The Shanghai Composite Index finally rebounded on the 10th after completing the "deep V" reversal on the 9th. The data show that the bottom fund is still flowing into the market. In the first three trading days of this week, the shares of ETFs related to gem, semiconductor, medicine and photovoltaic showed significant growth. At the same time, more and more fund managers are optimistic about the future market of a shares. In their view, after a period of continuous decline, the "selling pressure" of the market has been greatly digested, and high-quality assets have ushered in a better layout time point.
more than stock ETFs received net capital inflow
According to the data of China stock market news choice, the share of Hua'an gem 50ETF increased by 7.86 in the first three trading days of this week. Calculated according to the average transaction price of 1.12 yuan, the ETF has received an inflow of 1.622 billion yuan since this week.
In addition, the shares of e-fund gem ETF, Huaxia Guozheng semiconductor chip ETF, e-fund CSI 300 pharmaceutical ETF, Huatai Bairui Zhongzheng photovoltaic industry ETF and guolian'an Zhongzheng semiconductor ETF have increased by more than 300 million since this week.
For this round of decline, many institutions attribute it to: the sharp rise in the market over the past three years has led to high valuations, absolute return capital stop losses, and geopolitical risks.
Dai Jie, fund manager of Huian fund, analyzed that this round of adjustment began in mid December 2021. At the beginning, the fluctuation of the market came from the periodic shock caused by the large increase of A-share high-quality companies and the high valuation level in the past three years. Subsequently, the volatility of US stocks increased, and the NASDAQ index adjusted at the level of 15% to 20%, which had a further impact on the A-share market. Part of the game funds were significantly switched to value stocks, resulting in further pressure on the growth stocks with heavy institutional positions.
"After the market decline exceeds 10%, a large number of funds aiming at absolute income (fixed income +, private placement, bank financial management subsidiaries, etc.) At the beginning of indiscriminate position cutting, such funds can not withstand large fluctuations. No matter whether the stock fundamentals have changed or whether the valuation has been very low, they are selling at a stop loss. Finally, the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine has had an impact on the global capital market, which has exacerbated the panic in the already fragile A-share market. " Dai Jie said.
Standing at the current time point, Dai Jie said that at present, most fixed income + product equity positions have been very low, and a large number of private placement positions may be less than 30%. The pressure of stop loss selling of absolute return funds should have been greatly digested.
fund manager sends a letter to investors
On the occasion of the sharp shock of the A-share market, many fund managers issued a "letter to investors". In their view, the current risk factors have been gradually digested and can be more optimistic in the future.
"Since the beginning of the year, we and all investors have suffered together for more than two months. The current rapid decline is easy to make people feel negative, but reason tells us that we should be optimistic. Although we may still suffer for some time in the future, as long as we stay on the card table, we still have a chance." Tian Hong fund manager Jiang Xiaoli said.
Luo Shifeng, research director of Nord fund, said that there is no need to be too pessimistic at the current time point. The possibility of Russia Ukraine conflict expanding out of control is not high. The worst time of the market is gradually passing. He maintained a relatively optimistic attitude towards the future market.
\u3000\u3000 "From the medium and long-term perspective, we remain relatively optimistic. We still adhere to the relatively long-term dimension of industry allocation. Our portfolio is dominated by large consumption and pharmaceutical industries, supplemented by sub industries such as technology and manufacturing with global competitive advantages. In the environment of relatively pessimistic market and sharp decline in individual stock valuations, we think it is a good choice A better layout time point for qualitative assets. " Luo Shifeng said.
Zhou Ping, director of China quantitative investment of lubemaker, said in the market outlook in March that the continuous decline makes investors panic, but the market risk is often released with the decline, that is, "the opportunity is falling out". The share prices of many high-quality companies have retreated by more than 30% from their recent highs, and the valuation has become attractive without deteriorating fundamentals. For long-term investors, we can be more optimistic now than before the crash.
ten billion private placement products frequently "red light"
Just a few days ago, the news that a number of 10 billion private placement products touched the early warning line triggered concerns in the market. Many industry insiders said that the sharp decline of A-Shares in the early stage caused the net value of a large number of private placement products to fall below the warning line, and some 10 billion private placement faces the pressure of being forced to cut positions. However, with the stabilization of A-share market sentiment, the pressure of 10 billion private placement being forced to cut positions will be relieved, and high boom tracks such as new energy, military industry and semiconductors still deserve attention.
On the 9th, the news that the net value of another 10 billion private placement fell below the early warning line spread in the industry.
It is reported that a 10 billion level macro strategy private placement in Zhejiang issued a temporary announcement that its XX Multi Strategy connection No. 6 product's recent net value has touched the early warning line of 0.75 yuan, but has not touched the stop loss line.
Coincidentally, just two days ago, Shifeng asset's "Duxing No. 18 A / B / C" has also touched the early warning line of 0.85 yuan. On March 7, the estimated net value of the fund was lower than the early warning line agreed in the contract. At present, the position of this series of products has been reduced to about 20%.
Since this year, the A-share market has been shaken and adjusted, and many private placement products, including 10 billion private placement, have "red lights". According to the latest statistics of private placement network, as of March 10, there were 1321 products with a net value of less than 0.8 yuan in the whole market, including 142 products of 10 billion private placement.
\u3000\u3000 "Since the beginning of this year, the A-share market has been shaken and adjusted, and the pressure of private placement products with early warning line or liquidation line to reduce their positions has increased sharply, which has further heated the market's concern about negative feedback, especially in the first half of this week. However, after the company's products touch the early warning line, we will consult investors to reduce the early warning line. I hope you will not 'fall before dawn'. " A 10 billion private placement person said frankly.
A-Shares rebounded strongly to ease the pressure of position reduction
When the pressure of 10 billion private placement was forced to reduce its positions was increasing day by day, the "dawn" seemed to come.
According to choice data, the Shanghai composite index opened high on the 9th and began to rise near 2 p.m., forming a V-shaped reversal. On the 10th, A-Shares continued to rebound strongly. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.22% and the gem index rose by more than 2%.
\u3000\u3000 "When some private placement managers distribute products through channels, the contract will stipulate that once the net value of the product falls below 0.8 yuan or 0.7 yuan, the private placement manager must take a certain stop loss operation. Therefore, if the market continues to explore, too many private placements are forced to reduce their positions, which may aggravate the market volatility. However, from historical experience, the sharp decline of the market is more emotional catharsis, and the time rate may not be too long The products I managed on the 9th were added. The rebound on the 10th may be the beginning of market stabilization. Under the policy tone of stable growth, most stocks have fallen out of a very 'attractive' cost performance, and the possibility of negative feedback is not high.
”A private equity founder in Shanghai admitted.
Xingshi investment also said that as the market began to rebound, the negative feedback of private equity funds may weaken. Because some private placements that previously reached the early warning line and stop loss line may have been closed or adjusted in the market decline stage, and the most risky part may have been released.
Gaojing track still attracts attention
The reporter learned that for future investment opportunities, 10 billion private placement will focus on the high-quality targets in the high boom track whose performance can be realized.
Zhu Liang, executive partner and investment director of Danyi investment, said frankly that the rapid decline since March has gradually brought many stocks into the medium and long-term investment range, especially some stocks that have fallen since the Spring Festival last year. Most of the decline has been completed in terms of time (adjusted for more than one year) or range (more than 50% and 60%) at present, three investment directions deserve attention: first, the intellectualization of new energy vehicles; Second, the development opportunities of China National Software And Service Company Limited(600536) saas sector; Third, the recovery of offline consumption in the post epidemic era
Xingshi investment said that the disturbing factors such as the expectation of global stagflation caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the imminent increase of interest rate by the Federal Reserve may be settled in the near future, and the effect of policy underpinning will become more and more obvious. Therefore, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound in stages. Follow up investment should pay more attention to the matching degree between performance and valuation, specifically, the pro cyclical undervalued sector benefiting from the steady growth policy and the "real growth" companies with large long-term growth space and reasonable valuation deserve attention
Yuanlesheng assets also believes that the market has gone through several rounds of risk release. Unless there is extreme systemic risk, there is little downside space. At present, the valuation of first-line targets in the fields of photovoltaic, new energy and military industry has fallen to 30 times and that of second-line targets has fallen to 20 times. There has been no significant change in the fundamentals of these industries, and the future growth of many industries can reach a level of more than 30% at the same time, through the company's research on the industry, photovoltaic, military, some new energy vehicles, some semiconductors, and some basic Baijiu are brighter, so the company's high growth will make the city worth repairing and creating a new high.
