Unknowingly, 2021 of A-Shares has become history. According to the data, the total turnover of the two cities in 2021 reached 257.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 51.04 trillion yuan over 2020 (206.12 trillion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 24.76%. In addition, the annual net inflow of northbound funds was 432.17 billion yuan, setting a new historical record. Among them, the net inflow of Shanghai Stock connect was 193.728 billion yuan and that of Shenzhen Stock connect was 238.442 billion yuan.
In 2021, the market value of listed companies was 91.2 trillion yuan, an increase of nearly 11 trillion yuan compared with the end of 2020. According to China’s settlement data, by the end of November 2021, 196 million natural person investors had opened A-share accounts. Deducting the total market value of Listed Companies in 2021 from the new shares listed this year to obtain a comparable total market value, plus this year’s cash dividends and deducting the market value of private placement, according to this calculation, the per capita profit of A-share investors in this year is nearly 50000 yuan.
In terms of index performance, in 2021, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3639.77 points, with an annual increase of 4.8%, the lowest 3312.72 points and the highest 3731.69 points; The Shenzhen composite index closed at 14857.35 points, up 2.67%, with a minimum of 13252.24 points and a maximum of 16293.09 points; The gem index closed at 3322.67, up 12.02%, with a minimum of 2603.94 and a maximum of 3576.12.
Looking back on the whole year, A-share hot plates appeared frequently, and medical beauty, Huawei automobile, phosphorus chemical industry, salt lake lithium extraction, yuancosmic and other plates successively appeared, becoming a hot spot that investors can’t ignore this year. Among them, phosphorus chemical industry dominated the whole market with an increase of 101%. In addition to phosphorus chemical industry, the annual increase of lithium extraction from Salt Lake, hydrogen energy, energy storage and silicone also exceeded 70%.
Standing on the tuyere, pigs can fly! How many of the top ten tuyeres in 2021 belong to you?
No.1 phosphorus chemical
The strong trend of phosphorus chemical industry this year benefited from the fact that lithium iron phosphate battery surpassed ternary lithium battery this year and re boarded the champion of power battery market. Phosphorus accounts for nearly 40% of the main cost of lithium iron phosphate, including phosphate rock in the upstream mining section, phosphoric acid and yellow phosphorus in the middle reaches, purified phosphoric acid and iron phosphate in the downstream products. Among them, especially the upstream raw material yellow phosphorus, affected by “double control”, rose sharply from May to September this year, maintaining a 30% rise every month, and the highest price in September exceeded 80000 yuan / ton.
Stimulated by the news of rising prices, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) phosphorus chemical index has risen by nearly 101%, and the share prices of industry leaders Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) have advanced by leaps and bounds, with a cumulative increase of more than 200% throughout the year, and the highest increase of Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) has reached 930%. Some business people predict that the overall trend of tight supply of yellow phosphorus will remain unchanged in 2022, so the price will still show an upward trend.
Of course, some professionals pointed out that if the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery approaches or overtakes that of ternary battery due to the high price of raw materials and the rise of the price of iron phosphate in the future, and once the capacity after expansion is released, the industry will fall into a price war, which will have a negative impact on the development of iron phosphate industry.
No.2 lithium extraction from Salt Lake
Since the beginning of this year, the new energy vehicle market has ushered in explosive growth. The price of battery grade lithium carbonate, the main raw material of new energy vehicle power battery, is in the “third round of price increase” in the year. The average price at the beginning of the year is 50000 yuan / ton, and then in mid September, the market price is about 150000 yuan / ton. In December, the quotation has been close to 300000 yuan / ton since it exceeded 200000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with an increase of more than 30% in the month and more than 400% year-on-year. The price has set a new record. When the lithium price continues to rise, the lithium mine share price in the secondary market rises first and then declines. The lithium extraction plate in the salt lake peaked around September 15, Tibet Summit Resources Co.Ltd(600338) increased by more than 360%, Tibet Urban Development And Investment Co.Ltd(600773) increased by more than 420%, and Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) increased by more than 500%. After that, there was a deviation in the salt lake lithium extraction plate for more than three months. On the one hand, the stock price fell continuously, and on the other hand, the profit expectations of relevant enterprises continued to improve. It can be predicted that in the 2021 performance forecast disclosed next, the net profit of lithium salt in the fourth quarter of this year will be significantly higher than that in the third quarter. Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) believes that the lithium price continues to rise and the secondary market is weak. Just like the retrospect of the previous lithium price cycle, the stock price deviated from the fundamentals in the previous cycle, and the achievement is more critical. Looking forward to the lithium resources market, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that under the current background, the competitiveness of integrated enterprises with upstream resource guarantee and incremental resources is significantly stronger.
No.3 hydrogen energy
Hydrogen energy is one of the hot tracks this year. Under the background of successive policies on hydrogen energy industry chain, the hydrogen energy industry has also ushered in rapid development. According to incomplete statistics, Beijing, Hebei, Sichuan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia have successively issued special overall industrial development policies for hydrogen energy; Guangdong, Chongqing, Zhejiang and Henan have issued special policies for subdividing hydrogen fuel vehicles; Many other regions have included the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry in the 14th five year plan.
Hydrogen energy, as an important part of the new energy industry, has a broad market growth space in the future, and related concept stocks also rose sharply. Especially in the second half of the year, the plate opened the accelerated rise mode, and individual stocks performed well. The increase of Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) in the second half of the year was as high as 124%, Lanpec Technologies Limited(601798) also liked to mention the increase of 54%, and Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) increased as high as 258%.
According to the white paper on China’s hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry, the proportion of green hydrogen will increase from 3% to 15% from 2020 to 2030; In 2025, the output value of China’s hydrogen energy industry will reach 1 trillion yuan, and the demand for hydrogen will be close to 60 million tons, accounting for 10% of the terminal energy system, of which the proportion of green hydrogen will further increase to 70%, and about 700 million tons of carbon dioxide will be reduced. Facing the trillion market, the relevant industrial chains bred around hydrogen energy will benefit. Favorable policies superimpose the long-term development potential of the industry. At present, the upstream hydrogen production and supply, the midstream fuel cells and core components will take the lead in benefiting, and the downstream fuel cell application end may take time to conduct.
No.4 energy storage
Energy storage is an important foundation and key technology for building a new energy system. At present, the mainstream energy storage methods mainly include electrochemical energy storage and pumped storage, while China’s energy storage mainly comes from pumped storage and lithium battery energy storage in the field of new energy storage. Professionals said that the “14th five year plan” is a strategic critical period for implementing the “double carbon” goal, an important window period for China’s clean, low-carbon transformation and high-quality development of energy, and a rare opportunity period for the development of energy storage technology and industry.
Due to the broad growth space of the energy storage market, Huawei’s energy storage system, Ningde energy storage system, industrial and commercial energy storage system, super capacitor and electrochemical energy storage ushered in a sharp rise. Especially in the second half of the year, the energy storage sector also opened an accelerated rise mode, Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) increased by more than 100% in the second half of the year, and Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) also liked to increase by nearly 115%.
According to the guidance on accelerating the development of new energy storage (Draft for comments) jointly issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration, by 2025, new energy storage will realize the transformation from the initial stage of commercialization to large-scale development, and make great progress in low cost, high reliability and long life, with an installed capacity of more than 30 million KW. According to the white paper 2021 on energy storage industry released by Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) energy storage industry technology alliance, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage is about 3.27gw by the end of 2020. This means that in the next five years, the installed capacity of China’s new energy storage will have at least eight times the growth space.
No.5 silicone
The silicone sector saw a long-term rise from the beginning of the year to mid September. Similar to the coal sector, the high outlook of the silicone sector in the early stage also benefited from the continuous rise of silicone prices. With the collective correction of cyclical stocks in September, the silicone concept began to decline for nearly a month in mid and late September, and then continued to fluctuate until now. The Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) silicone index rose 74.61% this year. Among individual stocks, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Foshan Golden Milky Way Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300619) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) increased more than twice this year, and Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) , Zhejiang Xinan Chemical Indusyrial Group Co.Ltd(600596) , Tangshan Sunfar Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603938) , Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co.Ltd(002091) increased more than twice.
Looking back on the price trend of silicone this year, affected by dual control factors, industrial silicon and silicone rose rapidly in the first half of the year, but after October, the price of silicone fell rapidly, but there was at least 50% increase compared with the same period in 2020. Wanlian Securities pointed out that the demand for silicone in China is still weak and the market is bearish. Although downstream enterprises have the demand for goods, they are still cautious in procurement. The price of raw materials such as methanol and metal silicon on the cost side stopped falling and stabilized, but it is difficult to support the price of silicone. In addition, the large supply side manufacturers intend to ship and reduce inventory at the end of the year, the overall supply of silicone market exceeds demand, and the market price drops accordingly. Overall, it is expected that the short-term silicone market will continue to decline.
For the silicone sector next year, Wanlian securities recommends three main investment lines: 1. In the context of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2。 Rely on new energy, seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen its business cycle and improve its valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3。 During the 14th Five Year Plan period, new high value-added materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials.
No.6 wind power
The wind power sector is one of the hot tracks this year. The sector index also continued to rise this year, Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) wind power index increased by 55.8% throughout the year. Among individual stocks, China Southern Power Grid Energy Efficiency&Clean Energy Co.Ltd(003035) ranked first with an increase of 397% in the whole year, Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) increased by 327%, and Zhejiang Provincial New Energy Investment Group Co.Ltd(600032) , Sichuan New Energy Power Company Limited(000155) , Jiangsu Lixing General Steel Ball Co.Ltd(300421) increased more than twice. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the development of new energy industry chain has accelerated, among which the offshore wind power industry has developed the most rapidly. According to the report released by the all Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) consumption monitoring and early warning center, the offshore wind power was newly connected to the grid in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 227%. By the end of September, the cumulative installed capacity of offshore wind power in China had reached 13.19 million KW, a year-on-year increase of 75.7%.
At present, the cost reduction of wind power industry chain is the main trend. Caixin Securities pointed out that after the rush to install offshore wind power, the cost reduction in construction links, the expiration of subsidies forced the wind turbine manufacturers to reduce prices, the decline in the prices of bulk commodities such as upstream steel, the improvement of power generation efficiency of large MW wind turbines and the reduction of installation points will promote the continuous cost reduction trend of offshore wind power and onshore wind power.
The demand for cost reduction of wind power promotes the large-scale fan, which is expected to improve the material requirements and drive the growth of carbon fiber demand. Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) it is pointed out that the large-scale blade improves the requirements of lightweight and strength stiffness, thus driving the increase of carbon fiber demand. It is expected that the global demand for carbon fiber will reach 93400 tons in 2025 and the CAGR will be as high as 25% in 2020-2025.
No.7 Huawei automotive
This year, although Huawei has repeatedly stated that it will not build cars, it has not stopped its expansion and layout in the automotive field. On November 29, Huawei won 260000 square meters of industrial land in Dongguan Songshan Lake with 188 million yuan. The industrial type is intelligent automobile parts manufacturing. The total investment of the project will not be less than 2.4 billion yuan. Focusing on the automotive field, Huawei automotive Bureau has gradually deepened – from producing and manufacturing parts for smart cars, to working with BAIC, Chang’an and GAC to build a new business model of Huawei inside, and then to selling cars through their own channels.
At the beginning of the year, after the initial high-profile publicity and the blessing of Huawei’s concept, the share price of Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) soared from 17 yuan / share at the beginning of the year to around 83 yuan / share. Unfortunately, the sales volume of Salis sF5 model has been poor so far. Only about 7000 vehicles were sold in the first 11 months of this year, which is less than the sales volume of “Wei Xiaoli” in one month. Under the influence of poor sales, Chongqing Sokon Industry Group Stock Co.Ltd(601127) also sustained a sideways shock for half a year.
In the long run, the organization is optimistic about Huawei’s automobile sector for a long time. Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) believes that Huawei has a strong technical accumulation in the ICT field. It has launched a comprehensive attack in the three links of “cloud management end” in the automotive field, and has laid out five modules: intelligent driving, intelligent cockpit, intelligent Internet connection, intelligent electric and intelligent vehicle cloud. The full stack intelligent vehicle solution has strong market competitiveness, Long term optimistic about Huawei’s auto industry chain and Huawei inside business model.
No.8 yuan universe
The yuan universe concept sector continued to be active this year. The Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) yuan universe index rose 45% throughout the year. Among individual stocks, Shenzhen Zqgame Co.Ltd(300052) rose 253% during the year, and the annual growth of Avit.Ltd(300264) , Gettopacoustic Co.Ltd(002655) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Dalian Zeus Entertainment Co.Ltd(002354) , Hengxin Shambala Culture Co.Ltd(300081) doubled. On the one hand, because it covers a wide range of industrial chains and has broad prospects, it has become the favor and layout of major Internet giants and software and hardware manufacturers. On the other hand, because various visions are difficult to land in a short time, metauniverse has also been controversial in the market. However, in the A-share market, yuancosmos concept stocks have soared this year, individual stocks in the industrial chain have risen in a large area, and even some popular stocks have been on the board for many days. Driven by the concept of meta universe, virtual digital people, virtual reality, games and other sectors also shine in the fourth quarter.
New era Securities believes that there are several directions that can be grasped around the meta universe. First, new hardware terminals and consumer arvr devices can be compared with the situation of mobile phones; Second, the new operating system or operating platform built on arvr devices, represented by Microsoft, Google, apple, wechat and other platform companies; Third, in addition to the transferred entertainment and enterprise industrial applications, or new 100 million volume applications will be generated, and the business model will be extended by changing the new interaction mode of connection and experience.
In many directions, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) points out that virtual human has rich application scenarios and faster commercialization, so it has better investment opportunities. Demand side: tiktok and virtual master Liu Yexi’s demand for virtual digital people can be seen from the jitter of the jitter and the virtual phone maker’s demand for the virtual digital people. The market demand of virtual people is greater than that of the B. Looking forward to 2022, we think it will be a year for the gradual implementation of virtual business, and we suggest paying attention to the direction of virtual human live broadcast, virtual idol, virtual brand image, virtual space, etc.
No.9 coal
The coal sector fluctuated sharply this year, and the Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) coal mining and processing index rose 42.42% in the whole year. On the whole, it can be divided into three stages. In the first three quarters, abundant global liquidity led to the collective strengthening of bulk commodities, coupled with the contraction of coal supply, the coal price continued to strengthen, and the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures broke a record high. Benefiting from the continuous rise of coal prices, the plate index rose sharply, of which the rise was the most vigorous in August and September. From mid October to mid November, under the background of the policy of increasing coal production and ensuring supply, the coal price began to fall, and the plate index also fluctuated and fell. Until mid November, the investment sentiment of the sector has rebounded from the bottom, with a slight shock and a rise. Among the individual stocks, Yankuang energy, Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Shan Xi Hua Yang Group New Energy Co.Ltd(600348) doubled.
In terms of policy, in early December, the national coal fair announced the draft for comments on the signing and performance scheme of long-term coal contracts in 2022. It is reported that this is the first time to raise the benchmark price of the long-term coal association after the implementation of the long-term coal association mechanism in 2017, and give a clear floating range. Shengang Securities pointed out that this adjustment partially filled the price difference between Changxie coal and spot coal, and allowed the coal price to fluctuate in a wider range. In the early stage, the pessimistic expectation of the market on the strong supervision of Changxie coal price has been significantly alleviated, and a more reasonable Changxie price will also help to stabilize the fluctuation range and expectation of spot price. If the scheme is finally implemented, Industry profit expectations are expected to improve significantly.
In addition, the transformation of coal enterprises is also a key investment point worthy of attention. At present, some coal enterprises have begun to layout new energy power and new chemical materials business. Guosheng Securities believes that most coal enterprises have thermal power and chemical operation experience, and there is no great obstacle to the transformation of “new energy + new materials”. At present, about 1 / 3 of the listed coal enterprises are involved in thermal power operation and have rich power operation experience. In addition, under the background of “clean and efficient utilization of coal” strongly encouraged by the state, coal enterprises may extend the current chemical industry chain and vigorously transform to new chemical materials in accordance with the development direction of high-end green and low-carbon.
No.10 Yimei
The medical and beauty sector can be divided into two time nodes: the first half of the year and the second half of the year. In the first half of the year, the medical and beauty sector continued to strengthen. In June, the sector index fluctuated lower and began to stabilize and fluctuate in August. Wanlian Securities pointed out that since the beginning of June, the medical and American sector has ushered in a significant adjustment. Product innovation + policy supervision are the two main themes. On the one hand, the market’s expectation of product innovation drives up the valuation of the sector, on the other hand, the fear of policy risk intensifies, resulting in the valuation correction. The Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) medical and American sector index rose by 40.3 this year. Among individual stocks, Harbin Medisan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002900) increased by 127% during the year, with Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co.Ltd(002762) , Chongqing Taiji Industry (Group) Co.Ltd(600129) , Anhui Huilong Agricultural Means Of Production .Co.Ltd(002556) among the top.
With the upgrading of consumption and the improvement of medical and American penetration, the medical and American industry has flourished in recent years. According to the data of Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) , the market scale of China’s medical and American market will reach 19.5 billion yuan in 2020 and 311.5 billion yuan in 2023. With the rapid growth of market scale, the medical and beauty industry has also ushered in two major pain points, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) pointed out that first, institutions are mixed, the phenomenon of non-compliance / illegality is serious, and the information between consumers and institutions is asymmetric. Second, the cost of getting customers is high, and the marketing homogenization efficiency is low.
With the continuous increase of relevant policies in various medical and beauty industries and the acceleration of industry standardization, industry leaders are expected to benefit. Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that the main investment line still focuses on the leading enterprises with excellent fundamentals. In addition, there are still many vicissitudes of “low valuation and excellent fundamentals” in the track. It is suggested to actively explore the opportunities of small tickets with high elasticity. Suggested key layout: 1) the leader with high certainty of performance growth, fast compound growth in the next two years and fast digestion of valuation. 2) The small ticket with low value and high elasticity has fast performance growth and good growth, and is in the “small lotus only exposed sharp corner” in the industry. The follow-up is expected to usher in a new era.
2021 is about to pass. If you can accurately step on these super tuyeres and achieve a “small goal”, it may not be just a dream. If you don’t buy the tuyere plate, you may only sink in the “mediocre” plate. It is hoped that in the coming 2022, we will establish the main line thinking, accept the strong plate in thinking, understand the power of trend, and finally successfully seize the throat of wealth and make a lot of money!
(Financial Associated Press)
