Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern. The three major A-share indexes opened higher in the morning and then maintained a high shock. In the afternoon, the index gradually fell and the increase converged, but the overall situation remained strong.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, on Thursday, with the recovery of the periphery, the market ushered in a long lost general rise, but the market has not yet stabilized effectively. From the disk, the rebound is insufficient, the growth style is obviously better than the value, and the weak trend of value stocks may be related to the continuous reduction of foreign holdings. In addition, we should pay attention to the changes in China's epidemic prevention and control. In the future, should not be blindly optimistic after the market bottomed out and rebounded. Before the mid month interest rate hike of the Federal Reserve was implemented, the market probability was still repeated . In terms of operation, the promising varieties can be absorbed in batches and chased up cautiously.
From a technical point of view, Guosheng securities mentioned that from a rational point of view, the negative in essence is limited the gap formed on Thursday needs to be covered , the gem index is also suppressed by the 60 minute mA20 moving average, it is suggested to pay attention to position control, focus on the strength of market pullback in the short term , focus on large infrastructure sectors related to the main line of steady growth, track repair opportunities such as photovoltaic and green power, and the concept of covid-19 medicine in the short term.
As far as the future is concerned, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that Thursday's overall rebound market belongs to the normal adjustment after continuous sharp correction, and it is not uncommon for the periodic recovery after the concentrated release of panic. However, we once again remind to maintain a certain degree of caution. The current market sentiment is still fragile, and the market may still focus on the structural repair market in shock , It is suggested to focus on the undervalued and high-quality targets that are expected to benefit from policy trends such as "steady growth", digital economy and carbon neutralization.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) also said that is more likely to maintain sideways volatility and prepare for consolidation in the future. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market . It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai stock index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the investment opportunities in pharmaceutical, semiconductor and engineering infrastructure industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
It is noteworthy that Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that is worth cherishing when it falls down from a long time axis . ① Historical data show that the average increase in two years after the decline of CSI 300 by 25% is 8%. If the fixed investment increases by 14%, it will be 29% and 26% respectively after the decline of 30%. ② According to historical data, the average increase of stock fund index in two years after falling by 15% is 15%. If the fixed investment increases by 23%, it will be 70% and 47% respectively after falling by 20%. ③ The time and space of this market adjustment has been obvious. The largest decline of CSI 300 since February 18, 21 has reached 31%, and the stock fund index has reached 16%. We should cherish the present and focus on the future.
Macroscopically, Anxin securities mentioned that has four main lines for the current market: steady growth, high prosperity, post epidemic repair and global inflation . During this period, the trading logic of global inflation is rising, which makes: 1. The market of energy products is relatively dominant; 2. The overvalued value is under further pressure; 3. The transmission of pessimistic expectations from peripheral markets, especially the US stock market; 4. Cost shocks continue to suppress the midstream manufacturing industry. For the worry about global inflation, we believe that although it may be difficult to end in the short term, we may pay more attention to its structural impact under the policy tone dominated by us. The follow-up space and sustainability of global inflation in the future still need further observation on the Fed's interest rate hike, China's economic fundamentals and transmission to a shares.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that entered March, the market will pay more attention to the performance of the first quarter report, and Q1 profit exceeding expectations is still the direction highly recognized by the current market . Judging from the current fundamental guidance, the Q1 performance that focuses on is expected to exceed the expected segmentation direction, focusing on intelligence (smart car, smart equipment (AR, VR direction is more obvious), digital economy (data center, Cloud Computing)), new energy (photovoltaic, upstream lithium) New materials (cathode materials, EVA, PVDF, etc.) and PPI chains (aluminum, potash fertilizer, phosphorus chemical industry, petrochemical industry, soda ash, etc.) benefiting from the continuous rise of global commodity prices.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that A shares also have medium and long-term allocation value. It is suggested to pay attention to the low peg variety . The "odds odds odds" of A-Shares have improved, and the probability of geo risk tends to improve. From the perspective of valuation, A-Shares also have medium and long-term allocation value. It is continuously recommended to pay attention to low peg varieties: (1) resources / materials benefiting from the inflation logic of "supply and demand gap" (coal / aluminum / potassium fertilizer); 2) "Old style" steady growth will still bear the role of "stabilizer" (real estate / building materials / coal chemical industry); (3) "New" steady growth, such as benefiting from energy security and low peg direction (digital economy / photovoltaic).
In addition, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) believes that as the window period of the annual report and the first quarterly report approaches, A-share market still has a meal market in the first half of the year . In terms of industry configuration, with the advent of the verification period of the first quarterly report, the boom track leaders such as new energy, semiconductors, medicine and military industry are expected to usher in phased repair, and the essential consumption sectors such as agriculture, food and textile and clothing benefiting from inflation expectations are also expected to usher in performance repair. In the medium term, social service, retail, catering, shipping and other offline economic recovery related industries are also ushering in the layout window period.
