Global stock market turmoil, today (March 11) A shares were dragged down again, and the confidence built by yesterday's rebound was also burned. The three major stock indexes opened low across the board, once pulled up in the session, but also quickly suffered pressure, fell again, and maintained a weak shock pattern.
From the disk point of view, the "taking medicine" market continued, the industry and concept sector fell more or less, and the local profit-making effect plummeted. It is worth mentioning that in the agriculture, animal husbandry, feeding and fishery sector, Jinjian Cereals Industry Co.Ltd(600127) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) , Hainan Shennong Technology Co.Ltd(300189) , Zhanjiang Guolian Aquatic Products Co.Ltd(300094) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Gansu Yasheng Industrial (Group) Co.Ltd(600108) , etc. rose ahead.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that in the future, the stock index is likely to maintain sideways volatility and be ready for consolidation. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the changes in policy, capital and external market.
At present, under the background of scattered A-share hotspots and intensified sector rotation, possible investment opportunities are hidden. Select some institutional research reports. Let's see what themes are available for reference.
[Topic 1] covid-19 drugs
Guosheng Securities pointed out that medicine has entered the layout range, which can be moderately optimistic, and the medium and short term is still bottom-up. Up to now, the "double high problem" has been obviously solved, and the conditions for bottom rebound have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not yet found a clear main line, and the oversold rebound may become the strongest direction in stages.
The agency further mentioned that our idea is to select individual stocks from bottom to top. There are three points to sum up: 1) select individual stocks with "fundamental common sense valuation oversold and discount", in other words, they fall to the second-order guide of irrational valuation range. Here you can see more pharmaceutical science and technology innovation with obvious overall decline and individual stocks with high identification & clean chip structure. 2) Excavate stocks with high growth or may exceed expectations in the first quarter, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) The sub areas of "domestic demand policy immunity" and "foreign demand is relatively rigid" are selected to take into account the comprehensive and sudden impact of the current geopolitical environment and medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as self-control, China covid-19 therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, adult class II vaccine, rehabilitation, cdmo, etc.
AVIC Securities said that according to the announcement and annual report previously released by Pfizer, the price of a single course of paxlovid is $529. It is expected that the revenue of covid-19 oral medicine will reach $22 billion in covid-19 treatment products in 2022. Covid-19 oral medicine, as the last puzzle in the current covid-19 treatment industry chain, has broad market prospects. In addition to the innovation expectations given by enterprises directly involved in covid-19 oral drug research and development, China's CXO industrial chain has a complete integrated chain with obvious cost and efficiency advantages. The order announcements issued by some enterprises also confirm our previous view. In the short term, it is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the R & D of covid-19 small molecule drugs, and pay attention to the listed companies deeply involved in the supply chain of covid-19 preventive drugs, including Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) -u, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) and Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) etc.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) believes that considering the background of the pharmaceutical industry, on the one hand, the uncertainty caused by the continuous implementation of the centralized procurement policy this year (centralized procurement of consumables, national procurement, alliance procurement, etc.), on the other hand, the short-term pharmaceutical industry sector has not seen clear favorable policies / changes, and there is no upward momentum in the short term. It is advisable to look at the quantity of scenery. The valuation of many pharmaceutical companies has reached a very reasonable range. The uncertainty of changes brought by policies makes many investors unable to start. We suggest the direction configuration of this year: Traditional Chinese medicine (policy friendly + undervalued value) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream + other directions to find the target from bottom to top.
[Theme 2] agricultural planting
East Asia Qianhai Securities said that the policy east wind blows frequently, and the dark time has passed. It is recommended that the seed industry and breeding sector. Recently, the central government officially launched the collection and storage of 40000 tons. Although the amount is small and the bottom supporting effect is limited, it still releases the signal of bottom building of pig price. Pig prices continued to fluctuate at the bottom, superimposed on the geographical situation, increased breeding costs, the deregulation of production capacity is expected to accelerate, and the inflection point of the cycle is expected to accelerate. In February 22nd, the No. 1 central document issued the document that in 2022, the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat should be raised appropriately, and the corn and soybean producers subsidies and rice subsidy policies should be stabilized. The grain prices of corn and soybean will be superimposed. The protection of grain yield will increase the enthusiasm of grain production, and the planting area is expected to increase. The penetration of high-quality seeds is expected to increase. Seed enterprises with superior and improved seed reserves are expected to increase both volume and price.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) mentioned that for the global food price, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) is at an all-time high, and the boom is expected to continue. This round of global food price rise is mainly driven by tight supply and excessive currency. Major agricultural production areas such as the United States and Brazil have been impacted by the dry weather, and the consumption ratio of major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) stocks such as corn and soybeans has continued to decline. In addition, the recovery of feed demand and the excess currency caused by the epidemic also contributed to the rise of global food prices. In addition, the geopolitical situation increased the expectation of tight circulation of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as wheat and corn, and the mood continued to drive Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices higher. Looking forward to the future, La Nina may be repeated. The covid-19 and geopolitical situation are not clear, the tension between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the global food price boom is expected to continue.
For China's food prices, rations are absolutely safe. Wheat may drive corn prices higher in 2022. 1) Forage food: the fundamentals of corn have eased slightly, but the supply and demand are still tight; Soybeans are dependent on imports. Considering the trend of global food prices, it remains optimistic in the follow-up. 2) Ration: the average inventory consumption ratio of corn, wheat and rice is close to more than 80%, and the safety margin is sufficient. The fundamentals are optimistic about wheat. In the winter of 2021, there are problems of late sowing and low germination rate in the main wheat producing areas, and the yield may be reduced in 2022. Due to the substitution relationship between wheat and corn, corn prices are expected to strengthen. 3) White sugar: China's output has declined, and the gap between supply and demand continues. Driven by the additional import cost of distribution, the sugar price will follow the reversal of the energy storage cycle of the international sugar price and remain optimistic in the follow-up.
The agency further analyzed that it is optimistic about the upward trend of grain price boom in 2022. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector. On the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle, so it is optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pig sector. Specific targets: 1) planting sector: recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , and pay attention to Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) . 2) Relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) section: recommend Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) and pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.Ltd(601118) .
3) Seed sector: recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc. 4) Recommendations for pig breeding sector: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
[Theme 3] pork
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) said that the pig sector is still in an important layout window period: 1) the elimination of fertile sows has continued, and the number of fertile sows has decreased month by month since July last year. Even during the sharp rebound of pig prices from October to November, the elimination has not stopped. In the stage from expected loss to intensified real loss, the bearing capacity of the breeding industry is greatly weakened, The depopulation of fertile sows will be strengthened. Therefore, it is currently at the inflection point of depopulation;
2) the trend of double bottom of pig price is clear. From the experience of previous cycles, the three complete pig cycles experienced since 2006 are double bottom. In the first half of this year, the contradiction between supply and demand is further intensified. At the same time, the pressure on the cost side is increased and the breeding loss is intensified, which is expected to gradually bring about the double bottom;
3) in terms of valuation, although the sector has rebounded recently, the valuation is still in the bottom area, with sufficient upward elasticity. On the whole, it is still an important investment window for the sector. Continue to recommend the pig sector, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the capacity reduction continues, and continues to recommend the aquaculture sector. The market pays too much attention to the short-term capacity data and is worried that the logic of capacity clearing will be broken. We believe that capacity clearing is unstoppable. The short-term data is an important reference, but not the main support we recommend. Due to the sample size, survivor bias effect, seasonal factors, etc., the month on month increase or decrease of short-term production capacity data coexist, so it is difficult to obtain the certainty of the conclusion and the safety of logic.
In the medium term, the focus is on the continuous deterioration of the industry ecology. Pig prices continued to grind to the bottom in February and are far lower than the cash cost of the industry, so the direction of loss cash flow to drive capacity clearing is clear. Therefore, we believe that the pig price in the first half of the year will be lower than the industry expectation, and the industry capital is not loose, but tight. We will continue to recommend the pig breeding sector.
[theme 4] prefabricated dishes
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) previously mentioned that China has ushered in a node where the proportion of foreign food has accelerated, and the demand for catering convenience and safety has increased. We are optimistic about the standardization opportunities in all links of the catering supply chain. The proportion of external food on the demand side accelerated, and the requirements for catering convenience and safety increased; The demand for cost reduction at the supply side is strong. The chain and national expansion need the support of modern supply chain. The resonance of supply and demand catalyzes the standardization of catering supply chain. There is room for Standardization in all links of China's catering supply chain, including upstream agriculture, midstream food manufacturing, downstream catering and circulation.
Prefabricated vegetables help meal enterprises reduce costs and increase efficiency, and have broad application prospects. The use of prefabricated dishes can effectively save the labor and energy costs of catering enterprises. According to the data of China chain operation association, the net interest rate of typical restaurants can be increased by 7pct after switching to prefabricated dishes. It is expected that when the demand side requires convenience and efficiency, and the supply side requires cost reduction and efficiency increase, it will have a broad application prospect in the catering field in the future.
BOC International Securities pointed out that because of its convenient and rapid restoration of dishes and meeting cooking needs, prefabricated dishes have gradually been favored by consumers and entered thousands of households during the Spring Festival in 2022. At present, the industry is in a period of rapid growth, and enterprises in various fields have set foot in succession to jointly expand the market. (1) There are five types of enterprises involved in the industry: Catering School (Shuhai, Kungfu fresh food exchange), raw material school (Shuanghui, Shengnong), professional school ( Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ), quick freezing school ( Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) ) and retail school. At present, the company is small in scale and has no products sold through all channels nationwide.
(2) according to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the retail scale of the catering industry is 4.7 trillion, and the prefabricated dishes are expected to be about 300 billion (AI media consulting). The market space is large. China's Prefabricated dishes started late and are in a period of rapid growth.
(3) among the quick-frozen enterprises involved in prefabricated vegetables, Anjing is better than channel construction, which can achieve rapid product distribution Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) pay attention to product research and development and restore the quality of dishes. In the early stage of the development of the industry, whether focusing on channels or products, the enterprise will gain the first opportunity through its own advantages, jointly expand the market and enjoy the development dividend of the industry.
