The government work report of this year's two sessions pointed out that we should promote the sustained recovery of consumption. In particular, the report mentioned that we should continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles and encourage local governments to carry out green smart appliances to the countryside and trade in the old for the new.
Since the beginning of the year, the consumer sector has experienced relatively violent fluctuations, and the valuation of the sector has continued to decline. A number of public offering institutions said they were optimistic about the consumption of household appliances and new energy vehicles supported by the policy.
institutions believe that the household appliances sector mentioned in the policy has the investment performance price ratio at present. New energy vehicles are under great pressure on the cost side, but with the support of policies, the prospect of the consumer side is still optimistic
For the repair of consumption scenes, the prevention and control effect of the epidemic is the key. Under the situation of demand for the epidemic, there is still a good prospect for high-end Baijiu, consumer goods and the pig farm on the left side.
institutions are optimistic about the policy support sector
since the beginning of the year, the consumer sector has experienced relatively violent fluctuations, and the valuation of the sector has continued to decline, creating a large decline since the epidemic
Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that the consumer sector is still weak, mainly affected by the epidemic and slow economic recovery. After more than a year of adjustment, the valuation of many high-quality companies has actually been very attractive, providing better allocation opportunities for long-term funds.
Fan Kunxiang, fund manager of HSBC Jinxin consumer bonus fund, said that the recovery of consumption in 2022 is slowly taking place. Although the recovery range and slope are not strong, the current direction is relatively certain, which is mainly divided into two main lines: policy support and scenario recovery.
Bao Jiamin, chief strategist of Xiangcai fund, said that the two sessions proposed to promote consumption to remain normal, which was more supported from the perspective of rescue. With the recurrence of the epidemic, there will be significant differentiation in the consumption sector. The future repair mainly depends on the control of the epidemic and the spontaneous increase of residents' consumption.
In addition, the central government has recently emphasized supporting the consumption of new energy vehicles and encouraging local governments to carry out green smart appliances to the countryside and trade in the old for the new. These directions are also more promising at present.
home and home appliance sectors are cost-effective
The intelligent Equity Investment Department of Zheshang fund told the Chinese reporter of securities companies that the past year was relatively difficult for the optional consumer industry with home theme. "The price of raw materials is rising, and the cost of sea freight is also rising. The decline in real estate sales data in the second half of the year, coupled with the weakening of household terminal consumption, poses great challenges to the industry."
Fan Kunxiang, manager of HSBC Jinxin fund, is optimistic about the follow-up performance of the downstream industrial chain of real estate this year. He believes that the downstream industrial chain of real estate, represented by home appliances and household appliances, is expected to usher in a boom recovery in 2022.
"Look at the completion of real estate in the short term, new construction in the medium term and the improvement of industry concentration in the long term." He told a Chinese reporter at a brokerage.
According to fan Kunxiang, the first half of 2022 is already at the end of a round of completion cycle, which means that the short-term needs of relevant companies are guaranteed. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the national real estate policy has been fine tuned to ensure the reasonable housing demand of residents, which is beneficial to stable sales and new construction.
At present, the valuation of leading household and home appliance companies is only ten to twenty times. "Although the performance growth rate is not fast, it has high cost performance, which is also a promising direction." He said.
Bao Jiamin, chief strategist of Xiangcai fund, believes that reasonable housing needs such as rigid demand and improvement are expected to receive comprehensive attention, together with the benefits of white electricity and kitchen electricity with strong post cyclical attributes of real estate. "The overall household appliance industry is still at a relatively low level of historical valuation, and the phased configuration has a high cost performance."
Yuanxin Yongfeng fund is relatively cautious about the future trend and believes that the household appliance industry as a whole is in a stage of stable development. "The annual consumption of big white power is small, and the growth fluctuates, which is less related to the whole real estate cycle. The demand of small household appliance industry is good, but the competition is fierce."
The household sector is closely related to the completion cycle of the real estate, which lags behind the new construction cycle by 1-2 years. "It is expected that the completion of this year may increase by a small single digit, but there may be a risk of double-digit decline next year."
new energy vehicles have a good prospect at the consumer side
In the view of fan Kunxiang, manager of HSBC Jinxin fund, in terms of policy, due to the gradual increase of the requirements of "stable growth", creating a good consumption atmosphere has become a consideration for central ministries and local governments. In this context, measures such as encouraging new energy vehicles to go to the countryside are of practical significance.
Jingshun Great Wall Fund told the Chinese reporter of the securities firm that the share price of the new energy automobile industry chain fluctuated greatly, mainly due to the continuous rise of the price of new energy metals recently, which brought greater cost pressure to the industry chain. The rise in the price of new energy metals has been transmitted to the whole vehicle, and most Chinese car enterprises have announced the price rise of terminal whole vehicles to alleviate the cost pressure.
The rising price of terminals has triggered concerns about demand in the market. However, in the view of Jingshun Great Wall Fund, short-term supply and demand is not enough to affect the development of the industry. With the gradual recovery of demand, we are still optimistic about alpha investment opportunities in the new energy vehicle sector.
long term consumption upgrading is still the main theme
Yuanxin Yongfeng Fund believes that since the beginning of the year, there has been upward pressure on prices in the upstream. At the same time, the epidemic has escalated in many places, which still suppresses demand.
Against this background, we are more optimistic about the brand strong, smooth price transmission sectors, such as high-end Baijiu, competitive choice of the best consumption, and pig breeding sector.
Specifically, the demand for high-end Baijiu is relatively small. Although the high outlook of the industry has lasted for a long time, the risk of sharp decline is very low.
Enterprises with good competition pattern and strong brand strength have increased since the fourth quarter of last year. In the second quarter of 2022, these leaders in dairy products, snacks, beer and other sectors with good price transmission may have a better performance.
The pig breeding sector is currently arranged on the left. Considering the profit and market value space at the top of the cycle, some excellent enterprises are worth arranging more than a year in advance.
The the Great Wall Fund said that it is optimistic that the investment opportunities of Baijiu and high-quality consumer goods brands will be welcomed by Davies.
First of all, China's quality consumer goods have fallen to a central range of 20-30 times. Considering the growth rate and roe, they have obvious benefits even in global comparison.
Secondly, the resilience of the economy will gradually appear with the promotion of the steady growth policy and the scientific prevention and control of the epidemic, and the flexibility of performance of listed companies will be gradually reflected.
Finally, Jingshun Great Wall Fund believes that consumption upgrading is still the main theme of a long cycle in the future.
