On March 11, the three major stock indexes fell sharply in the morning, falling more than 2% in the day; In the afternoon, driven by the financial, wine and other sectors, the Shanghai index rebounded and rose. The Shenzhen Composite Index rose slightly, and the gem index rose more than 1% to recover 2650 points; The turnover of the two cities has exceeded trillion for seven consecutive trading days, and the net sales of funds from the north have exceeded 5 billion yuan.
As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.41% to 330975 points, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.62% to 1247737 points, and the gem index rose 1.15% to 266546 points; The total turnover of the two cities was 1050.2 billion yuan, and the net sale of funds from the North was 5.042 billion yuan.
On the disk, medical care, agriculture, securities companies, medicine, food and beverage, tourism and other sectors rose, wine making, military industry, banking, real estate and other sectors rose, while electricity, oil, construction, steel, nonferrous metals, gas and other sectors weakened; Covid-19 detection, covid-19 drugs, prefabricated dishes, digital currency, biological vaccine, assisted reproduction and other subjects are active.
For the recent market trend, Guosheng Securities pointed out that the recent disk trend may be similar to that at the end of July last year. It is a short-term rapid and large-scale decline, leaving a long shadow line and a bottom rebound. At present, this position is that we can’t shrink and fall, and we can’t see a turnaround until the large-scale decline breaks out of panic. Gem refers to the end of the adjustment of the five waves of decline in the downward channel. The current market decline is mainly due to international contradictions and inflation expectations, and more is the venting of emotions; With the government’s determination to stabilize growth, monetary and credit policies will remain moderate in the future. At present, the Shanghai composite index is near 3300, and the corresponding PE is only 12 times. The valuation advantage is very obvious. From a rational point of view, the negative in essence is limited. There is a demand for covering the gap formed on Thursday, and the gem index is also suppressed by the 60 minute mA20 average. It is suggested to pay attention to position control, pay attention to the strength of market pullback in the short term, pay attention to large infrastructure sectors related to the main line of steady growth, track repair opportunities such as photovoltaic and green power, and the short-term active covid-19 concept.
Galaxy Securities said that from the perspective of capital, the number of new funds has decreased month by month since the beginning of the year, and the northward funds show a net inflow trend as a whole. The incremental funds in the stock market may tighten month on month in 2022, but the net inflow trend is maintained as a whole. In terms of profitability, the growth rate of all a profits in the second half of 2022 may enter the stage of stabilization and recovery. The marginal easing of the money credit cycle is expected to alleviate the cost pressure of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the gradual recovery of the demand side is expected to improve enterprise orders. At the same time, the improvement of the economy will also drive the recovery of enterprise profits. In terms of valuation, the overall bubble of A shares has been squeezed, valuations continue to digest, and the total A valuation is currently in a relatively low historical position. In 2022, valuations were in the lower historical sub sectors of electronic, pharmaceutical and biological sectors, or the momentum of valuation uplift. When the time comes to accumulate strength, the value of A-share allocation will gradually appear. Although the A-share market has fallen more than expected recently, the A-share market does not have the basis to fall sharply to the previous low. At the same time, the economy is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. With the recovery of profitability, there is still room for the market to rise after the overall risk of the market is digested.
