Today, the A-share market staged a "deep V" trend again. In the afternoon, the stock index rose rapidly and turned red successfully. Moreover, there were also changes in the bond market in the afternoon, the Treasury bond futures rose sharply, and the yield of treasury bonds decreased significantly.
Shortly thereafter, the financial data in February revealed that the market's expectation of further easing of the monetary environment increased.
According to the financial data released by the people's Bank of China in February:
In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan;
At the end of February, the balance of broad money (M2) was 244.15 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, lower than 9.8% of the previous month;
According to preliminary statistics, the increment of social financing scale in February was 1.19 trillion yuan, 531.5 billion yuan less than that in the same period of last year;
According to preliminary statistics, the stock of social financing scale at the end of February was 321.12 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, lower than 10.5% of the previous month.
Industry experts believe that the financial data in February were lower than the previous market expectations, especially the year-on-year increase in new credit, which made it more necessary and urgent to expand the scale of new loans. The superimposed external environment was more complex and uncertain, and the possibility of the people's Bank of China continuing to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates increased.
new credit increased less year-on-year
Data show that RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan in February, a year-on-year decrease of 125.8 billion yuan. In terms of sub sectors, household loans decreased by 336.9 billion yuan, including 291.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and 45.9 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; Loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 1.24 trillion yuan, including 411.1 billion yuan in short-term loans, 505.2 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans and 305.2 billion yuan in bill financing; Loans from non banking financial institutions increased by 179 billion yuan.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) chief co economist Mingming said that there are three main reasons for the weak performance of new credit data in February. First, for seasonal reasons, February is the traditional credit month; Second, the demand for credit is still weak under the influence of the epidemic; Third, the real estate industry is still in the process of bottoming, which is reflected in the insufficient demand for medium and long-term loans.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) analyst Liu Wenqi suggested that in terms of structure, residents' medium and long-term loans are still obviously subject to the adjustment of the real estate market; Enterprise short-term loans and bill financing continued to increase year-on-year. Although it reflects the intention of banks to expand credit, it also reflects the obvious tendency of short-term financing; The medium and long-term loans of enterprises further point to the financing demand, which needs to be boosted.
financing demand is still insufficient
In terms of social finance, the data showed that RMB loans to the real economy increased by 908.4 billion yuan in the same month, a year-on-year decrease of 432.9 billion yuan; Foreign currency loans to the real economy increased by 48 billion yuan, an increase of 1.6 billion yuan year-on-year; Entrusted loans decreased by 7.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6 billion yuan; Trust loans decreased by 75.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5 billion yuan; Undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 422.8 billion yuan, an increase of 486.7 billion yuan year-on-year; The net financing of corporate bonds was 337.7 billion yuan, an increase of 202.1 billion yuan year-on-year; The net financing of government bonds was 272.2 billion yuan, an increase of 170.5 billion yuan year-on-year; Domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 58.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8 billion yuan.
In terms of structure, Zhou Maohua, macro researcher of China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) financial market department, believes that the incremental data of social finance in February was lower than expected, which was mainly dragged down by the slowdown of new credit and the contraction of off balance sheet financing, reflecting the weak financing demand of the real economy. The issuance of corporate bonds and special bonds increased year-on-year. On the one hand, it reflects that China's credit environment has warmed up; On the other hand, the strong issuance of special bonds indicates that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to improve in the future.
From the perspective of M2, Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) said that the steady supply of credit in February helped to stabilize the growth rate of M2. The rapid issuance of government bonds and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure had a neutral impact on m2. However, due to the sharp rise of the base in February last year, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 fell to 9.2% in February this year.
In addition, insiders suggested that factors such as the issuance of local government bonds in February increased financial deposits more, which meant that deposits shifted from enterprises and residents to government departments, which reduced the M2 growth rate of the month to a certain extent.
policy relaxation and expected warming
According to the financing needs of the real economy reflected in the latest financial data, what measures may be taken by the follow-up monetary policy?
In the view of insiders, based on the policy orientation of stable growth and the current weak financing demand, it is more necessary to expand the scale of new credit, which requires further measures at the policy level.
Mingming believes that further RRR reduction is an option, whether from the perspective of broadening credit, reducing costs, dredging the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, or from the perspective of supplementing the capital gap and providing medium and long-term incremental funds.
Zhou Maohua said that as the data of social finance and new credit were less than expected, the financing demand of the real economy was weak, and the market expectation of the people's Bank of China's further reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates increased. At present, China's demand recovery is weak, the pressure on the economy is still large, and the possibility of the people's Bank of China using interest rate instruments and deposit reserve instruments appropriately increases.
Some institutions also believe that in the face of complex external environment, structural monetary policy tools have more flexible use space.
It is worth mentioning that in the afternoon of the 11th, there were changes in the stock and bond markets. A shares once again walked out of the "deep V" market, and the rebound was led by the financial sector, which benefited from monetary easing. At the same time, there were also changes in the bond market. Treasury bond futures rose sharply in the afternoon and finally rose sharply.
This phenomenon is interpreted by many market people as a result of expectations for good policies.
