Daily theme strategy discussion, summarize the views of the eight securities companies, reveal the current situation of the industry, observe the market trend, and feel the pulse of A-Shares for you in advance.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the boom of high global food prices is expected to continue! Optimistic about planting and seed sector
The global food price, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) is at an all-time high, and the boom is expected to continue. This round of global food price rise is mainly driven by tight supply and excessive currency. Major agricultural production areas such as the United States and Brazil have been impacted by the dry weather, and the consumption ratio of major Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) stocks such as corn and soybeans has continued to decline. In addition, the recovery of feed demand and the excess currency caused by the epidemic also contributed to the rise of global food prices. In addition, the geopolitical situation increased the expectation of tight circulation of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) such as wheat and corn, and the mood continued to drive Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices higher. Looking forward to the future, La Nina may be repeated. The covid-19 and geopolitical situation are not clear, the tension between supply and demand is difficult to ease, and the global food price boom is expected to continue.
China’s grain prices and rations are absolutely safe. Wheat may drive corn prices higher in 2022. 1) Forage food: the fundamentals of corn have eased slightly, but the supply and demand are still tight; Soybeans are dependent on imports. Considering the trend of global food prices, it remains optimistic in the follow-up. 2) Ration: the average inventory consumption ratio of corn, wheat and rice is close to more than 80%, and the safety margin is sufficient. The fundamentals are optimistic about wheat. In the winter of 2021, there are problems of late sowing and low germination rate in the main wheat producing areas, and the yield may be reduced in 2022. Due to the substitution relationship between wheat and corn, corn prices are expected to strengthen. 3) White sugar: China’s output has declined, and the gap between supply and demand continues. Driven by the additional import cost of distribution, the sugar price will follow the reversal of the energy storage cycle of the international sugar price and remain optimistic in the follow-up.
Optimistic about the upward trend of grain price boom in 2022. On the one hand, it is good for the planting and seed sector. On the other hand, the rise of the cost of feed raw materials may accelerate the reversal of the pig price cycle, so it is optimistic about the investment opportunities of the pig sector. Specific targets: 1) planting sector: recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , and pay attention to Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) . 2) Relevant Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) section: recommend Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) and pay attention to China Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co.Ltd(601118) . 3) Seed sector: recommended Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , etc. 4) Recommendations for pig breeding sector: Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) , COFCO Jiakang, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , etc.
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) : the rising price of raw materials has further raised the breeding cost, and pay attention to the allocation opportunities of pig breeding sector
The rise of bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices will have a significant impact on the whole agricultural industry chain. Pig breeding: the rise in the price of raw materials has led to a further rise in breeding costs, and the production capacity is expected to be further fermented. Pay attention to the allocation opportunities of pig breeding sector. Feed: the rise of bulk raw materials tests the purchasing and formulation technical ability of feed enterprises. The inefficient production capacity of feed enterprises is cleared or accelerated, and the concentration is expected to improve. Pay attention to Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Wellhope Foods Co.Ltd(603609) . Planting chain: price rise or boost the sales price of leading agricultural reclamation enterprises and seed enterprises, and pay attention to Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , Heilongjiang Agriculture Company Limited(600598) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ; At the same time, in the context of China’s increasing dependence on imports, to improve China’s agricultural technology level, the promotion of GM commercialization is still a policy orientation, focusing on Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) .
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : it is recommended to pay attention to pig enterprises with relatively loose capital chain
After the Spring Festival, pig prices fell as scheduled, adding upward pressure on costs, and the industry continued to reduce production capacity. Considering that the hardware production capacity of the industry is gradually put into operation after the peak construction, and the number of reserve breeding pigs is sufficient, it is expected that the height of the next cycle is difficult to be the same as that in 19 / 20, and the cycle elasticity or return to the normal level, it is suggested to focus on the multidimensional screening targets such as operation and management level, capital chain security, marketing growth elasticity and valuation matching, so as to weaken the pig price game. At this stage, it is suggested to focus on Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) and so on. The reversal of Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) dilemma is still improving. Among small and medium-sized pig enterprises, it is suggested to pay attention to companies with relatively loose capital chain, and pay attention to Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) , Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , etc.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : stand at the current time point! Grasp the two main lines of pigs and seeds
Grasp the two main lines of pig seed and pig. Standing at the current time point, we suggest: 1. Actively layout the reversal of pig price: the turning point of capacity removal in pig breeding has appeared in September 2021, and it is expected that the earliest cycle of this year is expected to reverse. At present, the market has determined the strategy of taking the production capacity as the main reference factor for investment, rather than the pig price. Therefore, there is a reverse correlation between the decline of pig price and the rise of stock price, and the adjustment of stock price when the decline of pig price slows down / rises.
Considering that in the first half of 2022, the pig price will continue to decline due to the supply pressure driven by the release of production capacity, and the loss of breeding may accelerate the depolymerization of sows, we continue to actively recommend the pig breeding sector. The stock selection strategies we recommend are as follows: 1) the self breeding and self raising leading pig enterprises that have verified their cost advantages and expansion ability in multiple cycles are preferred. 2) Operate pig enterprises that have reached the inflection point, such as Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) etc. 3) Cost effective piglets with high expansion certainty; 4) Actively grasp the feed leader Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
2. Closely observe the reform of seed industry: short-term seed price rise is expected to drive profit growth; In the medium and long term, the liberalization of GM and the catalysis of policies are still gradually advancing. The seed industry has been on the right side of the boom inflection point and on the left side of technological change. Continue to recommend Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , and pay attention to the leaders of rice and wheat planting.
open source Securities: increased risk of global food security. It is suggested to focus on the target of A-share high-quality food
The reversal of pig cycle is imminent, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices continue to rise. In 2022, the reversal of pig cycle is imminent, and the layout of capacity removal period. Recommend Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , which has the leading breeding cost; Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , with accelerated recovery of production indicators and reduced costs; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , with excellent performance flexibility; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) , which has the advantages of breeding cost and capital; Relevant beneficial object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The risk of global food security increased, and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices continued to rise. Affected by the recent geopolitical situation, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) supply and trade stability have been negatively affected. It is suggested to focus on Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) , the target of A-share high-quality grain. The company’s main business is rice and wheat planting, seed production and sales, rice, grain and oil processing and product sales.
Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) : continuous recommendation of pig sector with sufficient safety margin
With sufficient safety margin, continue to recommend pig sector. Investment suggestion: the pig sector is still in an important layout window period at present: 1) the elimination of fertile sows has continued, and the elimination of fertile sows has decreased month by month since July last year. Even during the sharp rebound of pig prices from October to November, the affordability of the breeding industry is greatly weakened from the expected loss to the aggravation of real loss, The depopulation of fertile sows will be strengthened. Therefore, it is currently at the inflection point of depopulation; 2) The trend of double bottom of pig price is clear. From the experience of previous cycles, the three complete pig cycles experienced since 2006 are double bottom. In the first half of this year, the contradiction between supply and demand is further intensified. At the same time, the pressure on the cost side is increased and the breeding loss is intensified, which is expected to gradually bring about double bottom; 3) In terms of valuation, although the sector has rebounded recently, the valuation is still in the bottom area, with sufficient upward elasticity. On the whole, it is still an important investment window for the sector. Continue to recommend the pig sector, focusing on the leading Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , followed by the second tier pig enterprises New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) , Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) , etc.
East Asia Qianhai Securities: Policy east wind blows frequently! The dark hour has passed, and the recommended seed industry and breeding sector
The policy is that the east wind blows frequently, and the dark time has passed. The seed industry and breeding sector are recommended. Recently, the central government officially launched the collection and storage of 40000 tons. Although the amount is small and the bottom supporting effect is limited, it still releases the signal of bottom building of pig price. Pig prices continued to fluctuate at the bottom, superimposed on the geographical situation, increased breeding costs, the deregulation of production capacity is expected to accelerate, and the inflection point of the cycle is expected to accelerate. In February 22nd, the No. 1 central document issued the document that in 2022, the minimum purchase price of rice and wheat should be raised appropriately, and the corn and soybean producers subsidies and rice subsidy policies should be stabilized. The grain prices of corn and soybean will be superimposed. The protection of grain yield will increase the enthusiasm of grain production, and the planting area is expected to increase. The penetration of high-quality seeds is expected to increase. Seed enterprises with superior and improved seed reserves are expected to increase both volume and price.
In terms of investment suggestions, it is suggested to pay attention to breeding enterprises with significant cost control advantages and stable operation. Enterprises with core variety advantages are expected to take advantage of the policy to continuously improve their market share. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading seed industry with obvious variety advantages. The rise of bulk Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price may affect the feed processing cost, and the pattern of feed industry is expected to accelerate to the head. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) .
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: focus on investment opportunities brought by policy catalysis and long-term performance improvement of seed industry
For pig breeding: the capacity reduction continues, and the breeding sector continues to be recommended. The market pays too much attention to the short-term capacity data and is worried that the logic of capacity clearing will be broken. We believe that capacity clearing is unstoppable. The short-term data is an important reference, but not the main support we recommend. Due to the sample size, survivor bias effect, seasonal factors, etc., the month on month increase or decrease of short-term production capacity data coexist, so it is difficult to obtain the certainty of the conclusion and the safety of logic. In the medium term, the focus is on the continuous deterioration of the industry ecology. Pig prices continued to grind to the bottom in February and are far lower than the cash cost of the industry, so the direction of loss cash flow to drive capacity clearing is clear. Therefore, we believe that the pig price in the first half of the year will be lower than the industry expectation, and the industry capital is not loose, but tight. We will continue to recommend the pig breeding sector.
For the planting industry chain: both short-term and long-term catalysis, continue to recommend the planting industry chain. The boom in oil prices driven by fluctuations in the external situation is transmitted from demand (substitution) and cost to planting Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , and the boom is expected to continue. The external turmoil has led to a rapid rise in global oil prices. From the perspective of bioenergy, the demand for alternative energy is expected to rise, and the prices of corn and sugar are expected to continue to rise; From the perspective of rising costs, the rising price of crude oil promotes the price of agricultural materials, which in turn promotes the cost of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) planting, and finally transmits to the price level, which is reflected in the rising price of agricultural materials and the rising price of grain.
Pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the policy catalysis and long-term performance improvement of the seed industry. The way of food security requires the revitalization of the seed industry. This macro logic will run through the next few years. At the beginning of the year, it is a traditional policy, paying attention to the potential catalysis such as document No. 1 Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices remain high as a whole, driving up the demand of the seed industry and accelerating the process of destocking, and corn seed prices are expected to continue to boost. Therefore, in terms of growth, we should focus on the improvement of the competitive environment of genetically modified and improved varieties, help leading companies to open up growth in terms of total amount and pattern, and continue to recommend the genetically modified corn seed industry.
The investment recommendations come from the investment recommendations, and the recommended pig farming sector: the Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) \\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , etc. Recommended planting chain corn seed industry targets: Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) high, recommended target Cofco Sugar Holding Co.Ltd(600737) , beneficiary target Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Recommend three faucets Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) , Fujian Sunner Development Co.Ltd(002299) .
