises: 30 Huangshan Novel Co.Ltd(002014) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\ Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Wolong Electric Group Co.Ltd(600580) .
Risk
The global sales volume of new energy vehicles was lower than expected, and the price of upstream raw materials increased more than expected.
